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afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,861
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2012, 10:02:37 AM » |
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It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.
I'm not seeing any evidence of a drop off. It might have moved Romney closer, but not over the top.
Looking at Rassmussen and working back, when last Tuesday fell off and the Wed-Fri sample favoured Romney by 49 to 47 that means Romney had a huge advantage in the Friday sample which seems consistent with what pollsters like PP were saying. The Thursday to Saturday sample showed the margin as steady which means Obama probably had to have had a Saturday sample as good (relatively speaking) as his pre-debate Wednesday sample (he may have led that days sample). For the race to now be tied today it means that the Sunday sample had to been at least equally strong. If Friday was a BIG sample for Romney (so much so that it caused most of the four point jump) then that sample falls off tomorrow. If Obama has an average to good day today then he is likely to take the lead tomorrow. If he as a very good day today he could find himself back up to a 2 point lead. That would constitute, given what we know about Rasmussen a return to the status quo. Still all hypothetical of course.
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