National Tracking Poll Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 309418 times)
argentarius
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« on: April 16, 2012, 05:21:13 PM »

For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.
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argentarius
Jr. Member
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Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2012, 09:56:46 AM »

For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.

Uh, nope. While he prevailed by 2.4% in the PV, Bush would have lost Ohio if you moved about 60k votes to the other side. In 1876, Tilden won the PV with over 3%.

In theory you could obtain a majority of the EVs with only around 24% of the PV.

Again, the PV is useless.
Theoretically, yes, but in reality, national polls are an indicator of how the states will vote. 1876 was a long time ago and Tilden racked up huge margins in many states, the likes of which we will not see this year, apart from DC, maybe Utah.
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