National Tracking Poll Thread

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Quote from the article.  

Romney’s has lead by four or five points for three consecutive days. That’s the largest advantage enjoyed by either candidate in over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.

It's happening..........it's happening..........

I hope the trash talking Dem war room will be able to sleep nights, but I suspect they will need some sleeping pills.  I'm sure they are getting very restless.  

Yes, very restless indeed.

What next from the cheap shot low lifes of Team Obama, why Ann Romney cannot be First Lady because she has MS?

Calm down Winfield, your hackness is showing. You know that no one takes outlier Rasmussen seriously. The pure fact that at the bottom of every post they have to claim that they are unbiased with "quotes" from Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter shows their bias.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The fact that it seems to be back to being a tie/within the margin of error is not good news for Obama.

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

Gallup and Rasmussen didn't show those bumps so no, Obama shouldn't be worried. It was only the National Polls that showed it, not the Daily Trackers. And Nate Silver says that Gallup has been a bit more Republican-a leaning this cycle for some odd reason. Usually their quite accurate.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46

There's something funky going on with Gallup. Rasmussen has had his approval between 47-50 for a while now. But Gallup seems to have him falling a lot lately. And he hasn't been in the lead in over two weeks.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

Actually, yes he does.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

Actually, yes he does.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Uhh..you're citing an article that is TWO YEARS OLD. I'm citing one that is 2 months old. Nice try though, Clinton96. I have difficulty taking seriously someone who will actually take the time to super-impose a pic of Schweitzer and Cuomo in their signature.




 note the dates.

From Nate Silver's House Effects Post

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So with the likely-voter adjustment that Nate Silver incorporates into his model, the house-effect of the firm is about 1.5.

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BUT in comparison with other polls, without the likely-voter adjustment, they have about a 3 point GOP lean.

And leave Cuomo and Schweitzer out of this.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Keep in mind that word of worse-than-expected job growth just broke this morning. The bounce could be somewhat short lived.

The UE rate fell to 8.1. That'll probably be the headline.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

At 7:40 AM ET yesterday, even most of the regulars here were not looking at the numbers.  It will take a few hours to get out. 

On Gallup, those numbers won't even be fully internalized until the end of next week. 

At 7:40 AM not even the Romney Campaign was looking at the numbers. They or us would've had to have had some very high connections in the government.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Where those 10 point leads, guys? Bounce may have stalled on Reuters, and Gallup shows ominous signs with the 4 point drop in Obama's net job approval.

There is no 10 point bounce. But there was a large one. Much better than the Governor's.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Gallup also measures economic confidence and it's at it's highest since late May, so why did his approval take such a hit?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

Is Pew putting out a poll this week? I wish there was a schedule for the results of polls being released. It'd be so much easier.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

Scarborough knocked her down so many times. It was truly beautiful.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It's over.

What do you mean?  Obama's chances at the presidency?

Yes.

Oh, I agree!  So, I'm not the only one. 

Dude, Obama's bounce is about to come too, in the form of the unemployment rate drop.
Gallup's polling is only S-F. Two of the days are when Obama got slammed in the 24 HourNews cycle, so that means 2/7 are big Romney samples. Saturday-Wednsday, the samples had been either closing the gap or relatively stable. So the race was tightening anyway.
2/3 of Rasmussen's interviews were conducted after the debate and Romney only leads 49-47. And that's with his crazy methodology of weighting by Party ID and having them represented 37.6 Republican, 33.3 Democrat, and 29.2 Independent. That's a +5 Republican edge. And Obama's approval is steady at 50%.
And dont forget that the rolling average drops days as quickly as it picks them up, so theyll be dropping these pro-Romney samples in the next day or two and probably picking up some ones that are more pre-debate. This race is nowhere near over.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.

I'm not saying a bounce, I'm just saying that the Pro-Romney samples will start dropping out in the next day or two and some that have heard about the jobs report will replace them, which is good news for the President.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.

I'm not saying a bounce, I'm just saying that the Pro-Romney samples will start dropping out in the next day or two and some that have heard about the jobs report will replace them, which is good news for the President.

The jobs report was partly in this sample (about a third).

Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.

Well, if this is the "negated bounce," Obama is in big trouble.

A two point lead isn't trouble. Romney nearly always has a two point lead in Rasmussen.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Reuters/Ipsos Oct. 3-7
Obama:   47 (nc)
Romney: 45 (nc)

I think that this survey is now entirely post-debate. Based on past Reuters/Ipsos releases, they seem to have waited until after the debate to conduct all of their Oct. 3 interviews, but I can't tell for sure because they haven't released the internals yet.

Looks like Mitt's bounce has bounced.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Has this Gallup poll been noticed that has the race closing from a five point Obama lead to dead even?

That's just the three days after the debate, I believe. Romney got a huge bump from that sample but it'll be dropping off any day now.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll
Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.

Mitt must've had some huge leads Thursday and Friday then. Democrats were probably to sad to pick up the phone.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.

What internals?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html

I'm still holding out hope Obama's still up. Romney leading in the RCP average would be a massive psychological loss for Obama supporters everywhere. He hasn't done it in over a year.
Anyway, anyone got the latest RAND Poll results?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

RAND Poll, October 12th

Obama-  48.75% (+.88)
Romney- 45.65% (-.50)

They also published results for the Big 3.
In Ohio
Obama - 39.01% (-.92)
Romney- 58.21% (+.89)

In Florida
Obama - 47.94% (+.IDK)
Romney- 44.71% (-2.96)

In Pennsylvania
Obama- 51.39% (+3.37)
Romney-45.71% (-2.31)

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Um... is that Ohio number right?

Yeah, I was about to say the same thing. Is it supposed to be Obama: 49.01% and Romney: 48.21%? That would make far more sense.

Um... is that Ohio number right?

Weird huh? They actually had Romney ahead during mid-late September when Obama was surging. It is actually 39.01.