A gay Chancellor?

[Middle-aged Europe]

On Sunday, 9/18/2011 Berlin's mayor, Klaus Wowereit, will be reelected in an election which has been attached much value, not only in Germany but also in many European countries.
There's a reason for that: The Social Democrats (SPD) are going to hold primaries for the first time to nominate a chancellor candidate, who will run against Christian Democrat Angela Merkel by September 2013 (presumably even earlier); Wowereit is talked about as a nominee by the left wing, whereas his hardest opponent, former Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück, achieves support from fiscal conservatives.

Last thing I heard is that Sigmar Gabriel was backpaddeling on that one. In any case, the SPD wanted to hold a primary-like election since at least 1994 and it never materialized. I believe it when it happens.

Since Merkel's CDU will definitely lose the next federal election, which is verified by each poll, it may become possible that Germany will be ruled by a homosexual for the first time. (Hey Forbes, I've got an idea for you. )

Any event that is still two years into the future is far from "definite".

Could you imagine a gay Chancellor representing Germany in the US, in Russia, in China or even in Saudi-Arabia? Will the foreign press still take us seriously? Will the future US president receive Wowereit, no matter who has made it to the White House; Obama or Paul wouldn't cause trouble, but won't Perry or even Bachmann either?

Well, Westerwelle made it out of Saudi Arabia alive, so I don't see how it should be a problem. No big deal here.



Voted for option 3 btw. Same as with Westerwelle, basically.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't think it would be a problem. Not to mention one of the first things they'd see done if they + Greens/Left/etc win the 2013 elections is legalizing same-sex marriage in Germany. The CDU/CSU is the main blockers of this right now I think.

Not entirely. The issue is different from the one in America. We have something that could be called "civil unions" for a little over a decade now. Since then, political debate has been about making those civil unions equal/virtually identical to heterosexual marriages in all but name. Which is exactly what started to happen step by step over the years.

However, Germany never had much of a fetish over calling it "marriage". Colloquially it is usually referred to as marriage anyway, even if the letters of the law says otherwise (officially it is called eingetragene Lebenspartnerschaft which of course nobody would use for the sheer length of the term). Debate has been more about substantial things like giving gays the right to adopt children than to change the formal name to "marriage".

Fun fact: Westerwelle originally voted against legalizing civil unions back in 2000. He's now married himself. Then again, he voted against the law prior to his coming out.

[Middle-aged Europe]

With this election result, a potential candidacy of Wowereit for Chancellor is coming closer.

I don't see how this has become more likely now because of this election. His victory was solid, but not exactly spectacular.

Election result: 28.5%
Final poll prior to election: 31.0%

2006 election result: 30.8%
2001 election result: 29.7%

SPIEGEL Online calls his victory "unglamorous".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which were also uncharacteristically camp.

Mabye he was just drunk.

[Middle-aged Europe]

By that logic, Kurt Beck should have become the SPD's nominee in 2009 (or 2013, for that matter).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Moreover, I don't claim that Wowereit will become the SPD's nominee at any rate, I just say that his chances have risen tremendously since his reelection.

This was his worst election result since 2001. He was re-elected as expected, but not as strong as expected. The fact that the Greens also failed to meet expectations doesn't change that.

So I fail to see how this risis his chances "tremendously". His chances are the same as before the election, maybe even a little lower.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A question for Germans: As of right now, what would you say are Wowereit's chances of being the SPD's nominee for Chancellor percentage wise?

Uh, hard to say. 10%? 20% max.? Probably much closer to 10% after his decision to form a coalition with the CDU instead of one with the Greens in Berlin.

Gabriel, Steinmeier, and Steinbrück are the relevant potential candidates at the moment. Wowereit is probably fourth in line, maybe even fifth, if we count Olaf Scholz in.

And are there any polls showing how the SPD would fare if he were it's nominee?

We don't do such polls. There are only "which party would you vote for" and (hypothetical) "which Chancellor would you vote for" polls? I don't know if a Merkel vs. Wowereit poll was ever done though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I know that, but there must be polls on how people's voting intentions would change depending on who a party was led by.

None that I'm aware of.

The closest thing are the "who would you prefer as Chancellor (Merkel vs. X)?" and "who would you prefer as SPD Chancellor-candidate?" polls. Usually, Steinmeier, Steinbrück, and Gabriel are included in these polls. Sometimes also Wowereit, Scholz, and Hannelore Kraft, but those tend to be the SPD Chancellor-candidate polls and not the Chancellor polls.

Polls are usually led by Steinbrück and/or Steinmeier. At best, Wowereit is then tied with Gabriel for 3rd place.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Many see him as a potential candidate for the very fact that he is the only high-ranking "left-winger" in the SPD at the moment.

It's time to do away with that myth.

I bet most people couldn't name three political issues where Wowereit is more left-wing than, let's say, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Wowereit's reputation as a left-winger is mostly based on the fact that he had governed with the PDS/Left for the past ten years, and even preferred such a coalition over SPD/Greens. However, he's governing with the CDU now (and again, preferring it over SPD/Greens), so the reason for his classification as a left-winger has ceased to exist.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's funny though. Kurt Beck, who had started his career in a SPD/FDP coalition, formed a SPD/Green coalition this year rather than a SPD/CDU one.

And Klaus Wowereit, who had started his career with a SPD/PDS coalition, formed a SPD/CDU coalition rather than a SPD/Green one.

"Right-wing" and "left-wing" doesn't mean squat.