No more 3 electoral votes

[Duke David]

... and why?

[minionofmidas]

The first thing to happen will probably be Rhode Island dropping to 3 EVs.

[Duke David]

Montana?

[TJ in Oregon]

Montana?

Montana has the largest population of any of those states now. It's only 63,000 behind Rhode Island, which has 4 electoral votes. Montana is the largest of the 3-vote states by 92,000 people over Delaware. I suppose you could make an argument for Delaware since it's growing slightly faster, but Montana should be the clear favorite.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Montana?

It's the most populous of those states. An increase in the size of the House would give Montana its second Representative before any of the other states listed. Also, it is likely that Montana would be the first to cross the threshold for two Representatives before the other states listed, though Alaska is also a strong possibility.

[Duke David]

Montana truly seems to be the correct answer.

I thought of Alaska due to its size and due to climate change.
This state will definitely get 4 votes some day (and even more), but Montana will be faster in receiving an additional elector.

Maybe I ought to have asked this question in a different way...

[minionofmidas]

Montana lost its fourth EV twenty years ago, and has been growing slightly slower than the national average since. It's still not far off, but extending trendlines into the future (a risky business, as it takes only a few extremely good years to change things here) it will slip ever further away.

[lowtech redneck]

Montana?

Montana has the largest population of any of those states now. It's only 63,000 behind Rhode Island, which has 4 electoral votes. Montana is the largest of the 3-vote states by 92,000 people over Delaware. I suppose you could make an argument for Delaware since it's growing slightly faster, but Montana should be the clear favorite.

I wish I could change my vote (I did not realize Montana was that populous already); Delaware will be a close second, though, its nearby too many metropolitan areas to remain at 3 for too much longer.