How many white Democrats will be in the House from the South after 2012?

[Torie]

I can count only six for sure, two from NOVA, three from Florida (the Dems might get one or two more depending on what happens to the Alan West seat in redistricting, and whether the heavily but not majority black Corrine Brown seat is dumped and made more white putting in a white Dem), and what the courts do with the Pubbie plan), plus Price in NC.  A somewhat probable 7th seat is the Chandler seat in Kentucky where he would be a favorite. Cooper's fate in Tennessee depends on whether the Pubbies chop Nashville, which I suspect is in the cards. So it looks to me to be more likely than not a grand total of seven, plus a possible 8th or 9th from Florida. Oh, and maybe one more white Dem from Virginia, but I consider that reasonably unlikely.

Oh, and the Doggett thing in Texas. That is a wild card. So say 7.5 seats.

Have I missed anyone? How times have changed since I was a lad!

[Torie]

Add maybe 2 in West Virginia, 2 in Arkansas, maybe a couple in Texas.

I don't count WV as the South, but OK, but I don't see the Pubbies losing a seat there this time, so add one for WV if you like.  I don't think the Dems will hold the Ark-04 given that Ross is retiring and it's uber GOP now. I don't think Griffin will be defeated in Ark 02, even though the seat is now a couple of points more Dem than it was. Not with Obama at the top of the ticket.

[Torie]

Indeed I did miss Louisville!  Thanks.

And yes Cohen, but he represents a very black CD, so he's a black Jew.     But yes indeed.

[Torie]

Indeed I did miss Louisville!  Thanks.

But if you don't include Southern WV, then you shouldn't include Louisville.

That is more or less true. It's arbitrary.  Let's add Missouri too.  But's let's not add Maryland.

KY, WV, and to a lesser extent Missouri, are hybrid states. There is not much of the South left in Maryland except the Eastern shore.

[Torie]

Yes, but generally we don't consider Detroit part of the South.  It's is kind of a white thing really come to think of it. They seem to define the reach of the South's diaspora. Anyway, the redneck riviera  has almost no blacks, and it is Southern in very good standing. So there!