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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #50 on: January 19, 2012, 11:16:04 pm »

Would it be possible to do a map on the differential between the SOS race (Husted) and the gubernatorial race (Kasich)?  I am curious why Husted did so much better than the other Republicans in 2010.

I can make a map, but Husted wasn't even the Republican who won by the largest statewide margin, State Treasurer Josh Mandel was. My guess as to why Attorney General and Governor were closer than the other two races is that they included higher profile and more controversial candidates. Strickland was a so-so governor and Kasich wasn't terribly popular even at the time of the election. DeWine was a former US Senator who made a few enemies, or at least more than Mandel or Husted, who both won comfortably as "Generic Republican" in a wave year.
The reason I ask, is that the redistricting contest used the Governor, Secretary of State, and Auditor race from the 2010 election and the 2008 presidential race as their measure of partisanship.  Because 3 races were included were from 2010, about 2/3 of the vote was from 2010 (turnout in 2010 was about 2/3 of 2008).  This in itself introduces a bias.

Since the purpose was to produce "competitive" congressional races, the underlying model (at least in part) was assuming voters in a congressional district would be as likely to vote for generic Republican as they did Husted.   The only thing that I found was that Husted's opponent had been portrayed as a gun grabber because when she was a member of the Columbus city council she had favored letting Columbus have its own regulations on carrying guns, such that someone who was legal in their part of the state would commit a felony by driving into Columbus.

So I was wondering if there was some sort of rural bias towards Husted, particularly in the fairly balanced areas in SE Ohio.



I could compare Husted, but the 2010 Governor's race will definitely not give you a fair view of SE Ohio's voting patterns since Strickland is from SE Ohio and pretty popular there. Maybe I should try the State Treasurer Race since that should also be fairly non-descript.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #51 on: January 19, 2012, 11:20:59 pm »

Here's the 2008 Presidential Election broken down by county and CD:

Edit: I seemed to have made Preble County the wrong color in the original version for some reason.

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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #52 on: January 22, 2012, 09:50:16 pm »

Husted in is teal in both maps.

Here'’s Husted-Kasich. Husted did better in every single county. The county where Kasich was the closest to Husted was Cuyahoga. You can see the margins are especially large in the northwest and in Strickland’s old district, in particular the parts he represented before the 2001 redistricting. Kasich holds up much better in urban areas than rural ones.


And here’s Husted-Mandel. Husted does better in the northwest and Mandel does better in the northeast.  Mandel is from Cuyahoga County, so it makes sense that he would do better there. Husted was born in Detroit and leaves near Dayton, so I’m not sure why he does better in the northwest, but he does. He even manages 73% in Williams County, about 20% better than McCain.

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« Reply #53 on: January 23, 2012, 01:14:24 pm »

Husted in is teal in both maps.

Here'’s Husted-Kasich. Husted did better in every single county. The county where Kasich was the closest to Husted was Cuyahoga. You can see the margins are especially large in the northwest and in Strickland’s old district, in particular the parts he represented before the 2001 redistricting. Kasich holds up much better in urban areas than rural ones.



I suppose there is a possibility of RTKABA vote giving Husted a few extra percentage.  Or it is possible that voters in rural areas are more discerning of individual candidates since they don't have to sort through dozens of congressional and legislative and local races.  If you don't have the money to spend on TV advertising like gubernatorial candidates, you may be willing to make yourself available to every newspaper and radio station in the state.

And even the urban areas are problematic for the contest rules.  If you use the SOS race rather than the AG race, you've added in a percentage or two boost to the 3-race average for 2010 even in the urban areas, which are particularly the areas that you don't want to overestimate the support of "generic Republican" when the contest rules are trying to make the race competitive.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #54 on: January 23, 2012, 03:37:52 pm »


I suppose there is a possibility of RTKABA vote giving Husted a few extra percentage.  Or it is possible that voters in rural areas are more discerning of individual candidates since they don't have to sort through dozens of congressional and legislative and local races.  If you don't have the money to spend on TV advertising like gubernatorial candidates, you may be willing to make yourself available to every newspaper and radio station in the state.

And even the urban areas are problematic for the contest rules.  If you use the SOS race rather than the AG race, you've added in a percentage or two boost to the 3-race average for 2010 even in the urban areas, which are particularly the areas that you don't want to overestimate the support of "generic Republican" when the contest rules are trying to make the race competitive.


My guess is that it has more to do with news because it seems to follow the lines between media markets more than a simple urban/rural divide. I'll try to see if I can find some statistics on gun ownership and concealed carry permits to really check this well. It seems like there is too much variation between Huron and Erie Counties and Ottawa, Sandusky, and Seneca Counties for at least a substantial piece of it to be media-driven. Holmes, Wayne, and Ashland also seem strange for an urban/rural split. Husted did much, much better in the Toledo area than you would otherwise expect if the split was just rural/urban. The northeast also doesn't surprise me very much because the Cleveland Plain Dealer gave Kasich a ringing endorsement and I don't think they endorsed Husted (or at least I don't remember them doing it). The southeast is skewed by Strickland, so I wouldn't consider that part of the state a useful comparison.

I think the rural/urban split may have more to do with Kasich than Husted. Kasich is unusually fiscally conservative for a state-wide Ohio politician and I think the type of voters who tend to be "moderate" in urban areas are generally more inclined to vote for fiscal conservatives whereas rural voters tend to me more socially conservative.

One other note: I only considered the two-party vote when I calculated the margins.
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« Reply #55 on: January 23, 2012, 05:50:28 pm »

One other note: I only considered the two-party vote when I calculated the margins.

That matches the contest's methodology.   They went even further and simply totaled up votes.  If there was a significant 3rd party or independent vote in a particular race, it would at minimum reduce the weight of that race - but worse would likely skew the results of a race, since the other candidate would likely take more votes from one candidate than the other.
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« Reply #56 on: March 15, 2012, 07:56:15 pm »

Here's a map I did not draw (or have the means of drawing) but found prepared by the City of Cleveland. It shows the condition of different blocks throughout the city taking into account the conditions of the properties in the area (ie. blighted, abandoned, foreclosed, etc).

Notice how much worse the east side is compared to the west side within the city! I'd also like to add that their idea of "regional choice" neighborhoods means "middle class" to most people.

In case anyone is wondering the black lines labeled "SPA" are the city's official neighborhood bounderies.

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« Reply #57 on: July 12, 2012, 12:28:32 am »

Population per Concealed Carry Permit Issued in 2011:


There is some pattern here between rural and suburban vs. urban and regional differences, such as much of the agricultural northwest/west-central area having few CCWs. However, this stat does not seem to match up well along ideological lines. Cuyahoga County having the fewest CCWs per capita is somewhat unsurprising but second is Coshocton (?). The third fewest is Mahoning, which isn't hugely surprising given it is pretty urban, but then fourth is Putnam, another unexpected result.
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« Reply #58 on: July 12, 2012, 01:37:21 am »

Teen Pregnancies per 1000 Females Ages 10-19 (2010):



This map shows higher rates in counties dominated by urban cores, but does not seem to discriminate by the size of the urban core; smaller industrial towns seem to have similar rates as larger cities like Cleveland. The lowest rates are in Deleware County (12.1), Geauga (12.2) and Holmes (14.Cool while Clark has the highest (38.7).
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« Reply #59 on: July 21, 2012, 11:37:50 am »

This wouldn't be a demographics map and I don't if you are taking requests, but I'd be very interested in seeing a precinct map of Cleveland showing the decrease in turnout in the 2010 gubernatorial election compared to the 2008 presidential election.
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« Reply #60 on: July 21, 2012, 12:36:45 pm »

This wouldn't be a demographics map and I don't if you are taking requests, but I'd be very interested in seeing a precinct map of Cleveland showing the decrease in turnout in the 2010 gubernatorial election compared to the 2008 presidential election.

I can try, but it will be hard to get more exact than on the municipality level because they redrew the precinct lines in most of Cuyahoga County between 2008 and 2010.
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« Reply #61 on: July 22, 2012, 01:40:20 am »

Here's a Cuyahoga County map of 2010 turnout as a percentage of 2008 turnout by municipality, except for the City of Cleveland which is broken down into area that are some combination of 2008 wards, 2010 wards, and the neighborhood stistical areas. This is about the best I can do with changing precinct and ward boundaries in most of the municipalities in the county:



Clearly there is a huge difference between urban and suburban areas. The area with the most consistent turnout is tiny Cuyahoga Heights which had 94% of its '08 turnout in '10 (and Kasich managed to increase upon McCain's victory margin from 2 votes to 3). For the most part the wealthier areas tended to retain voters better. The notable exception here being the high turnout in Parma, a poorer Polish and Ukrainian ethnic western suburb.

Within Cleveland itself, the poorer areas generally voted less, as well as the racially diverse neighborhoods. The diverse (45% white, 35% Hispanic, 20% black) Clark-Fulton neighborhood saw the largest fall-off in turnout. There is no obvious correllation between race and relative turnout. In fact the neighborhood with the largest relative turnout within the city itself was the far southeastern (97% black) Lee-Miles neighborhood and the second largest was the far west side's (83% white) West Park/Kamm's Corners neighborhood.

Kasich also managed to win a precinct (19-Q) in the West Park neighborhood, something John McCain failed to do.
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« Reply #62 on: July 22, 2012, 10:42:25 am »

Could some of the falloff in turnout in Cleveland be due to an ongoing drain of population, or increase in the Hispanic percentage?  Nice map by the way.
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« Reply #63 on: July 22, 2012, 12:04:45 pm »

Could some of the falloff in turnout in Cleveland be due to an ongoing drain of population, or increase in the Hispanic percentage?  Nice map by the way.

The Hispanic growth most likely played a role in the Clark-Fulton neighborhood since it (and perhaps some of the immediately surrounding neighborhoods) are the only parts of Cuyahoga County with a non-negligible Hispanic population. I would guess that is probably the reason Clark-Fulton was in the high 30s instead of mid 40s like similar neighborhoods in terms of economic class.

There is obviously some component of this from people moving, but it alone doesn't completely explain the turnout dropoff in Cleveland compared to the suburbs. Here is a map of population change from 2000-2010 as a reference. I would like to point out that despite being one of fastest growing parts of the county, Downtown also experienced a large decline in turnout. Part of that is probably because Downtown's growth is largely young urban professionals who don't bother voting in non-presidential elections. Also it is widely believed that most of Cleveland's population loss occured in the first half of the last decade and has slowed since the economy crashed. Still many of the east side neighborhoods with huge turnout changes are in a state of total freefall no matter what the city's total population does, so it's probably an important contributing factor.
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« Reply #64 on: July 22, 2012, 12:19:51 pm »

Here's a Cuyahoga County map of 2010 turnout as a percentage of 2008 turnout by municipality, except for the City of Cleveland which is broken down into area that are some combination of 2008 wards, 2010 wards, and the neighborhood stistical areas. This is about the best I can do with changing precinct and ward boundaries in most of the municipalities in the county:



Clearly there is a huge difference between urban and suburban areas. The area with the most consistent turnout is tiny Cuyahoga Heights which had 94% of its '08 turnout in '10 (and Kasich managed to increase upon McCain's victory margin from 2 votes to 3). For the most part the wealthier areas tended to retain voters better. The notable exception here being the high turnout in Parma, a poorer Polish and Ukrainian ethnic western suburb.

Within Cleveland itself, the poorer areas generally voted less, as well as the racially diverse neighborhoods. The diverse (45% white, 35% Hispanic, 20% black) Clark-Fulton neighborhood saw the largest fall-off in turnout. There is no obvious correllation between race and relative turnout. In fact the neighborhood with the largest relative turnout within the city itself was the far southeastern (97% black) Lee-Miles neighborhood and the second largest was the far west side's (83% white) West Park/Kamm's Corners neighborhood.

Kasich also managed to win a precinct (19-Q) in the West Park neighborhood, something John McCain failed to do.

Thanks, awesome map!
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« Reply #65 on: July 22, 2012, 01:49:27 pm »

TJ, could you do more gay marriage maps, say by precinct or state house or senate district?
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« Reply #66 on: July 23, 2012, 02:08:34 pm »

While I have the data and map at hand, here's the 2010 gubernatorial race 2-party vote broken down by the same areas as before:



And here's the margin in each scaled by dot size:



Kasich did fairly well for a Republican in Cuyahoga County and probably even won the white vote. Most of Strickland's victory margin came from the heavily black neighborhoods on the east side. The other notable result is that Strickland racked up much larger margins the safer black neighborhoods than in crime ridden ones. I intentionally grouped Cleveland's two worse neighborhoods together (Kinsman and Central) and it contrasts nicely with Lee-Miles, one of the nicer neighborhoods in the city and also 97% black. Strickland carried both with similar percentages but had a 7150 vote margin in Lee-Miles and only 2674 in Central and Kinsman despite both groups having roughly the same population.
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« Reply #67 on: July 26, 2012, 11:52:49 pm »

TJ, could you do more gay marriage maps, say by precinct or state house or senate district?

I have Lucas County:


To compare with race:


The Toledo metro area was fairly boring with the gay marriage ban passing pretty easily. The only pockets against it were around Downtown, the artsy gentrified section of the Old West End (the two darker red precincts), the University of Toledo, and the wealthy inner suburb of Ottawa Hills.

I also have Erie County done but that's even more boring. Is there anywhere in particular you're interested in? (This is easier to do precinct maps for because there weren't many changes between '04 and '08).
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« Reply #68 on: November 09, 2012, 11:45:03 pm »

Here's the swing in presidential vote between 2008 and 2012.



Obama improved in central, south-central Ohio (the latter he did so horrendously in the first time that it would be difficult not to improve in), and the urban cores of Cleveland and the Mahoning Valley, while Romney outperformed McCain most notably in the West-Central part of the state and the eastern part of the Ohio Valley counties.

Unlike the central and western parts of the Ohio River Valley in Ohio, Democratic support for Obama hadn't collapsed to quite the same extent in 2008 in the eastern section. Romney's most improved county was Monroe, a tiny river county than Obama won by a decent margin in 2008 but lacks any defining features as to why it would remain Democratic (ie. not near Athens) while the surrounding counties become Republican.

Romney also improved upon McCain's numbers in the west-central German Catholic section of the state. Like in 2008, Mercer County was Obama's worst and this time he only managed 22% of the vote, getting fewer votes while the total cast increased.

Obama's most improved county by percentage was Licking, despite him actually losing it by a larger vote margin in 2012 than in 2008. The total number of votes increased significantly due to more suburban growth from the Columbus area.

Obama's best county was again Cuyahoga, where he outpeformed his 2008 percentage slightly but lost some of the vote margin as the total cast was about 32,000 fewer.
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« Reply #69 on: November 10, 2012, 01:30:48 pm »

Epic thread. Thanks!
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« Reply #70 on: November 10, 2012, 02:47:50 pm »

Again, any particular explanations for the pro-Obama swing around Columbus and directly south of that, extending into Pike etc counties? Columbus metro growth might be one, but does it explain stuff like Pike or Scioto Counties?
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« Reply #71 on: November 10, 2012, 11:53:07 pm »

Again, any particular explanations for the pro-Obama swing around Columbus and directly south of that, extending into Pike etc counties? Columbus metro growth might be one, but does it explain stuff like Pike or Scioto Counties?

I'm not sure why Ross, Scioto, and Pike Counties swung toward Obama when the rest of the state did not. My guess is those counties having already swung heavily toward the GOP in 2008 from the previously normal levels and not having swung much toward the GOP otherwise (unlike the counties to the east of them that have been more Republican on other races as well). All three of them are among the poorer counties in the state and Pike has the second highest unemployment rate as of about a year ago. Pike and Scioto had fewer total votes cast for both candidates than in 2008, so there may have been a lack of Republican energy for Romney. Ross had about 200 more Obama votes than in 2008 but 1500 fewer Republican votes. Ted Strickland is from Scioto County so perhaps he's had some effect.

Perhaps somewhere in that jumble of reasons lies the answer.
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« Reply #72 on: January 08, 2013, 01:03:49 am »

Here's the 2012 map for US House by county:


In some places there was a pretty big disparity from the presidential numbers, for instance Wood, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Sandusky Counties were carried by the Republican candidates. Montgomery isn't all that surprising considering the popularity of Mike Turner (he was very close to hitting 60% even). The candidate effect is quite dramatic in places, like Tuscarawas County where half of it is in the contested OH-6 rematch between Charlie Wilson and Bill Johnson and the other half is in Bob Gibb's seat with a terrible Democratic opponent.

The Northeast corner of the state is much less solid for Joyce than it was for LaTourette. Joyce still won heavily Republican Geauga County by a large margin but the rest of the district was close whereas LaTourette often did about as well in Lake County as Geauga. OH-14 does have a more Republican-friendly slice of Cuyahoga County than it had before redistricting, so Joyce actually had a better total there than LaTourette normally had. However, this race had a poor Democratic candidate and far more third party and write-in votes than any other district.

Renacci had the closest race of any of the incumbents to be re-elected and it was actually the portion of Stark County that saved him as his district was given the most Republican parts of the county in the northern suburbs of Canton while Bob Gibbs had the more Democratic portion of the county.
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« Reply #73 on: January 08, 2013, 02:40:26 pm »

Nice map! 

Actually, Renacci did not need Stark to pull it out. Wayne was enough to do that.  Renacci also ran pretty well in Sutton's home turf of Summit.

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« Reply #74 on: January 12, 2013, 01:34:36 am »

2008 Presidential Vote in Cuyahoga County broken down by the same districts as the 2010 Gubernatorial map:


The Democrats strength in Cuyahoga County is basically three types of areas: blacks (see the pacman shaped area of 95% precincts), blue-collar whites (the red west of black areas), and white liberals (the red east of the black areas).
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