Ohio Demographic Maps (user search)
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Linus Van Pelt
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« on: November 01, 2011, 07:32:17 PM »

The collection of counties with significant Amish populations (Holmes, Wayne, Ashland, Coshocton, Tuscarawas, and Geauga) also trended toward the Democrats though not that strongly. Perhaps McCain’s candidacy caused some enthusiasm problems compared with George W. Bush?

Remember that the Amish, though otherwise socially ultra-conservative (like, off the charts), are pacifists. This certainly isn't enough to get the Old Order Amish to vote Democrat (indeed, many don't vote at all), but there is a certain constituency of people who are more integrated into modern life but have an Anabaptist cultural background who are basically conservative but would sympathize with the D's on Iraq. Notice also that Lancaster PA and Elkhart IN have a very large Obama swing.
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Linus Van Pelt
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,144


« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2011, 08:04:22 PM »

The collection of counties with significant Amish populations (Holmes, Wayne, Ashland, Coshocton, Tuscarawas, and Geauga) also trended toward the Democrats though not that strongly. Perhaps McCain’s candidacy caused some enthusiasm problems compared with George W. Bush?

Remember that the Amish, though otherwise socially ultra-conservative (like, off the charts), are pacifists. This certainly isn't enough to get the Old Order Amish to vote Democrat (indeed, many don't vote at all), but there is a certain constituency of people who are more integrated into modern life but have an Anabaptist cultural background who are basically conservative but would sympathize with the D's on Iraq. Notice also that Lancaster PA and Elkhart IN have a very large Obama swing.

That doesn't explain why they voted so strongly for George W. Bush in 2004. If anything I would guess that a conservative pacifist would have voted for Kerry and McCain rather than the other way around.

But Kerry was for the Iraq war, unlike Obama. The people I'm thinking of are not interested in the nuances of "bringing in our allies".

I'll fully admit that I'm pretty tentative about this explanation in the case of the Ohio counties - I'm more confident about Lancaster and Elkhart, since the swing is much larger there (as well as large Obama primary victories, which again you don't see in Ohio), and they have more liberal Mennonites living there, of a sort I have some personal experience with. I don't have such a handle on the Ohio communities, which seem to be more just strict old order Amish and then people who aren't Anabaptist at all. So it's possible that the trend is caused by something completely different here. But it is a real phenomenon in the Amish/Mennonite community nationwide.

Great thread, by the way. Very interesting.
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