Kerry still would have one New Hampshire and Iowa... probably Illinois too.
I think Dean would have carried IL. Daley had not backed any one candidate and many local township organizations were heavily behind Dean. I reacjed a point in the summer and fall of 2003 that generic Democrat floats in parades only featured Dean.
The only other significant support I saw in late 2003 in IL was for Clark. For those who were uncomfortable with Dean, he was the consensus alternative among Dems here. Given the connections between Daley and many from Clinton's old organization, I would not have been surprised to see a Daley endorsement of Clark. The surprising thing for me was that Clark did not contest IA in the Midwest where a veteran's message plays well (see Kerry).
