Predict Q3 fundraising numbers

[Wonkish1]

Do you count the DNC Obama sub account or not? Clearly Obama's numbers are amazing when you count those numbers too.

Without an answer on whether the sub account is included then the guesses are meaningless.

[Wonkish1]

Alright,

Obama      $48mil               -----Obama's combined total including his joint account with the DNC

Perry          $18mil
Romney      $16mi
Paul            $8mil
Bachmann  $6mil
Hunstman  $5mil
Gingrich      $4mil
Cain           $3.5mil
Santorum   $1.5
Johnson     $.5mil

[Wonkish1]

Yeah but then the donor can't contribute to DNC's general account.

Also it isn't surprising that Obama would way out raise the GOP candidates when his maximum limit under the joint account is 8 times larger than the limit that can be donated to GOP candidates.

[Wonkish1]

Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something.

Oh and I think I'll revise:
Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above
Add 1.5 to Cain
and
1 million to Newt

[Wonkish1]

Obama $60 mill ($48 mill OFA, $12 mill DNC). The Obama campaign never puts a number out in the press that they are not sure they will hit so I expect them to to be well over $55 mill. The campaign expects to go over 1 Million individual donors sometime next month so despite what
you read in the press the small donors are still there for Obama (for the record  I am an Obama supporter and donate monthly to his campaign).

Romney $19 mill. - As it becomes more apparent Willard is the GOP frontrunner the establishment money will go to him.

Perry $18 mill. - Late start puts him behind Romney. The big question is how much the Super Pacs that support him raise.

They rest. Does not matter.

You've got your OFA and DNC spiel wrong. OFA is the DNC account. Its the name of the DNC account that segregates Obama money from the rest of the DNC. It is also the account that is going to have a lot more than Obama's regular account since the DNC can collect higher contribution numbers.

And many professional Dems at the DNC aren't happy about OFA merging with the DNC for this election and running around treating the DNC staff like crap.

[Wonkish1]

Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something.

Oh and I think I'll revise:
Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above
Add 1.5 to Cain
and
1 million to Newt

I thought that Huntsman's campaign was "running on fumes" and falling into debt. (I'm not implying that these circumstances are incompatible with him raising more than one million, but I haven't heard anything positive about his fundraising this quarter. And since he's apparently given only $500,000 of his own money to his campaign, I can't imagine where another 3.5 would come from.)

EDIT: Oh, crap. Are these cumulative? First cycle in which I've been following the fundraising numbers closely.

Huntsman's is cumulative by default, date of entry. That is supposedly why he's at $4 million. Keep in mind that if the same was true for candidate even like Cain or Gingrich they would likely be around $5-8 cumulatively. Some article I read said that Huntsman entered in some grace period or something before the end of Q2 and was able to delay reporting. So he's sitting on something like a whole Q plus maybe 2-4 more weeks.

[Wonkish1]

Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet!

[Wonkish1]

Looks like Romney closed at only $13 million. His most disappointing Q of this year and in 08.

[Wonkish1]

I may have done well so far, but I know I'm about to get beat down big time on Newt's numbers. They're going to be much closer to like 2-3 mil. Maybe 4.

Also the vague words I'm hearing out of the Bachmann camp show that she actually might be closer to 3-4 instead of 6 mil.

[Wonkish1]

So how are we going to do this?

A:Add up the missed millions into a total and divide by the number of candidates the person predicted on.

Or

B: Calculate the percentage off each person had for each candidate and then average out those percentages.

Or

C: Some combination of the 2.
I'm thinking multiply A and B together??