FL: Quinnipiac University: Obama leads Perry by 2, trails Romney by 7

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2011-09-20

Summary: D: 44%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

...

44-42 Obama vs. Perry
40-47 Obama vs. Romney

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

39% Approve
57% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Romney

[cavalcade]

A few notes:

1) Obama loses indies to Romney, wins them against Perry (kind of obvious I guess)
2) Dems and indies are more undecided
3) Both Perry and Romney have been gaining in the last six weeks

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is another outlier.

[RI]

Why did Naso enter this poll twice?

[Tender Branson]

Why did Naso enter this poll twice?

Deleted.

[Reaganfan]

Why was it entered as Obama +2 instead of Romney +7?

[Tender Branson]

Why was it entered as Obama +2 instead of Romney +7?

Because Perry leads the primary in this poll and Perry trails Obama by 2.

[Reaganfan]

Why was it entered as Obama +2 instead of Romney +7?

Because Perry leads the primary in this poll and Perry trails Obama by 2.

Ah I see.

[Tender Branson]

Why was it entered as Obama +2 instead of Romney +7?

Because Perry leads the primary in this poll and Perry trails Obama by 2.

Ah I see.

Yeah, I think it's the best we can do right now: look at the primary polling in each state and use the leader for the general election matchup.

Once there is a Republican nominee, we can modify the old polls and put in the values of the real nominee.

[Gustaf]

Why was it entered as Obama +2 instead of Romney +7?

Because Perry leads the primary in this poll and Perry trails Obama by 2.

Ah I see.

Yeah, I think it's the best we can do right now: look at the primary polling in each state and use the leader for the general election matchup.

Once there is a Republican nominee, we can modify the old polls and put in the values of the real nominee.

Why? It makes a lot more sense to consistently use one candidate, preferably the one we think will be the nominee or who does the best. Right now I think it makes sense to use Romney, since Perry would be destroyed anyway.

Having a map with Romney v Obama numbers in some states and Perry v Obama in some makes no sense to me. Such a map would tell us nothing, while one with one of the candidates would tell us something.

[Simfan34]

Why was it entered as Obama +2 instead of Romney +7?

Because Perry leads the primary in this poll and Perry trails Obama by 2.

Ah I see.

Yeah, I think it's the best we can do right now: look at the primary polling in each state and use the leader for the general election matchup.

Once there is a Republican nominee, we can modify the old polls and put in the values of the real nominee.

Why? It makes a lot more sense to consistently use one candidate, preferably the one we think will be the nominee or who does the best. Right now I think it makes sense to use Romney, since Perry would be destroyed anyway.

Having a map with Romney v Obama numbers in some states and Perry v Obama in some makes no sense to me. Such a map would tell us nothing, while one with one of the candidates would tell us something.

I think it would be silly of us to try to hastily pass judgement on the race and put Romney as the presumptive nominee because we "think" he'll be the nominee. Perry is the front runner, and thus should be used in match ups. Or perhaps both.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Instead of debating the margin which should be used why not simply average together the agreed upon front runners numbers?

Perry -2 (Obama +2)
Romney +7 (Obama -7)
R +2.5

[pbrower2a]

Instead of debating the margin which should be used why not simply average together the agreed upon front runners numbers?

Perry -2 (Obama +2)
Romney +7 (Obama -7)
R +2.5

I have a series of posts (a different thread) in which the separate margins are shown. America is not going to get a composite of Romney and Perry as the Republican nominee; it is most likely to get one or the other.  Even if America  ends up with some compromise from the smoke-filled chamber (OK, there is no such place, but it is an old metaphor) one can't expect a nominee in the middle.  So far both maps suggest that the 45th President of the United States will either be Andrew Cuomo (Democrat) or Bob McDonnell (Republican). Romney in essence pares most of the gaudy margins by which President Obama won in 2008 while flipping fewer than enough states necessary for a win. He almost picks off Michigan, showing some effect of a Favorite Son.  But even there it is "almost".

This one is far more legible than some of my other maps, and I hope that it stays that way. Here's the latest post that I have there:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140886.msg3030271#msg3030271