2013 Senate Control
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billbillerson
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« on: September 23, 2011, 12:23:06 PM »

I'm looking at the races and for me it comes down to 8 states that will decide control. Florida, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Nebraska and Virginia.

I think the R's have the advantage in North Dakota and Nebraska. D's in Massachusetts.

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Guderian
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2011, 12:26:19 PM »

Wisconsin is more important than Florida.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2011, 12:33:13 PM »

Where is Nevada?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2011, 01:39:42 PM »

ND, NE are sure GOP pickups, MA and NV lean R for now. MO/MT/VA/WI are the keys to victory, and WI is the most likely pickup of those if Thompson is nominated. Mandel could make it close but not a victory, ditto for Heather Wilson. McCaskill and Bill Nelson are helped by mediocre opponents, VA and MT will be tossups till the votes are counted.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2011, 03:39:13 PM »

There is now a distinct possibility that it will be another wave election, in which event a host of Dem Senators would be very vulnerable, and subject to all going down together. In other words, the result outcomes between individual races have a fairly high level of correlation. So it might be just about as likely that the Dems will lose 3 seats, as it is that they will lose say 8 seats. Dem losses hitting double digits are not out of the question. The thing is, these individual races are very nationalized now.  Heck, that runs down to the state legislative level these days. Folks are voting straight party tickets.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2011, 09:03:50 PM »

In a dream world for me, republicans get 400 electoral votes. Also republicans win all of these senate races including Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Michigan, Ohio, and Washington. That would be a truly great night for republicans.

Yeah, definitely dreaming.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2011, 07:14:56 PM »

If a second Republican wave develops in 2012, the absolute blow-out best I can see the GOP doing is winning 389 EV, which would lead to winning 58 Senate seats, and picking up another 25 house seats.
Now that would be change I could believe in!
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2011, 07:53:09 PM »

If a second Republican wave develops in 2012, the absolute blow-out best I can see the GOP doing is winning 389 EV, which would lead to winning 58 Senate seats, and picking up another 25 house seats.
Now that would be change I could believe in!

There simply are not 25 more House seats Republicans could win.  The best they could do is maybe 10 seats. 

I can see them gaining GA-12, NC-07, NC-08, NC-11, NC-13, GA-12.  However they are almost certain to lose IL-08, IL-11, and IL-17 no matter what happens and Democrats would likely pick up a few in California.  That puts everything about even.  They would then have to pick up NY-01, KY-06, and UT-02.  That puts them up only three seats.  I cant really see any more seats that they could pick up. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2011, 03:04:48 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2011, 03:07:44 PM by krazen1211 »

That rascal Matheson is a dead man walking. The GOP just went with the brutal map.

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-sumsion_06-modified-a
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2011, 09:25:10 PM »

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I suspect there are, and if the election were held today, with new maps, the Pubbies would pick up the bulk of them, maybe in the high teens. It depends in part on whether New York gets a non partisan map, which would put a bunch of Dem CD's in play, which today I think they might well lose. Right now the environment for the Dems is just terrible. Who knows what it will be in 13 months, of course.
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2011, 10:29:30 PM »

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I suspect there are, and if the election were held today, with new maps, the Pubbies would pick up the bulk of them, maybe in the high teens. It depends in part on whether New York gets a non partisan map, which would put a bunch of Dem CD's in play, which today I think they might well lose. Right now the environment for the Dems is just terrible. Who knows what it will be in 13 months, of course.

whoah whoah, NYS's Congressional map is not a Republican gerrymander (unlike the State Senate map which is an extreme gerrymander), it's a bipartisan compromise gerrymander.

A nonpartisan map would lead to huge upheavals in the State Senate power structure, but with much more minor ones to the Congressional map.

(Thanks to the smaller size of districts, it's harder to predict the State Assembly, which would still be Democratic, but might force harder primaries on incumbents depending on the lines)
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2011, 05:13:45 PM »

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I suspect there are, and if the election were held today, with new maps, the Pubbies would pick up the bulk of them, maybe in the high teens. It depends in part on whether New York gets a non partisan map, which would put a bunch of Dem CD's in play, which today I think they might well lose. Right now the environment for the Dems is just terrible. Who knows what it will be in 13 months, of course.

Lets count the seats.  Republicans would pick up NC-07, NC-08, NC-11, NC-13, IN-02, UT-02, AR-04, OK-02, and GA-12.  Democrats would pick up IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-17 and probably three in California.  That's a net of just two seats for Republicans. 
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2011, 09:17:26 PM »

Utah, Tennessee, Arizona, Texas, and Nevada will be deciding control, too.  They surprisingly have the capability of being very competitive.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2011, 11:35:54 PM »

I should not be making predictions as it is too early in the cycle for that.  Nevertheless ...

First, ND is an auto-loss for the Democrats.  I do not agree that NE is also gone, but Ben Nelson certainly has his work cut out for him and is probably more likely to lose than not.

Five of the seats the GOP is targeting are in the true tossup category at this point:  Montana, New Mexico, Missouri, Wisconsin and Virginia.   

The Democrats have two potential pickups in the tossup category -- Massachusetts and Nevada. 

At this point, it appears the game will be won or lost in those seven races.
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