socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,040
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« on: October 03, 2011, 04:21:11 AM » |
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Overall, gop performancein the district may have iimproved marginally...however there is a large latino population plus gays plus some coachella valley liberals, so the district remains competitive. Super conservative Murrieta was removed, as was the large moderately dem city Moreno Valley...
Some things to consider:
1. Dems have a solid well-connected candidate in dr. Raul ruiz. Assemblyman manuel perez may also join the race, but I hope he stays out.
2. Obama will win the new district. If its a national blowout there may be coattails...even if its close, there may belocalized ca coattails a la 2000 in ca...
3. Bono mack may be primaried and is at the very least vulnerable to a 3rd party spoiler. Her moderate profile makes her a good target for teapartiers...meanwhile with the gaying and latinoizing of her district, not sure any R can survive there long.
I think its for sure going to be no more than a 10 point race and def a possible upseet.
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