Clinton vs. McCain → additional blue states (user search)
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  Clinton vs. McCain → additional blue states (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Which states would have gone Democratic if Hillary had run in 2008?
#1
Alabama
#2
Alaska
#3
Arizona
#4
Arkansas
#5
Georgia
#6
Idaho
#7
Kansas
#8
Kentucky
#9
Louisiana
#10
Mississippi
#11
Missouri
#12
Montana
#13
Nebraska
#14
North Dakota
#15
Oklahoma
#16
South Carolina
#17
South Dakota
#18
Tennessee
#19
Texas
#20
Utah
#21
West Virginia
#22
Wyoming
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Clinton vs. McCain → additional blue states  (Read 7874 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: September 26, 2011, 11:38:39 PM »

The only 2008 'red' state that I would give to Hillary would have been MO, she would have lost NC, IN and maybe CO.

I'm actually relatively confident she might have held NV, if Obama could win by 13, she could have scraped in, VA... maybe.

She could have made WV, AR, KY and TN competitive and maybe given McCain a fright in Texas. But I doubt she wins any of them. But equally doubt she would have matched Obama in the margins, especially across the midwest and the coasts.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2011, 07:44:51 AM »


Let me remind you of the fact that all primaries in Appalachia were open.
That means every citizen was allowed to take part in the election process.
Furthermore, she performed there so outstandingly that the primaries acted as a prognostic of the general elections.

Sorry but that's not at all a strong indicator. If you take Arkansas out with a 'favourite son' element and Tennessee which actually now has a GOP registration advantage (and gave Clinton a proportionally modest 13 point win)... most of the Appalachian primaries were held after the GOP had decided on a nominee.

One of Clinton's problems was that many of those who voted for her in the primary may not have voted for her in a General election against McCain.

The dynamics are not in any way comparable for you to be able to make a claim like that.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2011, 09:34:58 PM »


Hillary would definitely have won Indiana. Remember she had emerged victorious in the open IN primary, and nevertheless Obama got the electoral votes from there.
Thus, Obama's result means Hillary would have been all the more successful in the Hoosier state.
And btw, Oklahoma would have gone much more Democratic than under Obama.

I'm sorry, but an open primary allowed GOPers to vote... and others who didn't like Obama, especially since the GOP nomination was settled.

The dynamics are different and they're not a facsimile of GE.
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