CNN: Perry leads by 8
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  CNN: Perry leads by 8
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Author Topic: CNN: Perry leads by 8  (Read 1348 times)
Bull Moose Base
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« on: September 26, 2011, 01:08:27 PM »

First national poll taken after Thursday's debate?

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(Also shows Obama leading all Republicans head-to-head.)

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/09/26/rel16a-1a.pdf
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2011, 01:20:45 PM »

Wow, Gingrich and Cain ahead of Paul!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2011, 01:23:46 PM »

Reports of Perry's demise are greatly exaggerated, apparently.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2011, 01:31:30 PM »

Reports of Perry's demise are greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Well, PPP will release a new FL poll tomorrow and they said that the debate greatly impacted their numbers and that Romney is now clearly ahead in the state. Before it was a tie.

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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2011, 01:38:42 PM »

Reports of Perry's demise are greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Well, PPP will release a new FL poll tomorrow and they said that the debate greatly impacted their numbers and that Romney is now clearly ahead in the state. Before it was a tie.

Sounds like the debate and Cain's upset straw win both fell in the middle of their polling.  Unclear whether it was the debate, the press, Cain's win or the press of that (no doubt even bigger news in FL than nationally) or the whole shebang that started to hurt Perry.

Also not clear that Perry's slippage in senior-rich Florida will be found nationally.  By CNN's measure, not so much.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2011, 01:42:31 PM »

Cainmentum, baby!

I think Perry is stacking himself up for a Giuliani style loss. Yeah, the nat numbers still look good but he's lost Florida (and probably Iowa), he never had a shot in New Hampshire, and a late Cain/Newt dual resergence could spell trouble in South Carolina.  First four primary losses could prove to be lethal.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2011, 01:48:26 PM »

Cainmentum, baby!

I think Perry is stacking himself up for a Giuliani style loss. Yeah, the nat numbers still look good but he's lost Florida (and probably Iowa), he never had a shot in New Hampshire, and a late Cain/Newt dual resergence could spell trouble in South Carolina.  First four primary losses could prove to be lethal.

I'll believe Perry's in trouble in Iowa when I see it.  Forget the first 4, hard to see how losing South Carolina by itself wouldn't be fatal to a Perry campaign.  If he won it though, losing Florida probably wouldn't be the knockout punch it was to Giuliani.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2011, 02:41:45 PM »

Reports of Perry's demise are greatly exaggerated, apparently.

This corpse is still warm.

Anyway, his state polling numbers (especially in the early states) are terrible. Iowa is okay, but the support there is quite shaky and he hasn't campaigned there much. In New Hampshire he's barely even a frontrunner, he's now losing Florida, and South Carolina could very well be stolen if the "frontrunner" label is gone due to losses in Iowa and New Hampshire (in particular, if a candidate other than Perry or Romney gets Iowa, Perry loses all real appeal)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2011, 03:21:53 PM »

Who is Perry going to lose Iowa to? Bachmann, whose campaign is dead? Gingrich, who never had a campaign in the first place? Romney, who's basically ignoring the state? Perry was never going to win New Hampshire. And if he wins Iowa, he wins South Carolina.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2011, 03:33:51 PM »

Who is Perry going to lose Iowa to? Bachmann, whose campaign is dead? Gingrich, who never had a campaign in the first place? Romney, who's basically ignoring the state? Perry was never going to win New Hampshire. And if he wins Iowa, he wins South Carolina.

If Romney's campaign stops emphasizing that they're not trying to win in Iowa, Romney can win in Iowa. Iowa is more unsettled than the national race - a Cain or Bachmann victory seems unlikely, but it wouldn't be surprising. (Should I count out Santorum? Yeah, I probably should.)
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2011, 03:58:21 PM »

This poll also shows that the media narrative and 3 bad debates have barely dented Perry's poll numbers which are down only a couple points from CNN's poll from a month ago. By all accounts Romney has had a great month. He has performed well at the debates and the only one attacking him is Perry, with the rest mostly focusing on Perry so he hasn't had to deal with the piling-on like Perry has, and yet Romney still is only at 21% (3% less than his high mark in CNN poll in June).

We wont have a better picture until polling comes out from IA and SC to show if Perry has lost ground in those two key states, but I suspect he is still leading in both.

But the campaign really doesnt start until the air war starts and Perry's Super PACs are going to go hard after Romney (and anyone in IA and SC that they see as a threat). The notion that it is over for Perry is just silly.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2011, 04:11:03 PM »

RCP has Perry up by 7. Perhaps that's registered voters.

I would like to mention, though it's still a substantial lead, Romney has almost cut the lead in half from two weeks ago - two weeks ago CNN had him trailing Perry by 12.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2011, 04:23:37 PM »

RCP has Perry up by 7. Perhaps that's registered voters.

I would like to mention, though it's still a substantial lead, Romney has almost cut the lead in half from two weeks ago - two weeks ago CNN had him trailing Perry by 12.

Its is the difference between with or w/o Palin

Perry lead
Poll:       Sept. 23-25 / Sept. 9-11
w/ Palin:   +7  /  +12
w/o Palin:  +8   /  +11

Being that the w/o Palin numbers are more important, then Perry has a +8 (down from +11). Not good, but not dire
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cavalcade
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2011, 04:31:50 PM »

Who is Perry going to lose Iowa to? Bachmann, whose campaign is dead? Gingrich, who never had a campaign in the first place? Romney, who's basically ignoring the state? Perry was never going to win New Hampshire. And if he wins Iowa, he wins South Carolina.

And then runs up the score in the Real South on Super Tuesday.
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argentarius
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2011, 04:45:29 PM »

I would think beating Huntsman and Santorum in one of their more recent polls and inclusion in the latest debate would merit a Gary Johnson option. I'd be wrong.
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