CNN: Perry leads by 8

[Bull Moose Base]

First national poll taken after Thursday's debate?

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(Also shows Obama leading all Republicans head-to-head.)

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/09/26/rel16a-1a.pdf

[Bull Moose Base]

Reports of Perry's demise are greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Well, PPP will release a new FL poll tomorrow and they said that the debate greatly impacted their numbers and that Romney is now clearly ahead in the state. Before it was a tie.

Sounds like the debate and Cain's upset straw win both fell in the middle of their polling.  Unclear whether it was the debate, the press, Cain's win or the press of that (no doubt even bigger news in FL than nationally) or the whole shebang that started to hurt Perry.

Also not clear that Perry's slippage in senior-rich Florida will be found nationally.  By CNN's measure, not so much.

[Bull Moose Base]

Cainmentum, baby!

I think Perry is stacking himself up for a Giuliani style loss. Yeah, the nat numbers still look good but he's lost Florida (and probably Iowa), he never had a shot in New Hampshire, and a late Cain/Newt dual resergence could spell trouble in South Carolina.  First four primary losses could prove to be lethal.

I'll believe Perry's in trouble in Iowa when I see it.  Forget the first 4, hard to see how losing South Carolina by itself wouldn't be fatal to a Perry campaign.  If he won it though, losing Florida probably wouldn't be the knockout punch it was to Giuliani.