Perry wins Iowa, Romney wins NH, who wins Nevada?

[Jacobtm]

So let's imagine Perry wins Iowa and Romney wins NH.

The next contest is Nevada. Romney cleaned up there last time, but Perry just got Governor Brian Sandoval's endorsement.

Tied up 1-1, Nevada will be hotly contested.

Does Perry have a shot? Or will Romney have this on lock no matter what? Would a small win by Romney amount to a loss as far as the media is concerned?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Perry.  This is the same state that nominated Sharron Angle.

Does the fact that Texas is close to Nevada help him?

[© tweed]

Perry.  This is the same state that nominated Sharron Angle.

Does the fact that Texas is close to Nevada help him?

the problem is the Mormons: comprised 26% of the NV Republican electorate in 2008, going a black-like 95% for Romney.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Romney... might not be a total walk-over... but Romney would win.

[tmthforu94]

Mormons would be coming out in full force, so I'd say Romney has a pretty good chance at winning this. Maybe not like 2008 margins, but still by a good bit.

[Torie]

I kind of think Perry won't be in the race by Nevada, so the issue may well be moot. In any event, Mittens. Perry will be shut out in the West is my guess.

[angus]

Does the fact that Texas is close to Nevada help him?

Maybe, but it's closer still to Utah.

[Mehmentum]

Romney would probably win, but not by much which will hurt him in the media narrative, particularly when compared to Perry's (probably) blowout in South Carolina.

[Averroës Nix]

Perry.  This is the same state that nominated Sharron Angle.

Does the fact that Texas is close to Nevada help him?

the problem is the Mormons: comprised 26% of the NV Republican electorate in 2008, going a black-like 95% for Romney.

Romney's floor in Nevada is probably close to 35-40% for this reason. Barring the incredibly unlikely possibility that Huntsman hasn't withdrawn (and the equally incredible possibility that he's polling above the low single digits), there's no cutting into that.

[The Mikado]

Texas is close to Nevada?  It's, like, a 2 day drive, a 3 day drive if you're starting from any of the civilized areas of Texas.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Texas is close to Nevada?  It's, like, a 2 day drive, a 3 day drive if you're starting from any of the civilized areas of Texas.

Closer than Massachusetts or Michigan.

[Jacobtm]

The idea of being from a neighboring state helping a candidate is pretty ridiculous in terms of actual Geography.

Romney and Huntsman probably get much bigger boosts from their Mormonism than Perry does from being kinda a little close.

Perry probably gets a bigger boost in South Carolina than he would in Nevada, because of the whole ''southern conservative'' thing he does.

[Averroës Nix]

The idea of being from a neighboring state helping a candidate is pretty ridiculous in terms of actual Geography.

I can think of three reasons why it would help, in order of ascending importance:

1) Shared media markets
2) Outmigration from the candidate's home state to the state in which the election is taking place
3) Shared regional culture (especially New England, the South, and the Upper Midwest)

#1 and #2 really just help with prior exposure, so they might not improve a candidates standing depending on campaign dynamics.

In this case, you're right. Texas and Nevada are divided by two large states and hundreds of miles of mountain and desert. They're not in the same region and have few important cultural ties. And most of the Texan population is concentrated in the state's less arid eastern half, which is even farther from Nevada.

[Jacobtm]

3) Shared regional culture (especially New England, the South, and the Upper Midwest)

Right. I think a good ol' boy from TN would do better in Georgia than would someone like Charlie Christ from Florida. GA and FL are neighbors, but Charlie Christ sure as hell ain't no Georgia Bo...

[Averroës Nix]

3) Shared regional culture (especially New England, the South, and the Upper Midwest)

Right. I think a good ol' boy from TN would do better in Georgia than would someone like Charlie Christ from Florida. GA and FL are neighbors, but Charlie Christ sure as hell ain't no Georgia Bo...

To be clear, the candidate him/herself matters. (For that matter, other than the panhandle, Florida's not so Southern.)

[Jacobtm]

3) Shared regional culture (especially New England, the South, and the Upper Midwest)

Right. I think a good ol' boy from TN would do better in Georgia than would someone like Charlie Christ from Florida. GA and FL are neighbors, but Charlie Christ sure as hell ain't no Georgia Bo...

To be clear, the candidate him/herself matters. (For that matter, other than the panhandle, Florida's not so Southern.)

Right. The ''neighboring state'' thing is meaningless because of the differences you can get within neighboring states. If the candidate matches the state's style, that's one thing, but simply being from a neighboring state isn't important on its own.

McCain won NH in '08 over Romney, who was a neighbor. NH likes their Mavericks.

[phk]

Romney.

[NHI]

I kind of think Perry won't be in the race by Nevada, so the issue may well be moot. In any event, Mittens. Perry will be shut out in the West is my guess.

I agree with you.

[Averroës Nix]

3) Shared regional culture (especially New England, the South, and the Upper Midwest)

Right. I think a good ol' boy from TN would do better in Georgia than would someone like Charlie Christ from Florida. GA and FL are neighbors, but Charlie Christ sure as hell ain't no Georgia Bo...

To be clear, the candidate him/herself matters. (For that matter, other than the panhandle, Florida's not so Southern.)

Right. The ''neighboring state'' thing is meaningless because of the differences you can get within neighboring states. If the candidate matches the state's style, that's one thing, but simply being from a neighboring state isn't important on its own.

McCain won NH in '08 over Romney, who was a neighbor. NH likes their Mavericks.

Other factors often overwhelm regional advantages. But I wouldn't write them off as totally uninfluential and irrelevant. (And NH's John McCain fetish is just weird.)

Anyway, I'm going to re-post this in the new topic that you started.

[Bull Moose Base]

Is Nevada not going the same day as South Carolina this time?

[Jacobtm]

Is Nevada not going the same day as South Carolina this time?

Politico is touting it as the 3rd nominating contest, though I don't know that the dates are yet set in stone.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64375.html

[GLPman]

Romney, although I don't see it as the blowout that some people describe it as.

[Likely Voter]

The last poll (from a month ago) had Perry leading Romney 29% to 24%. It is probably closer to even now and it does look like NV will be the first truly contested state.

I am going to guess Perry, but who the hell knows really. This race keeps changing.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney.