Does being from a neighboring state matter at all?

[Jacobtm]

You often hear that Bachmann was born in Iowa and lives in Minnesota, so that will help her in Iowa. Or that Romney is from Massachusetts so he'll do well in New Hampshire.

I don't think those things matter at all. You have seen it a million times before, a candidate from a neighboring state does terribly in that state's primary.

The way I think about it is that regions have attitudes that can help. Romney's moderate style is what will help him win in NH, not the simple fact he's from MA. McCain won NH even though Romney was in the race in '08. It was simply that NH likes moderate Republicans, but was more than willing to choose an AZ over a MA.

In South Carolina, Perry will probably do well because of the ''southern conservative'' thing he does, even though Newt is from Georgia, and Texas is half-the-country away from SC.

Bachmann might do OK in Iowa, finishing 3rd or 4th, but that isn't because of her geography, but because she's very religious and very conservative and so is the Iowa GOP.

So while geography can impart the same flavor, it's that flavor that is important, not simply being from nearby.

[Jacobtm]

Good post, but I'm definitely thinking about Primaries where it isn't D v. R but a bunch of D's or R's competing.