OH: Quinnipiac University: Obama slightly ahead of Romney/Perry

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2011-09-25

Summary: D: 44%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

44-42 Obama vs. Romney

44-41 Obama vs. Perry



Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?



42-53

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Small lead.  Not surprising for a swing state.  I wonder if the unpopularity of Kasich will push Independent voters away into the Democratic category again

[krazen1211]

That didn't work for Kerry and Bob Taft.

[Tender Branson]

That didn't work for Kerry and Bob Taft.

Bob Taft's approval ratings were about even before the 2004 election, or slightly negative.

His big fall came after the elections.

Besides that, Kerry performed 0.5% better in OH than nationally - so Taft's rating could have had a slightly negative impact for Bush.

[DrScholl]

Considering conditions right now, it's good that Obama has any sort of lead at all.

[TJ in Oregon]

One of the things I like about Quinnipiac is that they break down their polling by region of the state so I can see more of what is happening than from other polling companies. A large part of the reason why Obama won Ohio in 2008 was because he overperformed in NW Ohio by a lot.

This poll shows Romney leading Obama 42-35 in NW Ohio while trailing 42-45 in SW Ohio of all places. The NW also has roughly twice the undecided percentage of anywhere else. Obama's approval/disapproval in NW Ohio is 32/64(!). To compare, Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel 50-36 in NW Ohio, compared to 49-36 overall, so the sample seems to be right. NW respondants also said Obama does not deserve to be re-elected by a 62-33 margin, so I'd venture a guess as to how those undecideds will break...

Obama also only leads 53-36 among union households, so I'm guessing the Kasich backlash will be mostly forgotten by 2012.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This poll shows Romney leading Obama 42-35 in NW Ohio while trailing 42-45 in SW Ohio of all places.

The GOP has completely collapsed in Cincinnati.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

If the Democrats win Hamilton county again it would be difficult to see where the GOP can make up for that other than having larger margins in the rural areas where Obama underperformed traditional Democratic areas

[krazen1211]

That didn't work for Kerry and Bob Taft.

Bob Taft's approval ratings were about even before the 2004 election, or slightly negative.

His big fall came after the elections.

Besides that, Kerry performed 0.5% better in OH than nationally - so Taft's rating could have had a slightly negative impact for Bush.

Taft bottomed out in 2005, but in 2003-2004, he hovered between 40 and 45% or so. Kasich of course is at 40% right now.

http://enquirer.com/midday/03/03042003_News_3mday_taft04.html


At most, such effects are marginal.

[Eraserhead]

It'd make for a hell of an interesting election night if Obama won Ohio while losing Pennsylvania. I doubt that'll happen but just sayin'.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

It'd make for a hell of an interesting election night if Obama won Ohio while losing Pennsylvania. I doubt that'll happen but just sayin'.

Especially if Pennsylvania voted to allocate electors based on congressional district and as a result Obama won just enough electoral votes from Pennsylvania to win the election

[TJ in Oregon]

Here’s a little look at the poll by region against some ’08 numbers. The table is organized such that the areas Obama performed better in ’08 in are toward the top.

Region	08’ 2-Party Prez	Obama Approval	Obama/Romney/Und.	Obama/Perry/Und	Does Obama deserve re-election?
NE	58.56-41.44	44-51	49-38-8	47-38-9	47-47-6
NW	54.62-45.38	32-64(!)	35-42-16	39-40-14	33-62-5 (!)
Central	50.70-49.30	48-50	46-44-8	46-41-9	46-49-5
SW	43.70-56.30	45-50	45-42-8	46-40-10	47-46-7
W-Cent	43.65-56.35	41-54	38-50-10	36-49-9	37-55-8

[Torie]

It'd make for a hell of an interesting election night if Obama won Ohio while losing Pennsylvania. I doubt that'll happen but just sayin'.

No, it's ludicrous, and I don't believe the poll anyway. It will be a very different dynamic, when the two are mano on mano anyway. These polls in that sense are kind of silly. What is not silly, is Obama's approval ratings.