Clinton vs. Gingrich 1996

[Jay20]

Clinton wins Montana again as he did in 1992, carries VA as suburban soccer moms vote in greater numbers for Clinton against Gingrich, Gingrich lacks strength in non-Mormon western states too. Both Gingrich's and Clinton's perceived lack of ethics and fidelity are a wash: Clinton goes head-on against the guy who shut down the government, was reviled by his own GOP colleagues, etc.

Pop vote (no Perot): Clinton/Gore: 58
Gingrich/whoever: 41

Pop vote (with Perot): Clinton/Gore 55
Gingrich: 37
Perot: 7

[Jay20]

Unlike most, I happen to think Gingrich would perform better against Clinton that Dole. It's easy to forget that Dole only lost by 8 pts (49-41-8%), and was a completely inept campaigner (I mean, c'mon, falling off a barnstorming stage??). Gingrich, as polarizing as he was, is much more charismatic than Dole, and probably, much more willing to draw a stark contrast from Clinton than Dole.

Having said that, I Clinton still wins by healthy margin. The growing '96 economy would still be too much to overcome.

Clinton - 352 (-27)
Gingrich - 186 (+27)

Clinton wins 48-41-9%

Gotta remember that by Clinton's own admission, he went easy on Dole the last few days to try to win seats back in Congress, which I think was a mistake because getting under 50% twice, I think, severely undermined his political power (altho he was STILL more effective than Obama). But I don't think Clinton would have done the same against Newt, because Newt was more hated than Dole, even then, and Newt would have made it more personal against Clinton than Dole did, so Clinton would have gone for the slam dunks ahead by 30 in the last 2 minutes