!!!ECRI calls new US Recession!!!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091

---

This is HUGE!

ECRI has the best track record for calling US Recessions - they've called them correct for decades WITHOUT a single false call.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

you can put a fork in Obama, folks, he's done.  UE will be north of 10% come Nov 2012, even *IF* the new US recession ends next summer, which is a BIG *IF*.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You look euphoric.

Congratulations (?).

No, I've just been following ECRI for 15 years and I've come to trust them more than anyone in calling turns of the business cycle, which is why I have been posting their data on this board for the last 10 years.  And there is no other firm with a perfect track record over the last 3 US recessions without a false call.

When ECRI speaks, you better listen.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Most people don't think we ever got out of a recession. Having that fact simply formalized wouldn't make as big of an impact as you think.

no, ECRI is not saying we never got out of a recession.  In fact, in the Spring of 2009 when everyone was calling for an immediate new depression, ECRI said on March 19th, 2009 "No, our indicators are pointing to a recovery starting by the end of Summer 2009"....I posted it back then:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89928.msg2011710;topicseen#msg2011710

In Mid Dec 2010, their indexes peaked:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=106949.msg2275332;topicseen#msg2275332

And in Feb 2011, they warned we were slowing appreaciably:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=111236.msg2369541;topicseen#msg2369541

Now, in Sept 2009, they calling an outright recession.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Interesting quotes from that article:

at least since the 1970s, the pace of U.S. growth – especially in GDP and jobs – has been stair-stepping down in successive economic expansions.

From 1799 to 1929, nearly 90% of U.S. expansions lasted three years or less

Obviously it was Keynesianism which made recessions shorter, shallower, and less frequent, and expansions longer and higher.  The lesson of history is that we should follow exactly the policies of the 1930s through the 1970s. 

  a

actually, the longest two expansions on record came after the 1970's....though not as robust in their intensity as the recoveries before, the expansions of 1982-1990 and 1991-2000 produced a standard of living never before achieved

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Congratulations, Republicans! You've worked hard for this.

drama, eh?  well, any turkey can tango:

Keyes: By your actions, sir, you are risking the future of the human race!
General Sline: To guarantee the American way of life, I'm willing to take that risk.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well that's not really true, but you've a point and seem to know me awfully well; I thought you were supposed to be rather new here?

maybe intermoderate has a brother.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Hold your horses, um...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15217784

you need to learn the difference between forward looking indicators and laggin indicators.  the UE is a lagging indicator, which means even if the US economy pulls out of this new recession and start raging growth by June 2012...the UE won't start dropping again until a couple of months after the resumption of growth which would be too close to the election for the public to notice.