CT a Tossup with Romney: PPP

[mondale84]

"Connecticut isn't a place that would go on anybody's list of swing states but Barack Obama is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney there, leading only 47-45.

Obama's poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity.  Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49.  That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March- at that time Obama's approval was a positive 55/39 spread.  The decline has come because he's unpopular with independents (41/53) and also because an unusually high 20% of Democrats disapprove of the job he's doing."

47-45 Obama vs. Romney
53-41 Obama vs. Perry
51-38 Obama vs. Paul
54-38 Obama vs. Gingrich
55-36 Obama vs. Bachmann

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CT_0930925.pdf

[Heimdal]

That is impressive.

[Eraserhead]

Wow. Those damned fake Democrat pollsters strike again with their overly optimistic Obama numbers!

[Mehmentum]

Wow.

[Peeperkorn]

Wow.

obama lol

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I could see Romney playing well in Connecticut if Obama remains unpopular. He won't win there, but he could force Obama to spend a little money in the state.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Thinking outlier.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

They used internals favoring the Republicans - once again.

[cavalcade]

Well, well.  That's interesting.

Possibly the one state where Obama's (perceived, if you like) attacks on Wall Street will backfire politically.

Thinking outlier.

Also a possibility, yes.  

If only there was a highly respected pollster based in Connecticut, then they could poll their home state and see what the deal is.

[DrScholl]

That 45% is Romney's ceiling, if he isn't leading the President with his approvals underwater, it's not a state that will flip.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen once had Obama leading McCain by only 3 points in June 2008.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=920080529016

But then he won by 23.

Totally different story, but just telling you. It could be an outlier, but Romney could also be close.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Rasmussen once had Obama leading McCain by only 3 points in June 2008.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=920080529016

What?  Now I wonder what the point is in polling for presidential elections, at all.  That's way off, even for Rasmussen.

[CatoMinor]

Rasmussen once had Obama leading McCain by only 3 points in June 2008.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=920080529016

But then he won by 23.

Totally different story, but just telling you. It could be an outlier, but Romney could also be close.

Is it really fair to bring up a poll from the summer when the race was still much closer?

[Vosem]

They used internals favoring the Republicans - once again.

PPP:

a) is a Democratic pollster
b) has the best track record of any multi-state pollster currently operating

You're about an inch from the ignore list, bud.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The only part of this poll I believe: Connecticut Republicans are far better off having Romney on the ticket than the others.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You're about an inch from the ignore list, bud.

Wow, I'm crushed.

[tmthforu94]

I don't think these are completely crazy results. That being said, unless Romney is the heavy favorite going into election day, Connecticut will vote for Obama. If I had to guess, in a toss-up election, Obama will probably win Connecticut by 8-11 points against Romney.

[Miles]

I wonder how many of the 20% of Democrats disapproving are disappointed liberals.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I wonder how many of the 20% of Democrats disapproving are disappointed liberals.

As a Connecticut Democrat somewhat in that 20%, I can tell ya.  100%.

[Napoleon]

I wonder how many of the 20% of Democrats disapproving are disappointed liberals.

As a Connecticut Democrat somewhat in that 20%, I can tell ya.  100%.

Yeah same. I can also confirm this poll is a mothering joke and should disregarded. Not surprised the usual suspects have decided to be hacks with an extreme outlier.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Also, I think Romney have a serious shot in Massachusetts.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

It'd be interesting to see Connecticut go Republican once more, as the last time it went Republican in a close election was 1976, but no, not happening unless there's something far beyond your average ordinary Presidential election.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Also, I think Romney have a serious shot in Massachusetts.

Nah.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I think Romney could well overperform in CT and NJ, and win some Kerry 04 voters if things continue this way.

[Devils30]

i think it's a slight outlier, I agree about the probable 8-12 margin against Romney in CT. That said, Romney does appeal to those socially moderate, "old" money types, which Perry would have zero chance of in a general.