Obama Campaign Borrows From Bush ‘04 Playbook

[krazen1211]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/02/obama-campaign-borrows-from-bush-04-playbook/

Yet in important electoral battlegrounds, Mr. Obama’s strategists intend to use abortion, gay rights, the environment and successes in the fight against Al Qaeda to counter economic attacks and drive a wedge between Republicans and swing voters.




Good luck with that. It will certainly be interesting to see the social issues card again.

[Wonkish1]

I'm seriously hoping he is dumb enough to do this.

[Sbane]

I'm seriously hoping he is dumb enough to do this.

It's not going to hurt him. Social conservatives overestimate their support. But yes, the economy is much more important so likely people will ignore these issues.

[Wonkish1]

I'm seriously hoping he is dumb enough to do this.

It's not going to hurt him. Social conservatives overestimate their support. But yes, the economy is much more important so likely people will ignore these issues.

It will hurt him if people perceive him as not focused on the ball, the economy. I think most people way overestimate how much wealthy suburbanites dislike strict social conservatism. For most wealthy suburbanites barely batting away hard social conservatism is a luxury of a booming economy. It wont even enter their mind in a bad one, and they'll turn against the party/candidate that is out to score points on social issues at all. Because they really don't care that much.

[Sbane]

I disagree that wealthy suburbanites don't care at all about social issues or the far right rhetoric that comes from the Republican party about issues other than the economy. Maybe not the Milwaukee suburbs, or the suburbs of Nashville or Atlanta, but it does matter in NOVA, Philly and Denver. But like I said, they will probably just end up voting on the economy anyways, but they will have concerns about Republicans in the back of their mind. If Republicans win in 2012, they would be wise to keep that in the back of their mind as well.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

It worked for Bennett in CO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the economy is still in the toilet... good luck with that. Unless the Republicans pick an absolute nutter, of course.

It worked for Bennett in CO.

I don't think it exactly hurt, but (IMO anyway) what really worked for him was a Republican candidate with a dodgy record on rape, which is something that does tend to alienate female swing voters just a tad.

[Wonkish1]

I disagree that wealthy suburbanites don't care at all about social issues or the far right rhetoric that comes from the Republican party about issues other than the economy. Maybe not the Milwaukee suburbs, or the suburbs of Nashville or Atlanta, but it does matter in NOVA, Philly and Denver. But like I said, they will probably just end up voting on the economy anyways, but they will have concerns about Republicans in the back of their mind. If Republicans win in 2012, they would be wise to keep that in the back of their mind as well.

Your wrong about Denver! Douglas county really couldn't care much about social issues. West Arapahoe and Adams counties and the southern part of Weld far suburbs and exurbs are actually more socially conservative than socially liberal because of them being so close to the ranches. Its only in the very close suburbs of Denver and the Northwest suburbs do the people actually care about social issues and are socially liberal. Most people don't understand what has been happening in Colorado at the state level. The 2 sides of the GOP in Colorado hate each others guts so their disunity has all but destroyed themselves in statewide elections. That isn't what happens in national elections though because the nomination process doesn't have to be born out of just Colorado.

[Sbane]

I disagree that wealthy suburbanites don't care at all about social issues or the far right rhetoric that comes from the Republican party about issues other than the economy. Maybe not the Milwaukee suburbs, or the suburbs of Nashville or Atlanta, but it does matter in NOVA, Philly and Denver. But like I said, they will probably just end up voting on the economy anyways, but they will have concerns about Republicans in the back of their mind. If Republicans win in 2012, they would be wise to keep that in the back of their mind as well.

Your wrong about Denver! Douglas county really couldn't care much about social issues. West Arapahoe and Adams counties and the southern part of Weld far suburbs and exurbs are actually more socially conservative than socially liberal because of them being so close to the ranches. Its only in the very close suburbs of Denver and the Northwest suburbs do the people actually care about social issues and are socially liberal. Most people don't understand what has been happening in Colorado at the state level. The 2 sides of the GOP in Colorado hate each others guts so their disunity has all but destroyed themselves in statewide elections. That isn't what happens in national elections though because the nomination process doesn't have to be born out of just Colorado.

You must mean East Arapahoe? Anyways, Jefferson County determines who wins Colorado. They might vote GOP in 2012, but good luck winning them again after you guys push your ridiculous social conservative agenda.

[Peeperkorn]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/02/obama-campaign-borrows-from-bush-04-playbook/

Yet in important electoral battlegrounds, Mr. Obama’s strategists intend to use abortion, gay rights, the environment and successes in the fight against Al Qaeda to counter economic attacks and drive a wedge between Republicans and swing voters.




Good luck with that. It will certainly be interesting to see the social issues card again.

Could works in some states if Obama campaign is in desperation.

[Wonkish1]

I disagree that wealthy suburbanites don't care at all about social issues or the far right rhetoric that comes from the Republican party about issues other than the economy. Maybe not the Milwaukee suburbs, or the suburbs of Nashville or Atlanta, but it does matter in NOVA, Philly and Denver. But like I said, they will probably just end up voting on the economy anyways, but they will have concerns about Republicans in the back of their mind. If Republicans win in 2012, they would be wise to keep that in the back of their mind as well.

Your wrong about Denver! Douglas county really couldn't care much about social issues. West Arapahoe and Adams counties and the southern part of Weld far suburbs and exurbs are actually more socially conservative than socially liberal because of them being so close to the ranches. Its only in the very close suburbs of Denver and the Northwest suburbs do the people actually care about social issues and are socially liberal. Most people don't understand what has been happening in Colorado at the state level. The 2 sides of the GOP in Colorado hate each others guts so their disunity has all but destroyed themselves in statewide elections. That isn't what happens in national elections though because the nomination process doesn't have to be born out of just Colorado.

You must mean East Arapahoe? Anyways, Jefferson County determines who wins Colorado. They might vote GOP in 2012, but good luck winning them again after you guys push your ridiculous social conservative agenda.

Nope not East Arapohoe. West to Central Arapahoe, there are no suburbs in east Arapahoe its just all ranches. I would agree with you on Jefferson county, but keep in mind that the Colorado GOP traditionally nominates way, way, way more socially conservative candidates than are currently in the GOP primaries. Ken Buck and Tancredo are very socially conservative candidates. The problem is that each primary Douglas county goes to war with ranchers out in Weld county and the eastern part of the state. The GOP in those parts is dominated by social conservatives that say they wont vote for a candidate that doesn't sign pledges against the morning after pill, advocating harsh penalties for those that get abortions, very tough anti gay language, etc. Those people usually beat those in the suburbs like Douglas county and so a super duper social conservative gets on the ballot. And its scares away the voters in Jefferson county and depresses what should be huge numbers out of Douglas.

If Douglas county wins the primary like with Pete Coors, a bunch of the eastern GOP doesn't show up at the polls during the general, and the 2 sides never put up a compromise candidate because they hate each other too much. Now assuming there isn't very radical social views(Bachmann) being expressed by the GOP candidate Jefferson county voters will not even take them into account. And instead Obama will end up wedging himself even bigger losses in Weld, Adams, Arapahoe, Elbert, etc.

[Sbane]

Well, yeah, east Arapahoe is of course all ranches and nobody lives there and thus is irrelevant. Amongst the areas where people actually live, only the southeastern part is near ranches. Extreme western Arapahoe is smack dab in the middle of an urban area.

As for the GOP primaries, most of them are pretty far to the right on social issues. Bachmann being the most out there, yeah. Romney will win the state, no doubt, but I'm not sure about Perry or Cain. Christie would win it too, of course.

[Wonkish1]

Well, yeah, east Arapahoe is of course all ranches and nobody lives there and thus is irrelevant. Amongst the areas where people actually live, only the southeastern part is near ranches. Extreme western Arapahoe is smack dab in the middle of an urban area.

As for the GOP primaries, most of them are pretty far to the right on social issues. Bachmann being the most out there, yeah. Romney will win the state, no doubt, but I'm not sure about Perry or Cain. Christie would win it too, of course.

I'm not talking about the damn tech center. But you go 2 miles straight east and your in suburbia. You go another 8 miles and you are on a horse ranch.

Even Santorum and Perry on social issues are significant move to left from a GOP primary in the state of Colorado. Bachmann is the only one that is close to a Buck or Tancredo. Santorum or Perry aren't going to sign pledges advocating for jail time for those that dispense morning after pills or get abortions. Its a completely different ballgame in Colorado social conservatism.

[Marokai Backbeat]

He intends to use his huge successes against Al Qaeda against his opponents? Well that bastard. How dare he campaign on foreign policy successes.

[Jacobtm]

Obama should destroy Romney over Romneycare.

Remember when Cheney criticized Kerry for voting against some military project that Cheney himself as Defense Secretary opposed?