WV Governor - The Results Thread
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  WV Governor - The Results Thread
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Author Topic: WV Governor - The Results Thread  (Read 11544 times)
Miles
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« Reply #75 on: October 04, 2011, 11:07:32 PM »


Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there.  
I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House delegation is 2 to 1 GOP.

Eh, kinda. McKinley was a fluke and he will be gone in 2012. I'll be campaigning against him next year Wink


Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there. 
I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House deligation is 2 to 1 GOP.

I also take issue with WV Democrat = MA/MD Democrat. Massachusetts and Maryland are much more liberal than West Virginia.

I never said that WV was a liberal state.

I know you said:

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What I'm saying is that they have different positions on the issues despite being "Democrats". I'd wager there is much higher support for banning abortion and gay marriage among WV Democrats than MA Democrats.

Yes, absolutely. WV Democrats are much more conservative than the party as a whole.
The voters there can distinguish between the state Dems and the national Dems. Hillary would have won it in 2008 though.
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Torie
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« Reply #76 on: October 05, 2011, 12:07:52 AM »

Just to be clear to everyone, I compared the Tomblin numbers to the Obama numbers and factored in that Obama lost WV by 13% to get my baselines. That caused some odds swings, even putting aside Tomblin's geographic base. Maybe they were more muted vis a vis the Manchin-Raese race, which is fine. That would tease out perhaps the racial factor.  Maybe Kanawha is totally not racist.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #77 on: October 05, 2011, 12:23:50 AM »

West Virginia is strong Democratic state on local/congressional level. Of course, it's not a liberal state but a Democratic candidate with an appeal to Appalachian voters could carry it. As of last nominees, Gore lost his previous regional appeal while Vice President, Kerry never had and, Obama even more.
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Meeker
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« Reply #78 on: October 05, 2011, 01:32:23 AM »

Woooooooo Earl Ray!
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #79 on: October 05, 2011, 01:48:09 AM »

Good! Tomblin (an "old school" "pro-gun, pro-life and, simultaneously, pro-business and pro-labor" Democrat) was a much better fit for this conservative-leaning, but somewhat populist state then far right Maloney.. My latest forecast was 51-48  Tomblin, so i underestimated somewhat the strenght of 3rd parties, but was generally correct. BTW - because Mountain party is to the left of state Democrats, Republicans would get zero of it's votes if they wouldn't run a candidate, and, most likely, Tomblin would win with absolute majority then. But rather good showing of Maloney (plus "somewhat unexpected" victories of Hochul and Turner and rather good result of Huey in Ca-36 (despite being very much too conservative for district)) shows that considerable part of the voters is in "antiincumbent" mood now, and very ready to consider alternatives.. Combined with redistricting changes that can lead to rather big number of "surprises" next November...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #80 on: October 05, 2011, 02:27:58 AM »

Well, another good call by PPP then.

The final result is something like 49.5-47.5, and PPP said 47-46.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #81 on: October 05, 2011, 02:46:12 AM »

Dave, it seems you got the Kanawa (or whatever it is spelled) numbers wrong in the map.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #82 on: October 05, 2011, 03:02:42 AM »

Well, another good call by PPP then.

The final result is something like 49.5-47.5, and PPP said 47-46.

Obvious Dem hack pollster is obvious.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #83 on: October 05, 2011, 08:22:44 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2011, 08:30:51 AM by Dave Leip »

Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

I went right to the source:

http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/countyresults.aspx?countyId=20

Bill MaloneyRepublican18,23149.41%
Earl Ray Tomblin   Democrat17,65447.85%
Bob Henry Baber   Mountain6971.89%
Marla Dee Ingels   Independent2050.56%
Write Ins630.17%
Harry V. BertramAmerican Third Position48   0.13%
Dave
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #84 on: October 05, 2011, 08:59:37 AM »

Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

I went right to the source:

http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/countyresults.aspx?countyId=20

Bill MaloneyRepublican18,23149.41%
Earl Ray Tomblin   Democrat17,65447.85%
Bob Henry Baber   Mountain6971.89%
Marla Dee Ingels   Independent2050.56%
Write Ins630.17%
Harry V. BertramAmerican Third Position48   0.13%
Dave

The AP site got it right, the SoS page mixed up the numbers:

http://www.kanawha.us/election/election2011.asp
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #85 on: October 05, 2011, 09:19:34 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2011, 09:33:43 AM by Tmthforu94 »

What's up with Logan County? Huge swing from 2010 numbers.

Another thought - think Ireland could have won this? I feel pretty certain Capito could have, and she may be kicking herself.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #86 on: October 05, 2011, 10:03:11 AM »

Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

I went right to the source:

http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/countyresults.aspx?countyId=20

Bill MaloneyRepublican18,23149.41%
Earl Ray Tomblin   Democrat17,65447.85%
Bob Henry Baber   Mountain6971.89%
Marla Dee Ingels   Independent2050.56%
Write Ins630.17%
Harry V. BertramAmerican Third Position48   0.13%
Dave

The AP site got it right, the SoS page mixed up the numbers:

http://www.kanawha.us/election/election2011.asp

Now the SoS site has corrected their mistake.

What's up with Logan County? Huge swing from 2010 numbers.

Tomblin's home county is Logan.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #87 on: October 05, 2011, 11:07:58 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2011, 11:11:17 AM by Dave Leip »

Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

I went right to the source:

http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/countyresults.aspx?countyId=20

Bill MaloneyRepublican18,23149.41%
Earl Ray Tomblin   Democrat17,65447.85%
Bob Henry Baber   Mountain6971.89%
Marla Dee Ingels   Independent2050.56%
Write Ins630.17%
Harry V. BertramAmerican Third Position48   0.13%
Dave

The AP site got it right, the SoS page mixed up the numbers:

http://www.kanawha.us/election/election2011.asp

Thanks - not the first time the official state agency has done such.  I've corrected the results - and expect that the SoS will catch it as well.  Edit Already caught it Smiley

Dave
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #88 on: October 05, 2011, 11:59:41 AM »

Just to be clear to everyone, I compared the Tomblin numbers to the Obama numbers and factored in that Obama lost WV by 13% to get my baselines. That caused some odds swings, even putting aside Tomblin's geographic base. Maybe they were more muted vis a vis the Manchin-Raese race, which is fine. That would tease out perhaps the racial factor.  Maybe Kanawha is totally not racist.


(The second map is 1996 to 2000, not 2000 to 2004, which doesn't show much of interest except for more Coal Country Republican Resurgence.)

What does the Eastern Panhandle look like in your metric?
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Meeker
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« Reply #89 on: October 05, 2011, 12:04:56 PM »

Voter turnout was about 25%.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #90 on: October 05, 2011, 12:42:21 PM »

Another thought - think Ireland could have won this?

No.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #91 on: October 05, 2011, 01:00:26 PM »

25% turnout.  Haha, pathetic.   I was too generous when I said I bet only 1/3 turn out. 

Especially in the coal country, they are typical blue collar Democrats.  "My daddy was a Democrat, and I don't do politics except when every 2 yrs when I go vote Democrats"  Haha

My mom called it when she saw the news clip and said, "Oh sh**t, Earl Ray?"  He's a shoo in
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #92 on: October 05, 2011, 01:06:02 PM »


Actually, Mahoney did pretty well, as far as I can read - getting within 2.5% is not too bad really (though what does it matter).  I doubt any other candidate could have done better, except maybe Capito, and she would have never run in this situation.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #93 on: October 05, 2011, 02:26:45 PM »

What's up with Logan County? Huge swing from 2010 numbers.

Another thought - think Ireland could have won this? I feel pretty certain Capito could have, and she may be kicking herself.

Capito could safely run without giving up her seat. Unless she's in love with House, she's an idiot.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #94 on: October 05, 2011, 08:26:27 PM »

25% turnout? Really? Looks like the Governor is going to have a real problem on his hands in year.

Unless she's in love with House, she's an idiot.

Not sure what a popular TV show doctor has to do with anything but ok.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #95 on: October 05, 2011, 08:45:47 PM »

Anyone have the results out of Braxton County? My family is from their. It heavilly Democratic.
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RI
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« Reply #96 on: October 05, 2011, 08:48:05 PM »

Anyone have the results out of Braxton County? My family is from their. It heavilly Democratic.

57.10%-38.94% Tomblin.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #97 on: October 06, 2011, 02:26:00 PM »

     Forgot about this one too. Tomblin really tumbled from where he was several months ago.
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Badger
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« Reply #98 on: October 08, 2011, 12:30:55 PM »

I think the lesson here is, sadly, Mahoney ran against Obama more than Tomblin, who was otherwise the perfect Democratic condidate, and nearly won.
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