It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel 22/22 1,379 41% 1,806
54%. That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha. I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.
And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide. Odd little patterns.
Point #1: Tomblin SD is Boone, Logan and parts of Lincoln and Wayne. Those counties in full:
2011: 16,159 (73.9%) Tomblin, 5,358 (24.5%) Mahoney, 351 (1.6%) Others (21,868 total, 49.4% margin, 10,801 vote margin, 67.5% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 20,563 (63.4%) Manchin, 11,103 (34.3%) Raese, 746 (2.3%) Others (32,412 total, 29.1% margin, 9,460 vote margin)
Point #2: Rest of Southern Coalfields (at least under the historical definition) is McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Raleigh and Wyoming:
2011: 16,816 (59.7%) Tomblin, 10,684 (37.9%) Mahoney, 680 (2.4%) Others (28,180 total, 21.8% margin, 6,132 vote margin, 52.1% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 29,783 (55.0%) Manchin, 22,877 (42.3%) Raese, 1477 (2.7%) Others (54,137 total 12.7% margin, 6,906 vote margin)
Point #3: Rest of State
2011: 117,757 (46.4%) Tomblin, 126,847 (50.0%) Mahoney, 9,066 (3.6%) Others (253,670 total, -3.6% margin, -9,090 vote margin, 57.2% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 233,012 (52.6%) Manchin, 196,033 (44.2%) Raese, 14,354 (3.2%) Others (443,399 total, 8.4% margin, 33,679 vote margin)
Any questions?
