WV Governor - The Results Thread

[Torie]

Looks good for Tomblin.

Actually in a quick sample of counties I eyeballed, the Dem is either behind a break even pace 52-48, or about dead even. And the Dem is under performing in the big counties. I will be out for an hour. In 30 minutes we may be able to call this race. I expect you guys to call it before I resurface!

What are the home counties for the two candidates? Tomblin's performance really sucks in Ohio county. There the Dem is running behind a break even margin by 4 points, in other words if Ohio matched the state, the Pubbie would win 54-46.

[Torie]

What are the chances of most of the votes coming in right now being absentee?

Could be. Nothing is in from the Pubbie strongholds by the way, or at least that was the case 10-15 minutes ago. I am out of here now.

[Torie]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.

[Torie]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

Maloney is not gaining 8000 votes in these 50 county precincts.

Probably not, and since that county is such an outlier, those uncounted precincts are probably disproportionately Dem.

[Torie]

Maloney now needs to win the remaining precincts by at least 70-30 to break even.

It will probably be a 4% to 6% margin, depending on what's uncounted in Kanawha, unless the Kanawha precincts uncounted are one's where the LDS moved in and made those areas a Mormon "ghetto." Somehow, I doubt that.  It is clearly over now I think.

[Torie]

Kawawha just finished coming in, and Tomblin won by only 49%-48%, by about 600 votes.

Amazing! What an outlier. 4% [3%] or so margin then it looks like.

[Torie]

Just to be clear to everyone, I compared the Tomblin numbers to the Obama numbers and factored in that Obama lost WV by 13% to get my baselines. That caused some odds swings, even putting aside Tomblin's geographic base. Maybe they were more muted vis a vis the Manchin-Raese race, which is fine. That would tease out perhaps the racial factor.  Maybe Kanawha is totally not racist.