WV Governor - The Results Thread (user search)
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  WV Governor - The Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: WV Governor - The Results Thread  (Read 11599 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: October 04, 2011, 06:36:31 PM »
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WV_Governor_1004.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2011, 06:49:30 PM »
Tomblin starts with an 18-point advantage !

2 precincts in ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2011, 07:08:58 PM »
Meh, really slow ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2011, 07:10:39 PM »
Now 60-37 Tomblin.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2011, 07:15:14 PM »
Looks good for Tomblin.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2011, 07:21:49 PM »
52-45-3

If it stays that way, my prediction would be dead-on.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2011, 07:39:33 PM »
Tomblin pulling a bit away now:

52-44

9000 vote advantage with 30% in
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2011, 07:54:46 PM »
Tomblin's vote lead now back to 9000, up from 7000.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2011, 07:57:16 PM »
Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2011, 08:03:42 PM »
I guess the final result will be something like

50.5 Tomblin
46.5 Maloney
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2011, 08:12:24 PM »
What's going on now ?

The leads is down from 10500 to 6500 ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2011, 08:21:39 PM »
Maloney would need to win the remaining 50.000 votes by about 60-40 to break even with Tomblin.

I don't think he can do that.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2011, 08:27:23 PM »

Maybe next year ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2011, 08:31:23 PM »
Quote from: Torie on October 04, 2011, 08:27:43 PM
It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

Maloney is not gaining 8000 votes in these 50 county precincts.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2011, 08:37:26 PM »
Maloney now needs to win the remaining precincts by at least 70-30 to break even.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2011, 02:27:58 AM »
Well, another good call by PPP then.

The final result is something like 49.5-47.5, and PPP said 47-46.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2011, 02:46:12 AM »
Dave, it seems you got the Kanawa (or whatever it is spelled) numbers wrong in the map.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2011, 08:59:37 AM »
Quote from: Dave Leip on October 05, 2011, 08:22:44 AM
Quote from: realisticidealist on October 04, 2011, 10:30:57 PM
Quote from: Dave Leip on October 04, 2011, 10:28:07 PM
Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

I went right to the source:

http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/countyresults.aspx?countyId=20

Bill MaloneyRepublican18,23149.41%
Earl Ray Tomblin   Democrat17,65447.85%
Bob Henry Baber   Mountain6971.89%
Marla Dee Ingels   Independent2050.56%
Write Ins630.17%
Harry V. BertramAmerican Third Position48   0.13%
Dave

The AP site got it right, the SoS page mixed up the numbers:

http://www.kanawha.us/election/election2011.asp
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2011, 10:03:11 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 05, 2011, 08:59:37 AM
Quote from: Dave Leip on October 05, 2011, 08:22:44 AM
Quote from: realisticidealist on October 04, 2011, 10:30:57 PM
Quote from: Dave Leip on October 04, 2011, 10:28:07 PM
Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

I went right to the source:

http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/countyresults.aspx?countyId=20

Bill MaloneyRepublican18,23149.41%
Earl Ray Tomblin   Democrat17,65447.85%
Bob Henry Baber   Mountain6971.89%
Marla Dee Ingels   Independent2050.56%
Write Ins630.17%
Harry V. BertramAmerican Third Position48   0.13%
Dave

The AP site got it right, the SoS page mixed up the numbers:

http://www.kanawha.us/election/election2011.asp

Now the SoS site has corrected their mistake.

Quote from: Tmthforu94 on October 05, 2011, 09:19:34 AM
What's up with Logan County? Huge swing from 2010 numbers.

Tomblin's home county is Logan.
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