WV Governor - The Results Thread

[RI]

Back to 8,000. I believe some heavily Republican counties just finished coming in at the same time (eg Grant County).

[RI]

Kanawha just finished coming in, and Tomblin won by only 49%-48%, by about 600 votes.

[RI]

Map with all counties 100% reporting:

[RI]

Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

[RI]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.

Point #1: Tomblin SD is Boone, Logan and parts of Lincoln and Wayne.  Those counties in full:

2011: 16,159 (73.9%) Tomblin, 5,358 (24.5%) Mahoney, 351 (1.6%) Others (21,868 total, 49.4% margin, 10,801 vote margin, 67.5% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 20,563 (63.4%) Manchin, 11,103 (34.3%) Raese, 746 (2.3%) Others (32,412 total, 29.1% margin, 9,460 vote margin)

Point #2: Rest of Southern Coalfields (at least under the historical definition) is McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Raleigh and Wyoming:
2011: 16,816 (59.7%) Tomblin, 10,684 (37.9%) Mahoney, 680 (2.4%) Others (28,180 total, 21.8% margin, 6,132 vote margin, 52.1% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 29,783 (55.0%) Manchin, 22,877 (42.3%) Raese, 1477 (2.7%) Others (54,137 total 12.7% margin, 6,906 vote margin)

Point #3: Rest of State
2011: 117,757 (46.4%) Tomblin, 126,847 (50.0%) Mahoney, 9,066 (3.6%) Others (253,670 total, -3.6% margin, -9,090 vote margin, 57.2% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 233,012 (52.6%) Manchin, 196,033 (44.2%) Raese, 14,354 (3.2%) Others (443,399 total, 8.4% margin, 33,679 vote margin)

Any questions?

So, I'm guessing that Tomblin lost WV-01 and WV-02 by single-digits but got about 65% in WV-03?

I can calculate CD results real fast, if you want.

[RI]

CD 1: Maloney 51.99%, Tomblin 44.79% (Maloney +8,683)
CD 2: Maloney 50.58%, Tomblin 46.19% (Maloney +4,215)
CD 3: Tomblin 60.58%, Maloney 36.60% (Tomblin +20,740)

[RI]

Anyone have the results out of Braxton County? My family is from their. It heavilly Democratic.

57.10%-38.94% Tomblin.