WV Governor - The Results Thread

[Miles]

with about 34% in, its tightened at 51-45 Tomblin.

[Miles]

Tomblin is from Logan County, Maloney is from Monongalia.

That explains those margins!

Looks like Tomblin got about 90% in Logan! lol

[Miles]

Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.

Yep, its holding pretty steady at 50-51 Tomblin, 46-47 Maloney.

[Miles]

Called for Tomblin.

[Miles]

What's going on now ?

The leads is down from 10500 to 6500 ...

It should start to expand. McDowell and Webster haven't reported yet either; they should both be very friendly to Tomblin.

[Miles]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.

Point #1: Tomblin SD is Boone, Logan and parts of Lincoln and Wayne.  Those counties in full:

2011: 16,159 (73.9%) Tomblin, 5,358 (24.5%) Mahoney, 351 (1.6%) Others (21,868 total, 49.4% margin, 10,801 vote margin, 67.5% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 20,563 (63.4%) Manchin, 11,103 (34.3%) Raese, 746 (2.3%) Others (32,412 total, 29.1% margin, 9,460 vote margin)

Point #2: Rest of Southern Coalfields (at least under the historical definition) is McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Raleigh and Wyoming:
2011: 16,816 (59.7%) Tomblin, 10,684 (37.9%) Mahoney, 680 (2.4%) Others (28,180 total, 21.8% margin, 6,132 vote margin, 52.1% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 29,783 (55.0%) Manchin, 22,877 (42.3%) Raese, 1477 (2.7%) Others (54,137 total 12.7% margin, 6,906 vote margin)

Point #3: Rest of State
2011: 117,757 (46.4%) Tomblin, 126,847 (50.0%) Mahoney, 9,066 (3.6%) Others (253,670 total, -3.6% margin, -9,090 vote margin, 57.2% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 233,012 (52.6%) Manchin, 196,033 (44.2%) Raese, 14,354 (3.2%) Others (443,399 total, 8.4% margin, 33,679 vote margin)

Any questions?

So, I'm guessing that Tomblin lost WV-01 and WV-02 by single-digits but got about 65% in WV-03?

[Miles]

CD 1: Maloney 51.99%, Tomblin 44.79% (Maloney +8,683)
CD 2: Maloney 50.58%, Tomblin 46.19% (Maloney +4,215)
CD 3: Tomblin 60.58%, Maloney 36.60% (Tomblin +20,740)

Thanks.

Tomblin did worse in WV-01; Maloney performed disproportionately well in WV-01 because he was from there, I guess. In any case. not good news for Oliverio

How much longer will WV elect Democratic governors while voting 55-65% for the Republican candidate in presidential elections?

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there. 

[Miles]

Does anyone know how Logan County voted in 2008 between McCain and Obama?  How about last year in the Senate race?

54-44 McCain
81-18 Byrd (2006)
71-29 Rockefeller (2008)
76-20 Manchin (2008)
70-29 Manchin (2010)

[Miles]

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there.  

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House delegation is 2 to 1 GOP.

Eh, kinda. McKinley was a fluke and he will be gone in 2012. I'll be campaigning against him next year

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there. 

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House deligation is 2 to 1 GOP.

I also take issue with WV Democrat = MA/MD Democrat. Massachusetts and Maryland are much more liberal than West Virginia.

I never said that WV was a liberal state.

[Miles]

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there.  

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House delegation is 2 to 1 GOP.

Eh, kinda. McKinley was a fluke and he will be gone in 2012. I'll be campaigning against him next year

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there. 

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House deligation is 2 to 1 GOP.

I also take issue with WV Democrat = MA/MD Democrat. Massachusetts and Maryland are much more liberal than West Virginia.

I never said that WV was a liberal state.

I know you said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What I'm saying is that they have different positions on the issues despite being "Democrats". I'd wager there is much higher support for banning abortion and gay marriage among WV Democrats than MA Democrats.

Yes, absolutely. WV Democrats are much more conservative than the party as a whole.
The voters there can distinguish between the state Dems and the national Dems. Hillary would have won it in 2008 though.