smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,380
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« on: October 05, 2011, 01:48:09 AM » |
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Good! Tomblin (an "old school" "pro-gun, pro-life and, simultaneously, pro-business and pro-labor" Democrat) was a much better fit for this conservative-leaning, but somewhat populist state then far right Maloney.. My latest forecast was 51-48 Tomblin, so i underestimated somewhat the strenght of 3rd parties, but was generally correct. BTW - because Mountain party is to the left of state Democrats, Republicans would get zero of it's votes if they wouldn't run a candidate, and, most likely, Tomblin would win with absolute majority then. But rather good showing of Maloney (plus "somewhat unexpected" victories of Hochul and Turner and rather good result of Huey in Ca-36 (despite being very much too conservative for district)) shows that considerable part of the voters is in "antiincumbent" mood now, and very ready to consider alternatives.. Combined with redistricting changes that can lead to rather big number of "surprises" next November...
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