NC: Civitas Institute: Obama in BIG trouble in NC

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Civitas Institute on 2011-10-01

Summary: D: 41%, R: 48%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

...

50% Romney
39% Obama

48% Perry
41% Obama

[Tender Branson]

[RI]

How reliable is Civitas?

[Tender Branson]

How reliable is Civitas?

Very.

They got everything right within 2 points in 2008 and 2010.

[krazen1211]

Virginia is about 3 points more Dem than NC; its also going GOP most likely under these numbers. 2 polls showed just that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia is about 3 points more Dem than NC; its also going GOP most likely under these numbers. 2 polls showed just that.

You mean the poll that showed Obama and Romney within the margin of error?

[krazen1211]

Virginia is about 3 points more Dem than NC; its also going GOP most likely under these numbers. 2 polls showed just that.

You mean the poll that showed Obama and Romney within the margin of error?

Polls, plural, and yep. The coloring scheme used by the mappers here seems to color states accordingly even within the margin of error.

[pbrower2a]

PPP polled North Carolina over the last weekend. It will either corroborate or repudiate such a result.

[Peeperkorn]

lol obama

[President von Cat]

This shouldn't surprise anybody. Obama looks like have been mortally wounded by the debt ceiling fight, and 2008 was the exception, not the rule! And remember, Bob Barr was also on the ticket in NC and stole enough conservative-leaning votes to let Obama win by the skin of his teeth.

NC is an up and coming purple state, and by the 2020s I expect it to be very competitive. But it took nearly everything going right for the Democrats to win it in 2008. In many ways, Obama has been a candidate/president ahead of his time, and now that may be working against him in some places.

Remember, NC is a must win state for the GOP, but not for the Obama campaign. The GOP nominee cannot get to 270 without it; Obama can.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Civitas is a conservative think tank a friend of mine worked for a year ago, but I think their polling is pretty reliable. I'd be surprised if Obama is this far behind in NC though.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

NC was one of the two states (the other being IN) I never expected Obama to hold on to in 2012.  He only won by pluralities in these states and the last time they voted for a Democratic president was decades ago.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

the good news for Obama is by the time America goes through another recession over the next 13 months, election night in Nov 2012 will end very early and mercifully...so that Obama can make his concession speech before the polls close West of the Mississippi and go to bed very early and soak his pillow.

It ain't gonna be pretty, folks.

[Eraserhead]

Republicans would have to win North Carolina easily to even have a shot. So...

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Republicans would have to North Carolina easily to even have a shot. So...

No joking, this is what North Carolina needs to be if the GOP desperately wants their chance. 

The equivalent of this would be New Jersey showing a race within the margin-of-error and then finally breaking for the Democratic candidate with the Democrats gloating "hah! told you so!
"

[DrScholl]

I find it doubtful that Perry is up by that much and even the Romney number is a stretch. It's still a conservative poll, regardless of what their record is.

[Devilman88]

I would agree with the above post. Lets see what PPP has to show.

[Torie]

NC has a fair number of white moderate middle class voters - just like Virginia. Obama is not playing well to them right now - at all. When you lose votes you got in 2010, like the not only the Torie vote (go Mittens!), but also the moderate left of center anvi vote (he's abstaining), you're in trouble. It's just the "maths" as it were, to put it the way Al and Alfteich would put it.

[Link]

the good news for Obama is by the time America goes through another recession over the next 13 months, election night in Nov 2012 will end very early and mercifully...so that Obama can make his concession speech before the polls close West of the Mississippi and go to bed very early and soak his pillow.

It ain't gonna be pretty, folks.

Man every thread with this guy.  Someone is really hoping the US' economy tanks.

What is with these so called patriotic Republicans?

[RJ]

North Carolina will be contested by both sides and Obama probably won't win it, but 7 pts? I believe this poll as much as I believe the one that says Obama is ahead by 6 pts in Florida.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

the good news for Obama is by the time America goes through another recession over the next 13 months, election night in Nov 2012 will end very early and mercifully...so that Obama can make his concession speech before the polls close West of the Mississippi and go to bed very early and soak his pillow.

It ain't gonna be pretty, folks.

Man every thread with this guy.  Someone is really hoping the US' economy tanks.

What is with these so called patriotic Republicans?

They simply have an intense dislike for the current President.  He's currently the opposite of George W Bush.  The worse the economy, the better for the GOP.  12% unemployment would make the conservatives jump for joy

Of course that is their dream

[President von Cat]

The thing is, even when Bush was at peak unpopularity, I can't recall a single liberal cheering on an economic calamity just so they could win the '08 campaign.

I guess it takes all kinds to make the world go round.