Why the Cain Train will (sadly) be derailed eventually.

[Eraserhead]

I support Herman Cain's bid for the Republican nomination as much as anyone but it's not going to work out in the end and here's why:

1. Mainstream Media plans to ignore him as much as possible.

MSM doesn't seem interested in abandoning the Romney v. Perry story-line as pathetic a candidate as Perry has proven himself to be. They might have dropped it for Christie but not for Cain. I feel like a lot of the white knights at the major networks/periodicals/etc. feel like it's their duty to protect people from a candidate who's "not serious". In Cain's case, he's not taken seriously because he's ultra-right-wing and (more importantly) because he has zero experience as an elected government official. Oh yeah, and he's completely clueless on foreign affairs. Completely.

2. He doesn't have the money or organization to compete with Romney.

Seriously, he doesn't. Romney will be able to murder this guy over the airwaves if he has to (I'm sure he'd rather not go there obviously). Perry has big bucks too but I'm not sure if it matters as much in that case.

3. He's a black.

This might be the most important or the least important reason why he'll probably fail. I have a hard time believing his race will be of much help, especially in those all important southern Republican primaries. Maybe I'm wrong about this one but I doubt it. Prove me wrong, Republicans!

I hope I'm wrong but I'm not. And yes, I'm very bored right now.

[Wonkish1]

I don't agree with anything you wrote except number 2 which is much less of a factor than you think it is.

[pbrower2a]

I support Herman Cain's bid for the Republican nomination as much as anyone but it's not going to work out in the end and here's why:

1. Mainstream Media plans to ignore him as much as possible.

MSM doesn't seem interested in abandoning the Romney v. Perry story-line as pathetic a candidate as Perry has proven himself to be. They might have dropped it for Christie but not for Cain. I feel like a lot of the white knights at the major networks/periodicals/etc. feel like it's their duty to protect people from a candidate who's "not serious". In Cain's case, he's not taken seriously because he's ultra-right-wing and (more importantly) because he has zero experience as an elected government official. Oh yeah, and he's completely clueless on foreign affairs. Completely.

2. He doesn't have the money or organization to compete with Romney.

Seriously, he doesn't. Romney will be able to murder this guy over the airwaves if he has to (I'm sure he'd rather not go there obviously). Perry has big bucks too but I'm not sure if it matters as much in that case.

3. He's a black.

This might be the most important or the least important reason why he'll probably fail. I have a hard time believing his race will be of much help, especially in those all important southern Republican primaries. Maybe I'm wrong about this one but I doubt it. Prove me wrong, Republicans!

I hope I'm wrong but I'm not. And yes, I'm very bored right now.

You have it right. Most significantly, though, Herman Cain has no experience in government either as an elected official or as a high-ranking war hero. The business of which he is a CEO is the sort that few people want their kids to become long-term employees -- contrast EDS when Ross Perot owned it. Who wants fast-food norms of compensation and opportunity as the norm for young adults? Isn't that why smart kids see fast food as an employer of last resort --- something to work at only to keep  the volume of student loans (and later serfdom) down?

Herman Cain has fewer ideas than Ross Perot had...  except for ideas that nobody else in the Hard Right doesn't have. He is a complete naif on diplomacy, military affairs, and government budgeting. Sure, he would be all for budgetary reform, but what the heck? So was Jimmy carter, and look what he achieved with is efforts.   

Herman Cain takes the race card away from the GOP. America is still majority-white, and they will have to address issues more than cultural values.

[Mehmentum]

That lack of media attention didn't seem to stop Cain from leading in all but one (where he got a close second) of the polls that were released yesterday.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

1. Mainstream Media plans to ignore him as much as possible.

that's a good thing for Cain

---

2. He doesn't have the money or organization to compete with Romney.

a win in Iowa solves this problem

---

3. He's a black.

are you sure?

[Paul Kemp]

3. He's a black.

are you sure?

I'm sorry that Eraserhead had to break the news to you. Will you make it through this tough realization?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The power of his 9/9/9 message overrides all of those factors. I've become a believer thanks to  my pastor's message on Sunday.

[Keystone Phil]

The powers that be will end him if he becomes a serious threat. This isn't like Obama vs. Hillary where the anti establishment Obama was more difficult to take down.The party powers might not like Romney but they'll realize that Cain, to put it mildly, isn't the ideal General election candidate. We're pretty much stuck with Romney now (unless Perry can do some near magical reversal) whether we like it or not. Then again, it's still quite awhile until Iowa so maybe a Perry comeback isn't as impossible as it seems.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The powers that be will end him if he becomes a serious threat.

what are they going to do, stuff the ballot boxes, reprogram the voting machines, burn a cross in his front yard?

[Averroës Nix]

2. He doesn't have the money or organization to compete with Romney.

a win in Iowa solves this problem

It didn't for Huckabee.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Iowa has been rendered almost irrelevant in recent GOP cycles. Huck won there and never really gained much traction going forward. This cycle it seems no one seems to care about Iowa either except for the lower tier candidates.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

2. He doesn't have the money or organization to compete with Romney.

a win in Iowa solves this problem

It didn't for Huckabee.

Huck's problem wasnt money, but that he was a regional candidate...you have to have national appeal to win the GOP nomination (also, Huck lost the support of jmfcst).  And outside of NH and UT, Romney's appeal is stuck at 25% and has been for years - basically because he is not trusted and because he doesnt have a message.  But Cain is both trusted and has a message (like Rubio) that's as American as apple pie.

When you have a candidate that has lived an unapologetic conservative American life, without flipflopping, you have a very strong national (not regional) candidate in the GOP primaries.  Thats Cain in a nutshell.

You have no idea how rabid a Cain/Rubio ticket would make the GOP...if you thought the Palin jumper craze of 2008 was crazy, you ain't seen nothin yet.

[cavalcade]

2. He doesn't have the money or organization to compete with Romney.

a win in Iowa solves this problem

It didn't for Huckabee.

Thompson finally woke up and launched an all out attack on him just before the SC primary.  If Huckabee had pulled off a win there (McCain beat him 33-30) things might have been different.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The last time the Republicans nominated someone who'd never held a political office before was in 1952.

And Herman Cain is no Dwight D. Eisenhower.

[Keystone Phil]

The powers that be will end him if he becomes a serious threat.

what are they going to do, stuff the ballot boxes, reprogram the voting machines, burn a cross in his front yard?

There's other pressure that can be put on Republican leaders/donors across the country that would ensure that Cain doesn't win.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The powers that be will end him if he becomes a serious threat.

what are they going to do, stuff the ballot boxes, reprogram the voting machines, burn a cross in his front yard?

There's other pressure that can be put on Republican leaders/donors across the country that would ensure that Cain doesn't win.

yeah, that strategy really worked during the 2010 Senate primaries - nothing compares to the power of the ballot box.  The Carl Rove's of the world can't stop Herman Cain, only Herman Cain can do that.

[Torie]

jmfcst old chap, you do know that nobody has bothered to attack Cain yet don't you? And his little plans (well "plans" gives his little skeletal outlines too much credit; maybe marquee headline jingles would be more accurate at the moment) are ludicrous, and easily shredded. But I don't think Mittens will need to go through that exercise.  Maybe he can induce Santorum or one of the attack dogs to do it for him if that proves necessary.

And some folks are chatting about Mittens putting Cain on the ticket, which is equally ludicrous. I say all of this as one who very much likes Cain personally. He's a sweetheart!  

[Averroës Nix]

jmfcst old chap, you do know that nobody has bothered to attack Cain yet don't you? And his little plans are ludicrous, and easily shredded. But I don't think Mittens will need to go through that exercise.  Maybe he can induce Santorum or one of the attacks dogs to do it for him if that proves necessary.

Generally agree, but Santorum's attacks (feisty, vicious, only reaches a wide audience at debates) probably aren't what will do Cain in. Cain is cool and quick on his feet. He's capable of deflecting Santorum and swiftly and deftly calling him out for being a jerk, probably to an audience ovation.

[Keystone Phil]

The powers that be will end him if he becomes a serious threat.

what are they going to do, stuff the ballot boxes, reprogram the voting machines, burn a cross in his front yard?

There's other pressure that can be put on Republican leaders/donors across the country that would ensure that Cain doesn't win.

yeah, that strategy really worked during the 2010 Senate primaries - nothing compares to the power of the ballot box.  The Carl Rove's of the world can't stop Herman Cain, only Herman Cain can do that.

Ok, dude, this isn't the Delaware or Colorado or whatever other state Senate primary. We're talking a much larger scale.

Of course it comes down to the power of the ballot box but you have to think about what influences voters before and how they get there. Money and organization influences decision making.

[Torie]

jmfcst old chap, you do know that nobody has bothered to attack Cain yet don't you? And his little plans are ludicrous, and easily shredded. But I don't think Mittens will need to go through that exercise.  Maybe he can induce Santorum or one of the attacks dogs to do it for him if that proves necessary.

Generally agree, but Santorum's attacks (feisty, vicious, only reaches a wide audience at debates) probably aren't what will do Cain in. Cain is cool and quick on his feet. He's capable of deflecting Santorum and swiftly and deftly calling him out for being a jerk, probably to an audience ovation.

Ya, Rick can throw a hard punch, but he can't dance like a butterfly and sting like a bee like Mohammed Ali could, and it does take a considerable degree of skill to put away such a truly decent human being, with such a compelling bio, and a lot of personal courage. It needs to be done more in sorrow than in anger. Myabe Huntsman can do it, but he really can't throw a punch at all very well. Hmmm.  Mittens who oh who can you use?

[Mehmentum]

The last time the Republicans nominated someone who'd never held a political office before was in 1952.

And Herman Cain is no Dwight D. Eisenhower.

I hate this kind of argument.  Such a small sample size really makes such arguments useless. 

3 years ago, we've never elected a black president, before JFK, we'd never elected a catholic.  Republicans always elected the leader in the polls leading up to the primary... until 2008 when Guliani flopped. 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

jmfcst old chap, you do know that nobody has bothered to attack Cain yet don't you? And his little plans (well "plans" gives his little skeletal outlines too much credit; maybe marquee headline jingles would be more accurate at the moment) are ludicrous, and easily shredded.

than do the forum a favor and start a thread examining the 9-9-9 plan...we would all be interested in hearing arguments both for and against it

[Averroës Nix]

jmfcst old chap, you do know that nobody has bothered to attack Cain yet don't you? And his little plans are ludicrous, and easily shredded. But I don't think Mittens will need to go through that exercise.  Maybe he can induce Santorum or one of the attacks dogs to do it for him if that proves necessary.

Generally agree, but Santorum's attacks (feisty, vicious, only reaches a wide audience at debates) probably aren't what will do Cain in. Cain is cool and quick on his feet. He's capable of deflecting Santorum and swiftly and deftly calling him out for being a jerk, probably to an audience ovation.

Ya, Rick can throw a hard punch, but he can't dance like a bee like Mohammed Ali could, and it does take a considerable degree of skill to put away such a truly decent human being, with such a compelling bio, and a lot of personal courage. It needs to be done more in sorrow than in anger. Myabe Huntsman can do it, but he really can't throw a punch at all very well. Hmmm.  Mittens who oh who can you use?

I actually think that Cain's ascendancy is good for Romney. It's against Romneys interests for anyone to attack Cain yet.

Will others try? Maybe. Deflating Cain is a necessity for some of them. But I doubt that any can do it effectively.

Maybe Huntsman could attack from the left on Cain's remarks apropos Muslims, but I doubt that many voters would care, and Cain seems to have successfully walked back on his earlier remarks anyway.

Gingrich might be capable of the sorrowful act. His prickliness is an interesting contrast with Cain's affability. But he's avoided attacking Republicans since the Paul Ryan gaffe.

I'm not sure that Paul has it in him, but he might be able to gain some traction by criticizing Cain for his relatively moderate position on the Fed.

[King]

The last time the Republicans nominated someone who'd never held a political office before was in 1952.

And Herman Cain is no Dwight D. Eisenhower.

The time before that was 1940.

Cain's campaign is very much like Wendell Willkie.

[Torie]

jmfcst old chap, you do know that nobody has bothered to attack Cain yet don't you? And his little plans (well "plans" gives his little skeletal outlines too much credit; maybe marquee headline jingles would be more accurate at the moment) are ludicrous, and easily shredded.

than do the forum a favor and start a thread examining the 9-9-9 plan...we would all be interested in hearing arguments both for and against it

You want me to do Cain's research for him, eh?