MD: Gonzales Research: Obama/Biden leads Romney/McDonnell by 12
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  MD: Gonzales Research: Obama/Biden leads Romney/McDonnell by 12
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Author Topic: MD: Gonzales Research: Obama/Biden leads Romney/McDonnell by 12  (Read 1181 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 05, 2011, 12:56:55 PM »

New Poll: Maryland President by Gonzales Research on 2011-10-01

Summary: D: 50%, R: 38%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

...

We sought to test in Maryland a true general election match-up for the President…so we chose Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee and neighboring Governor Bob McDonnell as his running mate.

Statewide, 50% of Maryland voters say they would vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, 38% say they would vote for the Republican ticket, and 12% are undecided.

...

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in our opinion, is the 2nd most potent political force in this country. When we asked Democrats in Maryland their preference for president if the primary election were held today, we discovered the power of incumbency.

Statewide, 67% of Democrats in the state say they would vote for Barack Obama if he were to face a challenge and 27% say they would vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton, a 40 point margin for the President.

...

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from September 19th through September 27th, 2011. A total of 805 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2011, 01:00:30 PM »

A little too close for MD if you ask me ... Tongue
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2011, 01:02:56 PM »

Ridiculous poll. Why do they poll with VP candidates? McDonnel isn't well know nationally, polling him is a waste of time.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2011, 01:04:22 PM »

Ridiculous poll. Why do they poll with VP candidates? McDonnel isn't well know nationally, polling him is a waste of time.

I think he might actually be very well known in MD, since it's the neighbouring state and in the same media market - DC.

I think they used him, because they thought that he would be the strongest and best VP for Romney.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2011, 01:05:32 PM »

Obama vs. Romney (MD to Obama)

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2011, 01:17:32 PM »

A little too close for MD if you ask me ... Tongue

Indeed. That is a Kerry '04 margin. The poll is a bit odd though.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2011, 01:59:21 PM »

Not bad numbers for Romney at all.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2011, 04:58:18 PM »

FWIW, my recollection is that Gonzales is a pretty good MD pollster.
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redcommander
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2011, 08:34:16 PM »

Not good numbers for Obama, but Maryland is not going to be competitive next year even if there's a landslide. There's not enough support for Republicans from African Americans and Government workers there.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2011, 08:40:03 PM »

Ridiculous poll. Why do they poll with VP candidates? McDonnel isn't well know nationally, polling him is a waste of time.

I think he might actually be very well known in MD, since it's the neighbouring state and in the same media market - DC.

I think they used him, because they thought that he would be the strongest and best VP for Romney.

I Work in an office of about 25 people. If I go in there tomorrow and ask all of them "Who's Bob Mcdonnel?" I'm guessing maybe one other person would know.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2011, 08:40:24 PM »

Not good numbers for Obama, but Maryland is not going to be competitive next year even if there's a landslide. There's not enough support for Republicans from African Americans and Government workers there.

Maybe the Pubbies can win the Western MD CD after all - if Bartlett retires. Smiley
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redcommander
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2011, 08:41:26 PM »

Ridiculous poll. Why do they poll with VP candidates? McDonnel isn't well know nationally, polling him is a waste of time.

I think he might actually be very well known in MD, since it's the neighbouring state and in the same media market - DC.

I think they used him, because they thought that he would be the strongest and best VP for Romney.

I Work in an office of about 25 people. If I go in there tomorrow and ask all of them "Who's Bob Mcdonnel?" I'm guessing maybe one other person would know.

Hasn't he and O'Malley had a public fight over which state is better?
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