NE: Public Policy Polling: Obama not Competitive except in 1st and 2nd

[pbrower2a]

Why is Obama doing better in the 1st than in the 2nd?  Did Nebraska renumber or something?

Redistricting. Romney would have a lead in both districts of eastern Nebraska  without redistricting, but the state legislature apparently loaded some very D-leaning areas into NE-01 and some very R-leaning areas into NE-02.

NE-03 remains the surest vote for any Republican, and NE-02 is still competitive.

The Republican nominee will be in deep trouble if either district of eastern Nebraska is competitive for the President.

[pbrower2a]

You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.

I'm pretty sure nobody expects the Republican candidate to win in a landslide next year. And if anyone does, they're kidding themselves.

Tell that to jmfcst.

anyone with historical knowledge of POTUS reelection bids knows that in a new recession, Obama's numbers are going to fall another 10-15 points over the next 13 months...you can take it to the bank

Republicans lose the next Presidential election and their House majority if they are seen at all culpable in any Double-Dip. All that the GOP offers is permanent suffering of the masses on behalf of people who think that the working man is less than fully human. Trickle-down economics goes out of style when it is shown to be a catastrophic failure. The GOP dream is of people being in hock to loan sharks who exploit every normal desire and every predictable need. 

[pbrower2a]

Obama can't win any of the three CDs in this state.  He'll lose the state by 20% to most any Republican.  Nelson is on the ropes as well, but we all knew that.

Eastern Nebraska (NE-01 and NE-02) is politically more like Iowa than like Wyoming. Central and western Nebraska (NE-03) is politically more like Wyoming than like Iowa. President Obama is going to lose NE-03 by roughly an 80-20 margin unless the Republicans nominate  Charles Manson. But NE-01 and NE-02 are apparently competitive. Together they might be a 50-50 split under the best of reasonable circumstances.  But average two 50-50 splits with one 80-20 split and you get a 60-40 split of the state at large. That is a 20% margin, which is more than by which President Obama lost the state in 2008.

Nebraska is not politically homogeneous. In 2008 (with a different set of districts), NE-01 voted much like Texas, NE-02 voted much like Indiana, and NE-03 voted much like Wyoming.

You are right about Nebraska at large (and I may be exaggerating NE-03), but for the wrong reasons. The Obama campaign seems likely to drop lots of money in the Omaha TV market just to reach western Iowa. That ad coverage will reach Greater Omaha.  Ben Nelson is gaining, and if it seems that President Obama is winning, then he has a clear record that says that he will not be a rubberstamp for the President.