MA: Western New England College: Sen. Brown (R) leads Warren (D) by 5

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Massachusetts Senator by Western New England College on 2011-10-05

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?

54% Approve
30% Disapprove

[Dan the Roman]

Bad weighting

30% D
13% R
52% I

reweight to 37 D 18 R 44I and you get a 45-45 tie.

[Tender Branson]

The current registration in MA is actually 37% DEM, 11% GOP, 52% IND.

http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/ele10/enrollment_count_regdt_10132010.pdf

[redcommander]

They might be factoring in a lower turnout from 2008 into their polling. Good to see Brown is still popular.

[Rowan]

Doesn't "reweighting" the polls never work? I remember a lot of it during the 2008 campaign.

[Kevin]

I'd handicap this as being lean R, given the fact that an incumbent Democratic President will probably be facing a tough reelection next year despite Mass being a solid D state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Romney is the nominee Heller and Brown will surely win.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

If Romney is the nominee Heller and Brown will surely win.

I wouldn't say that. Brown is certainly moderately favored in that situation but it's not out of reach for Warren. Romney may poll better in Massachusetts than any other Republican but he's actually not at all popular in the state. If anybody other than Romney is the nominee I don't think it's very likely at all that Brown wins.

It's a college poll (from a mediocre college), understates the number of Democrats in Massachusetts, and Warren still doesn't have the world's best name recognition. I wouldn't call it suspect but this isn't something that changes my perception of Brown's and Warren's chances.

The current registration in MA is actually 37% DEM, 11% GOP, 52% IND.

This gives us 47-43 Warren over Brown, though reweighting is...not a great measure. I think at this point the best thing to assume is that they're basically tied.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Doesn't "reweighting" the polls never work? I remember a lot of it during the 2008 campaign.

     It's a rather silly notion since it basically repudiates the idea of turnout. If all demographics turned out at the same rate, then reweighting would be valid. Mind you it can correct for a certain amount of error, but to simply change the numbers & say that the poll really says something else than it says is silly.