Which counties in swing states will trend GOP for 2012?

[5280]

For the 2012 election, which counties in the swing states (CO, FL, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA) will trend GOP?  And which ones should be watched closely during the election night that will make or break for either candidate?

[5280]

I'll start the thread...

Was going to say Arapahoe county, however I think that Arapahoe county is gone from the GOP but hard to say. With the new development going on in the southeast part of Aurora it may be a close one to watch.

Weld county is growing rapidly in the 2000s, but has a large agricultural community.  Has alot of Hispanics (Greeley) but not enough to make a big impact.

Adams county has a growing Hispanic community in south Thornton and unicorporated.  Commerce City near Reunion has new development homes that balances out however.

Denver and Boulder county are DEM strongholds, so that's off the table.  Douglas and Elbert county are strong GOP.

Jefferson county may swing GOP, but it's 50/50 with Golden and that city isn't exactly GOP friendly. The southern part of Jeffco is nothing like Golden and votes like Douglas county.

Not sure about Broomfield county...

[TJ in Oregon]

For Ohio, I'd look at Stark, Lake, Hamilton, and Ottawa Counties. Each has voted with the winner of the state the last few cycles.

I also think the margin in Cuyahoga will be something to see becuase the Democrats have traditionally had ~70% of the vote in Ohio's most populous county but we've had a variety of local scandals (it seems like half the county Democratic Party's been arrested) that have hurt the Democrats and they only managed 60% last year against Kasich and 56% against Portman. I'm interested to see if that change sticks.

I'm personally curious to see if the GOP has a shot at winning my home county, Erie, which hasn't happened since I was born. While Obama has been polling pretty well in Ohio overall, his numbers in the northwest have been truly atrocious. I think this could finally be the year.

[Wonkish1]

I'll start the thread...

Was going to say Arapahoe county, however I think that Arapahoe county is gone from the GOP but hard to say. With the new development going on in the southeast part of Aurora it may be a close one to watch.

Weld county is growing rapidly in the 2000s, but has a large agricultural community.  Has alot of Hispanics (Greeley) but not enough to make a big impact.

Adams county has a growing Hispanic community in south Thornton and unicorporated.  Commerce City near Reunion has new development homes that balances out however.

Denver and Boulder county are DEM strongholds, so that's off the table.  Douglas and Elbert county are strong GOP.

Jefferson county may swing GOP, but it's 50/50 with Golden and that city isn't exactly GOP friendly. The southern part of Jeffco is nothing like Golden and votes like Douglas county.

Not sure about Broomfield county...

Jefferson determines who wins the state in most cases. I'm actually secretely predicting that Arapahoe and Adams will swing WAY to the right in this next election. Those exurbs are pissed!! Some of those areas look like the economy just smashed the he!! out of them.

I think the entire state of New Hampshire is going to swing way, way to right in the next election. The registration change in 3 years is pretty staggering. I get the impression that either those entering New Hampshire are Libertarians who wont always vote with their pocket book(as L's usually do) and in 04, 08 swung to the Dems and now have come back home or the Dems that are moving their are quickly converted by the domestic population. Can't tell you which. But New Hampshire I suspect will be quite brutal for the Dems to watch how much it swings against them from years prior.

And I just haven't traveled to NC, FL, OH, and NV enough nor sat down and analyzed the states enough to be able to predict how counties would go. I can give you my summation of WI though!

[Sbane]

Adams will trend Republican. Don't be so sure about Arapahoe trending though. It, and Jefferson will be deciding who wins Colorado. I don't get why you keep thinking it's the exurbs that control how Arapahoe votes. Unless you think the south Aurora suburbs are exurbs. Might just be a difference in definition.

[TeePee4Prez]

Forgot PA as a swing state.

Westmoreland-  The rapid trend will continue.  New Deal Dem die-off.  Their Dem children who didn't "make it" move to MD, VA, and NC and boost Obama's prospects in those states.  Their OTSS children vote Pubbie.  Same old friggin story!

Bucks-  Shows glimmers of hope for Dems then lashes to the right almost instantaneously.  Interestingly, the only Philly suburban county that did not move sharply to the Dems in '08 and voted for Mike Fitzpatrick even with incumbent Pat Murphy not doing so bad.  Might actually be whatever the PA-wide vote is minus 5 to 7.  Don't know if it's blue collar backlash in lower Bucks or wealthy New Yorkers escaping high taxes.

[Wonkish1]

Adams will trend Republican. Don't be so sure about Arapahoe trending though. It, and Jefferson will be deciding who wins Colorado. I don't get why you keep thinking it's the exurbs that control how Arapahoe votes. Unless you think the south Aurora suburbs are exurbs. Might just be a difference in definition.

I know that whole area pretty well. North Centennial and east Littleton are big GOP territory just like Douglas county to the south. That territory will negate much of the Dem territory in South Aurora or Glendale.

But the territory stretching from Heather Gardens/Horseshoe Park down to Foxfield, over to Heritage Eagle Bend and north to Kirkegaard Acres I would define as exurbs. And there are a lot of neighborhoods in that territory that have been severely impacted by the economy.

[old timey villain]

Georgia isn't considered a swing state to many people, but there are demographic changes going on in several of metro Atlanta's biggest counties that could make the state competitive.

Gwinnett- second largest county in Georgia. It's well over 800K people and becoming more diverse. Bush got 66% of the vote in 2004, McCain got 55% in 2008.

Cobb: population well over 700K. It's becoming more diverse, but the biggest change is that many areas of the county that were suburban and now becoming more urban. A lot of young professionals moving into places like smyrna and vinings. Obama lost the county by only 9 points in 2008.

Henry, Douglas, Rockdale, Newton: These exurban counties are gaining a lot of black residents. Newton has gone from solid GOP to solid dem in about 5 years. Henry, Douglas and Newton have gone from solid GOP to swing counties in about the same time.

Dem to GOP

There are several counties in South Georgia, and a few in North Georgia that used to go very strongly for blue dog types but have quickly become GOP strongholds. Clinton won most of the counties in South Georgia, Gore held onto a few, and even Kerry managed to win some, but since Obama they have become lost to the democrats. Check out Mitchell, Telfair and Webster counties.

Some counties in North Georgia, such as Dawson, Lumpkin and Rabun went strongly for certain Democrats. They were Clinton and Zell Miller country. Now they go for the Repubs by at least 70%.

The good news for Democrats is that gains in Metro Atlanta should be able to offset their losses in the more rural areas of the state. In 2012, expect to see a Dem trend in metro Atlanta, especially the Southern suburbs, and a Repub trend elsewhere in the state.

[5280]

Something tells me that Jefferson county will go GOP near the end in 2012 and Arapahoe will be the one to watch overnight. Maybe a possible recount. Broomfield county will be a slim GOP win.

Like I say, this is all speculation as anything can happen.

[Skill and Chance]

Something tells me that Jefferson county will go GOP near the end in 2012 and Arapahoe will be the one to watch overnight. Maybe a possible recount. Broomfield county will be a slim GOP win.

Like I say, this is all speculation as anything can happen.

I think Obama still wins CO by 1-2% if the election were held today.  We are probably at the point where Romney takes VA, though, and NV handily.