Reassessing the keys

[Link]

But yeah, the keys are an interesting game but I trust poll data more than them.

No doubt.  I just revived this thread because I was hoping by seeing some of the absurd utterances of the past certain posters would refrain from making the same mistakes in the future.  The Solyndra comments were mild partisan hackery.  I don't know what to say about the statement that Obama had no major foreign policy successes.  That statement was an indication of frank psychosis.

The economic pronouncement was what I was really concerned about.  All these people who called a double dip recession during the summer and fall have egg on their faces now.  The economy is going to go into recession eventually.  It might be a year from now or it might be five years from now.  No one knows at this point.  If you bet we were going into recession and pulled all your money out of the stock market when this brilliant thread was started at the beginning of October you would have gotten hosed.

[m4567]

Where does this stand now?

[Brittain33]

Prior to reading this thread, I'd never heard of something like "Solyndra" in my life.

Whatever it is about, it's probably not a "major" scandal for that very reason.

Right, it would make a mockery of the idea of a major scandal if all you need to qualify is for Darrell Issa (or a Dem equivalent) to call a pointless investigation.

[Tender Branson]

Where does this stand now?

I'm counting 11 TRUE keys and 2 FALSE keys.

KEY 1 and KEY 6 are the false ones.

[Simfan34]

Outlining the Keys:

•    KEY 1 (FALSE)

•    KEY 2 (TRUE)

•    KEY 3 (TRUE)

•    KEY 4 (TRUE)

•    KEY 5 (TRUE)

•    KEY 6 (FALSE)

•    KEY 7 (TRUE)

•    KEY 8 (TRUE)

•    KEY 9 (TRUE)

•    KEY 10 (TRUE)

•    KEY 11 (TRUE)

•    KEY 12 (FALSE)

•    KEY 13 (TRUE)

As for Key 12, I said false as the liberal base has become disenchanted to a degree and it does not appear that the enthusiasm exists on the left as it did in 2008.

So three. Looking good, but the economy could turn sour and I'd say there's a 30 percent chance we could have "major unrest"

[m4567]

Key 12 is really subjective. In my view, Obama is not as charsmatic as he was in 2008, but he is still charismatic.

[NVGonzalez]

Key 12 is really subjective. In my view, Obama is not as charsmatic as he was in 2008, but he is still charismatic.

See my sig.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Most of the keys are subjective. It's why the keys are always right.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Obama's charisma is a double-edged sword. To many Republicans, that manipulative charisma is the only thing that got Obama into office in the first place. While Obama's charisma may help him capture ethnic minorities and the youth vote, it will definitely bring out the Republican base against him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Obama's charisma is a double-edged sword. To many Republicans, that manipulative charisma is the only thing that got Obama into office in the first place.

Really? I thought it was ACORN.

[Bacon King]

Key 12 is really subjective. In my view, Obama is not as charsmatic as he was in 2008, but he is still charismatic.

Lichtman's methodology is really weird with the charisma keys. In his analysis, the following met the conditions of being "charismatic or national heroes":

Ulysses S. Grant, in 1868 and 1872
James G. Blaine, in 1884
William Jennings Bryan, in 1896 and 1900 (but not 1908)
Teddy Roosevelt, in 1904
FDR, in all four of his elections
Eisenhower, in 1952 and 1956
JFK, in 1960
Reagan, in 1980 and 1984

and that's it.

I thought he had given Obama the "challenger charisma" key in 2008, but I checked just now and he actually didn't. At any rate, if Obama didn't get that key in 2008 he certainly won't get it now.