Hong Kong elections

[jaichind]

Hong Kong Legco Elections today.  Counting in progress.  

Hong Kong used to have 30 seats divided over 5 zones with each zone electing multiple winners plus another 30 to represent various interest groups (mostly set up in a way to elect pro-PRC candidates.)  There are 2 political blocks in HK, each with many parties.  One is Pro-Democracy block and one is Pro-Beijing block.  The vote split between the two is about 6 to 4 as are the seats that are elected over the 5 zones.  The 30 functionary seats will mostly return pro-Beijing block candidates and give the Pro-Beijing block a majority.

This time around there are 5 extra seats added to the 30 seats over 5 zones so it is now 35, plus 5 Party Listy seats.  Turnout is high compared to 2008.  By my own estimation, of the 35 disctrict seats, it should be split 21-14 between the Pro-Democracy block and Pro-Beijing block. It was 19-11 back in 2008.  The relative improvement in the Pro-Beijing block performance is due to better tactical voting than any increase in support.  In fact I suspect the Pro-Beijing block vote share to drop when compared to 2008 due to higher turnout.  The PR list of 5 should be split 3-2.  

One person of interest in HK politics is

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leung_Kwok-hung

He is also called Long Hair Leung who is a Trotskyist/radical socialist leader of a party that belongs to the Pro-Democracy Block.  It is sort of funny that a Marxist Party in HK is in the opposition block to the establistment block backed by the "Marxist" PRC regime.  But this development is quite reasonable given the nature of Hong Kong and Taiwan Province, ROC politics.  In HK supporters of Pro-Beijing block are established organized labor networks, the radical nationalist right, and the business/capitalist class.  The Middle class tend to be for the Pro-Democracy block.    Of course this means that real Maxists/Communists find themselves in the Pro-Democracy block to oppose establishment Pro-Beijing block.  That is fine by me as given my position on the Far Right within the Chinese politics goes, I find myself being for the Pro-Beijing block anyway.

On Taiwan Province you find the same thing.  Who on Taiwan Province are pro-Beijing these days? Why the radical Chinese nationalist far right (like myself) and the capitalist/business class.  The real working class who should be the people that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) should appeal to on Taiwan Province are quite repelled by the PRC.  The CCP and the Taiwan Province capitalist class recently coordinated efforts to help reelect the right wing KMT in ROC elections.  There is an outfit on Taiwan Province formed back in the 1950s called the Chinese Anti-Communist Youth League which is far right youth organization.  In an ironic act around 10 years ago, this organization formed faternal relations with the Chinese Communist Youth League (associated with CCP).  It makes sense, both are far right nationalist organizations therse days.   

[jaichind]

One topic that should help Pro-Democracy Block is this "patriotic eductation" issue.  In a fairly stupid (in my view) move, the PRC regime tried to get the HK establishment to introduce into the HK school system a class that will teach patriotism toward the Chinese nation.  Many parents are concerned that this is a start of a drive to have more political propaganda in the schools at the expense of real income earning education in the real world.  My view is that I am for such a class if it really did teach Chinese patriotism.  Reading what is in this class one finds mostly historical and political half-truths mostly to defend the PRC regime and its monopoly on political power.  What is worse it failed to do that well.  I can come up with better arguments in favor of the PRC regime than what they managed to put into this class.  It tried to tied the PRC with Chinese nationalism and does it in such a stupid way that it seems to do the opposite.  Right before the HK election the government decided to make this optional to try to help the Pro-Beijing block in the election because this issue was becoming a drag on the Pro-Beijing block.  I think the Pro-Beijing block will be lucky to preserve the 6-4 split in vote between the Pro-Democracy Block and Pro-Beijing Block. 

[jaichind]

From the HK paper "The Standard"

------------------------------------------
Pan-democrats and pro-establishment candidates are in a neck and neck race as
initial exit polls showed it might be too close to call in the landmark
Legislative Council elections.
Pan-democrats have a "high to excellent chance" of winning 13 directly elected
seats in the poll that saw more than 1.6 million people cast their votes.
Pro-establishment candidates have a "high to excellent chance" of winning six
seats, according to the University of Hong Kong public opinion program's initial
exit polls.
But there are still a lot of candidates with "equal chances" of claiming seats
- making it difficult to predict the eventual winners.
With each of the 3.2 million eligible voters able to cast two votes for the
first time, some 1,670,381 people had gone to the polls an hour before polls
closed  at 10.30pm.
That equated to a 48.19 percent turnout rate - higher than the 45.2 percent of
1.52 million voters in the 2008 Legco elections.
Public outrage over the government's national education subject  - scrapped at
the last minute by Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying -  could be a factor on
whether the pan- democrats prevail in the election.
Top runners for three of the five new super seats - the District Council
(second) functional constituency - are Democratic Party chairman Albert Ho
Chun-yan, his partymate James To Kun-sun, Association for Democracy and People's
Livelihood Frederick Fung Kin-kee and pro-establishment Democratic Alliance for
the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong's Starry Lee Wai-king, according to the
HKU polls.
Radical democrats are also likely to win at least four seats in their respective
geographical constituencies: People Power's "Mad Dog" Raymond Wong Yuk-man,
League of Social Democrats' "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung, Labour Party's Fernando
Cheung Chiu- hung and new rising People Power star Chan Chi-chuen.
Raymond Wong criticized rival candidates for putting pressure on those yet to
vote
"My competitors were playing dirty to steal my votes," Wong said.
With 35 geographical constituency seats in five regions up for grabs, a total of
216 candidates in 67 candidate lists contested the elections.
Eighteen candidates on seven lists competed for the five super seats.
In the hotly contested Hong Kong Island geographical constituency, Civic Party's
Kenneth Chan Ka-lok is a shoo- in.
In Kowloon West, which has five seats, Democratic Party's Wong Pik- wan, People
Power's Wong Yuk-man, Kowloon West New Dynamic's Priscilla Leung Mei-fun and
Civic Party's Claudia Mo Man-ching are likely winners.
In Kowloon East, which has five seats, all candidates have equal chances.
In New Territories West, with nine seats, former medical-sector lawmaker Kwok
Ka-ki has an "excellent" chance of being elected.
In New Territories East, with nine seats, DAB's Elizabeth Quat is tipped to win,
together with "Long Hair" Leung.
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying presided over the opening of the ballot boxes at
12.30am at the Legco Election Central Counting Station at AsiaWorld- Expo.
Counting is expected to be completed before noon today, with Electoral Affairs
Commission chairman Justice Barnabas Fung Wah declaring the winning candidates.

[jaichind]

The 35 district results are out.  They are shown in Pro-Democracy vs Pro-Beijing format

                                2008 result            2012 result
HK Island                      4-2                       4-3
Kwolong West                3-2                       3-2
Kwolong East                 2-2                       2-3
New Terr West               5-3                       4-5
New Terr East                5-2                       6-3

Total                           19-11                    19-16

Looks like in this part it is a victory for the Pro-Beijing camp.   This is surprising given the patriotic education flap and higher turnout should help the Pro-Democracy camp.  Looking at the results it seems to be a function of poor vote allocation within the Pro-Democracy camp.

[jaichind]

Counting in progress in party list vote.  Most likely the seats will be allocated 3-2 in favor of the Pro-Democracy Block over the Pro-Beijing Block.

So far with about 12% of the vote counted it is 51.6% 44.5% in favor of the Pro-Democracy Block.  Unless this turns around, this is surprising, since traditionally Pro-Democracy vote share is around 60% and Pro-Beijing vote share is 40%.  If this hold one reason for this is that Pro-Democracy block tends to have more dynamic and colorful candidates and the establishment Pro-Beijing Block tends to have boring technicrats and businessmen as candidates.  So when people vote by party for the first time the Pro-Beijing camp show their true strength of their brand.  We will see as results come out.   

[jaichind]

29% of PR vote counted.  Pro-Democracy camp has 51.3% versus Pro-Beijing camp 44.8%.  The 3.9% that an independent slate has really should be counted as Pro-Democracy.  It is led by a women who is a famous media personality.  She is also the niece of a famous Republic of China general and her father fought and died at the hands of the Communists in the KMT-CCP civil war.  Her views and platform fit closer to the Pro-Democracy camp.  I am surprised at how high of the vote the Pro-Beijing camp could rally.  I figured they were good for 40% and that is it.   

[jaichind]

Reading Chinese language newswires, they are saying the 35 district seat allocation is 18-17 in favor of Pro-Democracy vs Pro-Beijing as opposed to what I thought it was (19-16).  I have to go check to see where I goofed.  Wow.. this is a major blow to Pro-Democracy camp.  I am pretty sure it is because of poor vote allocation and coordination across the Pro-Democracy camp versus a very disciplined Pro-Beijing camp.

[jaichind]

In the 35 district vote, the vote share was Pro-Democracy 56.1% vs Pro-Beijing 42.3%.  In 2008 it was 59.5% vs 39.8%, in 2004 it was 61.9% vs 37.3%, in 2000 it was 60.6% vs 32.8%, and in 1998 it was 66.4% vs 31.4%.  The Pro-Beijing block has been gaining ground over the last few elections.  It seems this anti-Patriotic Education movenment has backfired on the Pro-Democracy Block.  Not sure why as all opinion polls showed strong support for this movenment and against the establishment.  Although if ones looks at the vote shares within the Pro-Democracy Camp, the votes are moving toward the radical parties versus the moderates within the camp.   So while Pro-Beijing parties did well, they will face more vocal opposition in the LegCo.

[jaichind]

I checked.  I see where I messed up.  2012 the split is 3-4 and not 4-3 for HK Island.  This makes it 18-17 overall as opposed to 19-16 in terms of Pro-Democracy vs Pro-Beijing

The 35 district results are out.  They are shown in Pro-Democracy vs Pro-Beijing format

                                2008 result            2012 result
HK Island                      4-2                       4-3
Kwolong West                3-2                       3-2
Kwolong East                 2-2                       2-3
New Terr West               5-3                       4-5
New Terr East                5-2                       6-3

Total                           19-11                    19-16

Looks like in this part it is a victory for the Pro-Beijing camp.   This is surprising given the patriotic education flap and higher turnout should help the Pro-Democracy camp.  Looking at the results it seems to be a function of poor vote allocation within the Pro-Democracy camp.

[jaichind]

42% of the PR vote counted.  Pro-Beijing camp still at 44.8%.  If they keep this up, then I would be impressed.  I have no idea why high turnout actually helped the Pro-Beijing parties but it seems to have helped them. 

[jaichind]

Heading to bed now.  With 53% of the PR vote counted, it is 45.1% for the Pro-Beijing parties.

[2952-0-0]

The People's Daily reported these results and actually used the terms "pro democracy" and "pro establishment" in a neutral tone.

[jaichind]

95% of the PR vote counted.  Pro-Democracy parties at 50.8% and Pro-Beijing parties at 45.3%.  As expected the seat split will be 3-2 in favor of Pro-Democracy camp.

[jaichind]

The People's Daily reported these results and actually used the terms "pro democracy" and "pro establishment" in a neutral tone.

That is mostly because the Pro-Democarcy camp is mostly made up of the anti-establishment Democratic Party and various splinters of the Democratic Party plus some radical parties of the extreme left.  So when Pro-Beijing media sources refer to this block as the Pro-Democracy camp they meant it with a capital "D" and not a small "d".

[jaichind]

Final results (in terms of Pro-Democracy vs Pro-Beijing)
                           
                                                2008                                   2012
 
District seat                             19-11                                  18-17
Super seats (PR)                                                                   3-2
Functional seats                        4-26                                    6-24
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                        23-37                                  27-43

The chairpersons of the two largest Pro-Democracy parties (Democratic Party and Civic Party) both resigned due to poor results in the District seats.  The Pro-Democracy Block did managed its minimum goal of getting 24 seats of more so they can cross the 1/3 threshold to veto constitutional changes. 

The Chinese language press correctly called this a victory for the Pro-Beijing Block as they gained in vote share in seats.
The Japanese language press is putting out bizzare headlines like "Pro-democracy camp gains strength in H.K. legislature"  Which is in theory true but that is purely a function the inrease in the overall number of seats in the LegCo.   

[minionofmidas]

Is there a link with detailed results (in a script I can read) somewhere?

The Japanese language press is putting out bizzare headlines like "Pro-democracy camp gains strength in H.K. legislature"  Which is in theory true but that is purely a function the inrease in the overall number of seats in the LegCo.   

Of the increase in the number of non-functional seats, and of their two gains among functional seats. Their total strength increased from 38.4% to 38.6% of the legislature.

[jaichind]

See http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2012/09/181447.html
To be fair if you read the article itself it does make it clear that the Pro-Democracy block suffered a setback but if you read the headline you would get an opposite impression.

Is there a link with detailed results (in a script I can read) somewhere?

The Japanese language press is putting out bizzare headlines like "Pro-democracy camp gains strength in H.K. legislature"  Which is in theory true but that is purely a function the inrease in the overall number of seats in the LegCo.  

Of the increase in the number of non-functional seats, and of their two gains among functional seats. Their total strength increased from 38.4% to 38.6% of the legislature.

[jaichind]

You are right about the numbers of course.  Knowing what I know I cannot see this as anything but a sharp defeat of the Pro-Democracy Block.  The Pro-Democracy Block always rejected the functional seats as nothing but an institutional roadblock put in by PRC to stop them from getting a majority.  They always measured themselves on the District seats/vote.   So it is ironic that they did poorly by their own standards last night but they did better in the section of the election they reject (the funtional seats.)

Of the increase in the number of non-functional seats, and of their two gains among functional seats. Their total strength increased from 38.4% to 38.6% of the legislature.