Mexico 2012

[LastVoter]

One of the two precincts on my block (my wife's) has reported. Reliably PANista, even at the dark hour

Total number registered 467 voters
Turnout 358 (76.65%)
JVM 148
EPN 110 votes
AMLO 92 votes
Quadri 6 votes
write-in 0 vote
invalid 2 votes

actually, have to update: somehow the results changed in a few minutes, must have been an erroneous entry. still panista, but less resoundingly so.

2nd update: I originally confused the presidential results w/ the senate, originally, PANd did get over 50% for the senate, but JVM is substantially behind her party even here.

So it's  a gated community?

[ag]

One of the two precincts on my block (my wife's) has reported. Reliably PANista, even at the dark hour

Total number registered 467 voters
Turnout 358 (76.65%)
JVM 148
EPN 110 votes
AMLO 92 votes
Quadri 6 votes
write-in 0 vote
invalid 2 votes

actually, have to update: somehow the results changed in a few minutes, must have been an erroneous entry. still panista, but less resoundingly so.

2nd update: I originally confused the presidential results w/ the senate, originally, PANd did get over 50% for the senate, but JVM is substantially behind her party even here.

So it's  a gated community?

No, just a few blocks in Mexico City. Not gated, no traffic restrictions, regular traffic jams all over. A mixture of private houses and taller buildings w/ apartments. Most definitely not poor, of course - upper middle class by Mexican standards (would have been middle class in the US).

[ag]

Well, pity there is no gubernatorial election today in Nuevo Leon: there could have been a chance.

W/ almost everything reporting, so far, PAN gets 15 districts in the state congress, w/ 10 going to PRI and 1 to PANAL (there are also PR seats, so I am not certain if they get a majority, but they may). PAN gets 52% for Monterrey mayor (against 34% for PRI) and over 60% for the mayors in the populous suburbs of San Nicolas and San Pedro. At least some part of the country where the right is reviving

[ag]

Well, everyone has accepted the result, it seems - except for one person. AMLO says, that he will "wait for the final count".

[NVGonzalez]

Well, everyone has accepted the result, it seems - except for one person. AMLO says, that he will "wait for the final count".

Of course.

[ag]

Well, everyone has accepted the result, it seems - except for one person. AMLO says, that he will "wait for the final count".

Of course.

He meant, till the official count on Wednesday.

[ThePrezMex]

Looking at the results so far, I think it is fair to say that Peña Nieto has won:
Chihuahua, Durango, Michoacan, Sinaloa and Zacatecas.
López Obrador has won Federal District and his home state of Tabasco.
Josefina Vazquez Mota has won Nuevo Leon.
And we would be able to call very soon Oaxaca for Lopez Obrador and Tamaulipas for Josefina.

Given that we are in the US Election Atlas, I always like to make the imaginary exercise of what would happen if Mexico also had the US electoral college system. In Mexico's case, the number of federal districts is 300, so the winner would need 151 electoral votes.
Given the states that I just called, Peña Nieto would have 37ev, Lopez Obrador 33 and Josefina 12.

If the current trend in each of the other states hold, Peña Nieto would end up with 163ev, Lopez Obrador 103, and Josefina 34.

[ag]

Don't forget the Senate And in Mexico each state has 3 senators, so you should add another 96 electoral votes

[ThePrezMex]

Don't forget the Senate And in Mexico each state has 3 senators, so you should add another 96 electoral votes

You are correct! So the electoral college would be 396 instead of 300, with the majority being 199.

Peña Nieto would have right no2 52, López obrador 39, Josefina 15
And with the current trend, Peña Nieto would win with 220ev, López Obrador 133ev and Josefina 43ev.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What are the trends in each state anyway?

[ThePrezMex]

What are the trends in each state anyway?

Just based on the PREP results. You can look at them graphically on the Google election page, I'll post the link again here.
It is quite fun to click on each state and see the results by district and the % of votes in (you can play you are a Mexican John King in your imagination).
I just saw that it is almost sure Josefina Vazquez Mota is going to win Tamaulipas but that Guanajuato is still too close to call for example, given where the results are coming in (the districts in which Josefina is winning are almost 60% reported (except one) while the Peña Nieto ones are in around 45% reported).

http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm aware of the...unique situation in Chiapas (if it is related to that; if it's not feel free to correct me) but what makes Yucatan so different to the rest of southern Mexico? I believe it voted for Calderon as well.

[NVGonzalez]

Don't forget the Senate And in Mexico each state has 3 senators, so you should add another 96 electoral votes

You are correct! So the electoral college would be 396 instead of 300, with the majority being 199.

Peña Nieto would have right no2 52, López obrador 39, Josefina 15
And with the current trend, Peña Nieto would win with 220ev, López Obrador 133ev and Josefina 43ev.

I will say election nights in Mexico would be funner with EV's and the American way. It was just so boring to see the race get called like that.

[Velasco]

Well, everyone has accepted the result, it seems - except for one person. AMLO says, that he will "wait for the final count".

Of course.

He meant, till the official count on Wednesday.

It's a waste of time, isn't it? The margin between EPN and AMLO is lower than expected but it will grow anyway. Now the PREP figures say that EPN has 36.8% of vote and AMLO 33.2%.

It's morning here. I took a look at some gubernatorials. Chiapas seems to be a PRI-PVEM-NA landslide (PRD is polling only 17.1%). In Jalisco (PREP 85.16%) PRI is ahead with 39.5% followed by MC (32.65%) and PAN (20.5%). In Morelos the PRD lead alliance is ahead with 43.2% followed by PRI and allies with 35.3% and by PAN with only a 14.6%. In Tabasco PRD and allies seem to be slightly ahead of PRI. No surprises in DF.

[Niemeyerite]

At least, Mancera won by a landslide, as expected. He may be a good mayor... Maybe he should run for President in 2017.

[jaichind]

With 79% counted, and after I normalize againist the null votes it is
PRI      38.23
PRD     33.42
PAN     25.98
PANAL   2.43

I had predicted
PRI      38
PRD     30
PAN     29
PANAL   3


In the Senete and House votes after I normalize out the null votes it is so far

Senete
PRI            38.30
PRD           29.61
PAN           27.91
PANAL         4.01

House
PRI           39.17
PRD          29.08
PAN          27.23
PANAL        4.38

ALMO for sure ran ahead of PRD and PRI got less than polls had expected.  It seems that this is a result of anti-PRI tactical voting from PAN and independent/PANAL voters which benfited ALMO.  At the start of the campaign this was not expected as the thinking was a pro-PRI anti-ALMO tactical voting would take place.  This did seem to take place but it also seems that anti-PRI tactical voting took place as well.  Both trends seems to have hurt PAN.  I took this anti-PRI tactical voting into account in my prediction but I seems to have unestimated it.  I was right in predicting 4% for PANAL in the Prez vote in the sense that the PANAL base does seem to be 4% (looking at the Senete and House votes) but I failed to take into account correctly tactical voting by PANAL supporters.

[Peeperkorn]

It seems that this is a result of anti-PRI tactical voting from PAN and independent voters which benfited ALMO. 

tactical voting?

Also PAN voting AMLO....nope.

[jaichind]

I agree this does not fit conventional thinking, but how else can we explain AMLO running ahead of PRD vote for Senate and House.  It had to come from somewhere.  One could argue that PRI voters voted for AMLO but why would they do that when everyone knows PRI will win (unlike in 2006)

It seems that this is a result of anti-PRI tactical voting from PAN and independent voters which benfited ALMO. 

tactical voting?

Also PAN voting AMLO....nope.

[ag]

Also PAN voting AMLO....nope.

Actually, to a degree feasible. PAN and PRD always tactically vote for each other. Of course, AMLO being AMLO suppresses that: Ebrard could have one that way.

[minionofmidas]

There are PRD and PAN voters who would never under any circumstances vote for the other, but there are also tactical anti-PRI voters who are perfectly ready to. Both parties' bases are broad, after all, and not everybody within them is alike.

[Velasco]

It's undeniable that AMLO performed well and he's a pretty good campaigner but looking at the 5% margin I wonder how Ebrard performance would have been.

It's a bit complex trying to guess how went the vote transfers. It's a too big country and there are too many local factors in Legislatives and Gubernatorials.

[jaichind]

Looking at the vote share of the PRI-Green alliance in the Congress vote and knowing the 42% rule it is unlikely PRI-Green alliance will get a majority in the Congress let alone PRI alone.  Also PRI-Green alliance underperformed relative to 2009 this time around for the Congress.  I would say overall, PRI has underperformed polls in this election.

[Hash]

Weird regional results. Anybody want to take a stab at some explanations?

Tamaulipas for JVM, along with Nuevo Leon (fair enough), Guanajuato (well, obviously) and Veracruz... what's up with the first and last state on this list?

Priista landslide in Zacatecas: isn't this a PRD stronghold normally?

Baja California seems sucky both for PAN (in the north) and PRD (in the south)

On the other, aren't those some pretty strong PRD performances in Tabasco (even though Madrazo probably had a boost there in 2006), Oaxaca and Puebla?

[jaichind]

It seems like as the vote count continues, ALMO is losing vote share and Nieto is gaining vote share.

[ThePrezMex]

Weird regional results. Anybody want to take a stab at some explanations?

Tamaulipas for JVM, along with Nuevo Leon (fair enough), Guanajuato (well, obviously) and Veracruz... what's up with the first and last state on this list?

Priista landslide in Zacatecas: isn't this a PRD stronghold normally?

Baja California seems sucky both for PAN (in the north) and PRD (in the south)

On the other, aren't those some pretty strong PRD performances in Tabasco (even though Madrazo probably had a boost there in 2006), Oaxaca and Puebla?

Yes, there are some interesting results. My guess is that voters in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon have punished very incompetent PRI governors (in terms of their fight against organized crime); the last time I saw polls there, President Calderon is very popular and there's a high approval rating for the presence of the military in public safety tasks there. In the local elections in Nuevo Leon, PAN is also getting very good results (even though PAN has its share of corruption scandals there). Peña Nieto is getting a very thin victory in Coahuila, another of PRI strongholds, but with a very prominently corrupt former governor.

It has been a big surprise for me that PAN did so badly in Baja California, a state that as AG mentioned, has been governed by PAN since 1989. Vazquez Mota is running third there!

Zacatecas used to be one of PRI's strongest states until they lost the governorship in 1998 (PRI still won Zacatecas in 2000 over Vicente Fox). But PRI recovered the governorship from PRD in 2010 and seems like the state might be going back to PRI.

Yes, since Madrazo was also from Tabasco, he got around 38% in 2006 (compared to Peña Nieto's 31% with 84% votes counted). And while Lopez Obrador is doing better than in 2006, he's not much above.. he got about 58% in 2006 and is scoring 60% right now.