Mexico 2012

[Niemeyerite]

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.

They voted for the crazy man, EPN.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[CatoMinor]

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.

They voted for the crazy man, EPN.

No, he is the stupid man, AMLO is the crazy man.

[Velasco]

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.

They voted for the crazy man, EPN.

No, he is the stupid man, AMLO is the crazy man.

All Romans are crazy, the Gaul village is at Selva Lacandona (Chiapas). This time it seems that Chiapanecos got tired of PRD and went again into the arms of PRI (and PVEM). As far as I know PRI was very strong in Chiapas historically.

[RogueBeaver]

EPN isn't crazy, just thicker than a slab of concrete.

[ag]

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.

They voted for the crazy man, EPN.

There are many things you can say about Pena Nieto, but "crazy" isn't one of them.

[ag]

Is this PREP result the final? I was waiting until the 100% was reported.

PREP results are never final, nor do they ever reach 100%.  The official count starts on Wednesday and, in theory, can take up to till the end of the week (though they used to finish the same day, but it seems they will be doin an unusually detailed recount).

PREP is not the legal count. The way it works, poll workers send  one copy of the protocol to be scanned into PREP, while the official copy is sealed w/ the ballot box. As there are so many small polling booths (over 143,000) w/ poll workers doing it just once, when called up fo this duty by lottery, sometimes all sorts of mistakes happen. The most common mistake is to seal the PREP copy of the protocol w/ the ballot box as well - in which case, obviously, it doesn't get into PREP. On the official count date the sealed packages are opened, and the official protocols are counted. In case of any inconsistencies (and now also sometimes if there are none) they also recount the ballots.

[ag]

I can't understand AMLO's strategy. It's pretty obvious that PRI guys are not pure and crystal water, you have all that media scandals, presumed payments and so on, but putting all the electoral process under challenge when 690 international observers have reported nothing...

It is the faith-based strategy. He believes that everybody, but a small minority of swindlers and scoundrels, shares the self-evident view of himself as the Messiah. So, when the results don't reflect that, he goes on the crusade against the results.

[ag]

Anyone else noticed the rather striking similarity in parts of Mexico between support for EPN and areas controlled by those charmers in the Sinaloa Cartel?

No. Can't see that even after you point it out.

[Hash]

Did they publish the composition of Congress, including the PR seats in both chambers? Or is there a simple way to guess them? I don't want to delay my blog post for too long because they're lagers.

Re: Chiapas. It's amusing how the PVEM's victory in the gubernatorial race had an effect on other races: 19.2% for Ken Barbie on the PVEM line, 3 house seats for PVEM candidates, 24.8% for the PVEM line on the PRI-PVEM senatorial slate. Was the PVEM strong in Chiapas beforehand or is this a new development? The PVEM has always fascinated me as a party.

[ThePrezMex]

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.

They voted for the crazy man, EPN.

No, he is the stupid man, AMLO is the crazy man.

All Romans are crazy, the Gaul village is at Selva Lacandona (Chiapas). This time it seems that Chiapanecos got tired of PRD and went again into the arms of PRI (and PVEM). As far as I know PRI was very strong in Chiapas historically.

Thanks for the excellent maps!! (and thanks to Shibboleth as well).

Veracruz and Puebla are indeed extremely close, and as you pointed out, they could flip once the official numbers come in and recounts done. If we had an electoral vote system this would be getting all the attention, alas is not relevant in Mexico (although it certainly is for us Atlasians).

Looks like PRI was able to win back two states that were traditionally very strong for them, Zacatecas and Chiapas, and that had been in hands of PRD for two consecutive elections (PRI won the governorship of Zacatecas back in 2010 and now they won the presidential vote) - but they have also lost two of other strongholds: Oaxaca and Puebla (both governorships in 2010 to an alliance of PAN-PRD (the nominal governor of Oaxaca is from PRD and Puebla from PAN) and now losing the presidential election. So people just exercising their power to vote out bad governments.

BTW, having read and enjoyed Asterix the Gaul since I was a pretty young, I object your characterization of the Selva Lacandona as where the Gaul Village is!!!  Although, thinking more about it, I might be considered more like a Roman... :/ .. hmm.. my real name in any case would make me appear in at least a couple of the book titles representing Rome, ha.

[ag]

Each newspaper I've seen today has had different composition for the House and for the Senate. One thing seems to be certain, though: no PRI majority in either, not even w/ PVEM included. They seem to be losing about 20 seats in the House as compared to their 2009 results. Even if PANAL decides to support them, it seems there wouldn't be a majority in either chamber. Obviously, big gains in the Senate - but that had been elected in 2006. PRD/PT/MC alliance will be the second-largest group in the House, though each party's faction separately will be smaller than that of PAN. PAN will stay the second-largest party in the Senate. But exact numbers will have to wait the official count in any case. In Baja California, for instance, in the race for the second place in the Senate election, which will determine the identity of the third senator from the state, the difference between PRD and PRI is something like 200 votes.

[ag]

Looks like the official count won't be there till Thursday, at least (till Saturday for the Congress). The new law says that in ever district where the difference between top two candidates is under 1% there must be a total, ballot by ballot recount. There are 19 such districts in the presidential race and 12 each in the House and Senate. I can see why do the recount in the House, by the rest beats me. If anything, I'd expect more irregularities in districts w/ bigger difference, not the smaller difference: these are bound to be the ones w/ minimal presence of the loosers.

Lopez Obrador, obviously, wants the full recount: 300 districts, 143,000 precincts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone else noticed the rather striking similarity in parts of Mexico between support for EPN and areas controlled by those charmers in the Sinaloa Cartel?

No. Can't see that even after you point it out.

Post is around 95% trolling

[Velasco]

Wow, another royal family in Chiapas! Manuel Velasco Coello, the Governor elected is engaged with Anahí, a well known telenovela actress:





This "green phenomenon" in Chiapas seems to be very interesting, I'm clueless about it but in the 2006 Gubernatorial PAN and PANAL endorsed the PRI-PVEM candidate against PRD. Definitely the Gaul village is not at Tuxtla Gutiérrez.

More soap opera, EPN and family:



By the way thanks for the explanation about the counting system, ag. I realized later that PREP was ended with 98.95% reported.

Edit: I was in a hurry when I posted this morning (GMT). Velasco and Anahí are not exactly engaged: they have a romance according to Proceso.

[RodPresident]

If EPN doesn't fail, will Velasco Coello stand for Presidency in 2018 as a strong candidate? Ebrard will have a hard time to win. In politics, 6 years are an eternity!

[ag]

They've started the count. IFE has left it up to the district councils (300 of those) to decide if to do a full recount or not. It will take a while. For the moment, 5.1% of the polls have been formally counted (7,301 of them out of 143,115 reporting; 3 were never installed, 14 of the installed are missing). The result for the moment is:

EPN 40.98%
AMLO 28.07%
JVM 26.34%
Quadri 2.15%

But it's only 1.35 mln. votes so far - many of the officially counted booths are tiny.

[ag]

15% of precincts reporting (just over 4.5 mln. votes - less then 10% of what it is going to be)

EPN 39.89%
AMLO 29.30%
JVM 26.21%
Quadri 2.15%

So far, EPN advantage over AMLO is just under half a million votes.

[ag]

If EPN doesn't fail, will Velasco Coello stand for Presidency in 2018 as a strong candidate? Ebrard will have a hard time to win. In politics, 6 years are an eternity!

Chiapas governor? The nation's poorest state, zero visibility nationwide and huge potential for corruption scandals. Successful candidates come from Mexico City and vicinity. For somebody like that, the route to nomination lies through the federal cabinet.

6 years is a long time. But besides Ebrard we'll also have Mancera

[ag]

W/ 30% of precincts (43,555 of them) tabulated (around 8.9 million votes) it is
EPN 39.20%
AMLO 30.20%
JVM 25.94%
Quadri 2.21%

But they will be doing a full recount of 78,000 precincts - over 54%. So, this is not going to be fast.

[Velasco]

Reuploaded the map of the Preliminary Results. An error occured and the Chiapas-Veracruz border appeared with a strange shape. What a coincidence. Sorry for the inconveniences.

My "hero" of the moment, Manuel Velasco Coello, has an entry in Wikipedia (only Spanish version) but its content is mainly propagandistic. A few data: Born in 1980 (aged 32) in Tuxtla Gutiérrez, the Chiapas State Capital. Grandson of a neurologist. Local backbencher in 2001 and Federal MP in 2003. Coordinator of PVEM´s parliamentary group. Elected Senator for Chiapas in 2006 under the banner of PRI-PVEM alliance. His nickname is "Güero" and has been elected Governor of Chiapas with 68% of the vote (50% of margin over PRD´s candidate!). Isn't he a prodigy?

[Hash]

I think Velasco's grandfather was a PRI governor in the state in the 1970s.

[Velasco]

Yes, you are right. The neurologist, Manuel Velasco Suárez, was Governor of Chiapas between 1970 and 1976. Thank you.

Re-uploaded too AMLO and Calderón maps for 2006. Maybe, I'll post them later for comparative purposes.

[Velasco]

#Yosoy132 does not recognise the election result.  A spokesperson read a memorandum at UNAM University in Mexico City. Their allegations are that the electoral process was "stuffy in origin" (maybe the adjective does not fit, the original word is "viciado"). They alleged state violence, vote buying, rigged polls and media manipulation.  Irregularities occured not only in the voting day or in the electoral campaign "it was a process grouted years ago by the factic powers, national and foreign, violating national sovereignty, that pretends to guarantee neoliberal structural reforms" in labour, energy, security and fiscality. #Yosoy132 rejects "the process of imposition" of Peña Nieto as President of Mexico.

Link (in Spanish)

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/05/mexico/1341464347_979388.html

The Guardian has also some information: "Claims of dirty tricks cast shadow over Peña Nieto's Victory"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/04/mexico-elections-shadow-pena-nieto

They detail some of the allegations, per example:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is going to be entertaining.



 

[ag]

some of the yosoy132 groups have long been uncomfortable with this stuff. It will be a smaller radical group, keeping the name, going nuts. If they stick to manifestations, it's ok: somebody is always demonstrating here. Hopefully, they don't gi violent.