Mexico 2012

[jaichind]

When does the polls close in Michoacan ? 

[jaichind]

I think polls has closed

BTW.  I found this

http://revistaemet.com/nota/mendoza-blanco-y-asociados-da-como-ganador-a-silvano-aureoles/5857

Which, if my spanish is correct, indicates that latest poll taken recently, has PAN 31, PRI 34, and PRD 35.  We will have the real results soon enough

[jaichind]

What is the partisan makeup of the outgoing state congress in Michoacan ?

[jaichind]

Thanks a lot.

So for state congressional elections, Mexico has something like that that 42% rule at the federal level?

3-way split, really. The FPTP seats last time went 11 PRD, 9 PAN, 4 PRI, but PR made it a lot more even.

[jaichind]

It seems that at La Piedad, where the mayor, Ricardo Guzman, was gunned down a week or so ago, the PAN won with 54% of the vote.  Ricardo Guzman was a member of PAN

 

[jaichind]

At this stage it is

PRI  35.33
PAN 32.71
PRD 28.90

At the state congress it terms of vote share it seems to be
PRI   35.33
PAN  27.79
PRD  29.56
PC      2.38

Seat breakdown for FPTP are
PRI     11
PRD      8
PAN      5

Since PC ran with PRD for the gov. race one can see that PRD ran below its vote share for the gov race and PAN ran above.  So running Calderón Hinojosa helped the PAN but I guess it is not enough as it now seems the PRI will win.

[jaichind]

I did not know that.  My understanding was that at the federal level they put in the 42% rule in the aftermath of the 1988 election where PRI gave up being able to use the FPTP system to get a majority over a divided opposition in return for the opposition parties accepting the 1988 results.  I did not know that his understanding also led to similar changes at the state legislative election system as well.  How interesting.

Each state has its own constitution, but they are similar. In case of Michoacan there 24 FPTP districts and 16 PR. The rules for allocating the PR are arcane and, usually, things wind up in the electoral tribunal.

[jaichind]

For muni elections in Michoacan, I just noticed that PRI and PAN actually ran as allies in several cities. It just shows you how strong the PRD is in some of the cities that deadly historical national rivals could make alliances just to stop the PRD.

[jaichind]

If it is AMLO that will be the only candidate of the Left, based on what ag has said before, does it not look like that some PAN supporters will vote tactically PRI to block AMLO.  If so does this not further erodes the chances of a PAN victory and makes a PRI victory more certain?

[jaichind]

Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones yesterday announced that he would not seek to be the PRI presidential candidate in next year's election.  Which means that Pena Nieto, now is unopposed in PRI .  The other main opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) last week chose defeated 2006 candidate, AMLO, as its nominee, meaning that the ruling PAN is the only major party yet to select its candidate. 

From a game theory point of view Nieto should run a center right 1990s PRI type campaign (like de la Madrid or Salinas) rather than a leftist populist 1970s PRI campaign.  If he runs to the right that will most likely mean that AMLO will gain space on the center left making him the main challanger to Nieto.  Once that happens there will be tactical voting by PAN voters to block AMLO given the bitter memories of 2006.  If Nieto ran a center left campaign that will squeeze the political space of AMLO and give an opening to whoever is the PAN candidate.  PRD voters in this case will not necessary vote for Nieto to block PAN.  The PRD would rather PAN wins again because PRI losing for the third time might split the party and cause a realigment on the left to the benifit of PRD.  Given the lay of the political land, I suspect Nieto would run a technicratic market oriented campaign.

[jaichind]

What is La Maestra?
The teacher union?

Not "what", but "who". "La Maestra" is Elba Esther Gordillo, who is, as you guessed, the head of the teacher's union (SNTE).

And you dislike her because?

I am not a fan of her because of her record a teachers union boss.  Mexican schools are a failure and the teacher's unions are one of the main causes of this.  She also has a record of being a political mercenary given how she has jumped from being in the PRI to being against it to being for it and so on.  This goes for the various factions within the PRI where she flip-flops between different power brokers. Her relationship with the PAN is a similar record of flip flops.

[jaichind]

     May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential candidate
Enrique Pena Nieto saw his lead narrow in the latest opinion
poll after thousands of students marched against him.
     Support for Pena Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary
Party slid to 35.6 percent in the survey from 37.9 percent the
week earlier, polling company Consulta Mitofsky said today. His
lead over the nearest rival has narrowed to 13.9 points from
17.5 earlier this month.
     Students from both public and private universities have
held protests in major cities since May 17, accusing much of the
media of a bias in favor of the PRI. Some of the protesters have
demonstrated against Pena Nieto, saying they do not want a
return of the party that rule for 71 years until 2000 and which
has been accused of corruption. More marches are scheduled for
tomorrow.
     “These marches will influence the election,” said Javier
Oliva, a political analyst at Mexico’s National Autonomous
University. “It might not cause Pena Nieto to lose, but it puts
the importance of polices for young people such as education and
access to technology on the table.”
     Support for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the
Democratic Revolution rose to 21.7 percent in the latest poll
from 20.5 percent last week, Mexico City-based Mitofsky said.
Josefina Vazquez Mota of the leading National Action Party saw
her support little changed at 20.4 percent, from 20.1 percent in
the previous survey.
     The survey of 1,000 people was taken May 25 to May 27. It
had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

[jaichind]

How I see the campaign so far


A relatively predictable campaign received a jolt in mid-May when
the strong favourite, Enrique Pena Nieto, faced a student
demonstration while visiting a private university in Mexico City,
where most of those enrolled come from wealthy families.  Pena
Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reaction was to
describe the crowd as left-wing militants that did not belong
there.  A YouTube video showed 131 students displaying their
university identification to rebut this.  A support group from
private and public universities quickly developed into a strong
anti-Pena Nieto and PRI movement.
 
The movement changed campaign dynamics, significantly boosting
Lopez Obrador (popularly known as AMLO), of the centre-left Party
of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and other small parties.  AMLO
had been unable to overcome the image of bad loser in the 2006
election.  Until a few weeks ago, he seemed destined to finish
third, with Pena Nieto winning easily.

However, the student movement discourse echoed several claims AMLO
has made, notably the powerful political influence of
telecommunications giant, Televisa, and its close relationship
with the PRI. The movement quickly
evolved into being openly anti-Pena Nieto and surreptitiously
pro-AMLO.  It is plausible that many that had intended to vote for
AMLO were coy about it given his 2006 behaviour, and now state
their preference openly.
 
On the other hand, Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling
centre-right National Action Party (PAN) has conducted a
lacklustre campaign.  She failed to distance herself from
Calderon, increasingly unpopular due to the government offensive
against drug cartels.  Opinion
polls showed AMLO moving into second place, with Vazquez Mota
close behind and Pena Nieto losing some support.
 
This is among the most polarised presidential campaigns since
Mexico became a fully-fledged democracy in the 1990s:
--    In 1994 it was a contest between the PRI and PAN, with the
      PRD nominee behind throughout the campaign and getting a
      relatively small share of the vote.  The PRI retained the
      presidency.
 
--    In 2000 it was similar, but with the PAN winning the
      presidency.
 
--    The 2006 election saw a deeply unpopular PRI candidate, with
      the election again a two-horse race.  While Calderon won
      narrowly, the PRI vote plunged to a historic low.
 
Now, it is clearly a three-horse contest.  While he has lost some
terrain, Pena Nieto retains a commanding lead, which most recent
opinion polls put at 12-14 percentage points.  Unless
extraordinary events change campaign dynamics, the PRI should win
the presidency, though more narrowly than seemed likely a few
months ago.  Therefore, the possibility has increased of another
fragmented Congress, and continued political deadlock.

At least two factors recently have arrested AMLO's rise:
 
--    He started behaving like the frontrunner, claiming that
      there is a serious possibility of fraud against him.  He has
      refused to state that he would recognise defeat.  During the
      second and last presidential debate, on June 10, he said
      that there would be "no revenge" if he won -- reminding
      voters of past aggressive tactics.
 
--    Vazquez Mota was aggressive in the debate, particularly
      against AMLO, while Pena Nieto mostly ignored his opponents
      and presented himself as an efficient leader.
 
Therefore, Vazquez Mota has regained the initiative somewhat, with
expectations among supporters that she may retake second place in
opinion polls, while Pena Nieto performed better than expected.
The fourth candidate, Gabriel Quadri (of the ideologically
undefined New Alliance Party, PANAL) performed well, as expected
(he was the clear winner in the first debate), and continued
pushing a liberal economic and social agenda.  However, PANAL is
small and controlled by the leader of the National Union of
Teachers (SNTE), Elba Esther Gordillo.  Quadri at most should
obtain 5% of the vote.  Opinion polls after the debate show
Vazquez Mota and Pena Nieto increasing support marginally, AMLO
and Quadri stagnating and those undecided falling.
 
By July 1 neither AMLO nor Vazquez Mota is likely to be able to
claim credibly that they are clearly in second place and could
defeat Pena Nieto -- thus appealing to those considering voting
tactically against the PRI.
 
The 2000 and 2006 elections showed significant evidence of
tactical voting:
 
--    In 2006 one in five people that voted for PRI candidates for
      the Chamber of Deputies voted PRD or PAN for president, with
      most backing the former.  SNTE members, instructed by
      Gordillo, voted PAN for president and PANAL for Congress.
 
--    As a result, Lopez Obrador got nearly six percentage points
      of the national vote above PRD congressional candidates.
      Calderon's difference was 2.3 points, enough to secure the
      presidency -- increasing Gordillo's political weight  
 
--    In 2000 the anti-PRI vote went to the PAN's Vicente Fox, who
      was 4.3 percentage points above the party's candidates for
      federal deputies.  One of ten people that voted for PRD
      congressional candidates supported Fox instead of the
      party's presidential nominee, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas.
 
With AMLO and Vazquez Mota fighting strongly for second place,
tactical voting should not be as high as in 2006 or 2000.  Most
tactical voting should favour AMLO.  However, many PAN members are
as unenthusiastic about voting for the PRD as voters from that
party were about the PAN in 2000.  A tactical vote of 2-3
percentage points favouring AMLO seems conceivable -- not enough
to surmount the current Pena Nieto advantage.  Moreover, Pena
Nieto actively may be courting Gordillo so that SNTE members vote
tactically, boosting the PRI.  Therefore, a Pena Nieto victory
with a clean margin of 5-10 percentage points over AMLO seems
plausible, with Vazquez Mota a close third.

Prediction
PRI 38%
PRD 30%
PAN 29%
PANAL 3%

[jaichind]

     June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico presidential front-runner
Enrique Pena Nieto led his nearest rival by 13 percentage points
in the last poll by Consulta Mitofsky before the election.
     Pena Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party had
38.4 percent support, from 37.6 percent last week, while Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party had 25.4
percent backing from 24.3 percent, Mitofsky said in a report
released today. Support for Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling
National Action Party was unchanged at 20.8 percent.
     Mexicans will cast their ballots on July 1 and the final
polls must be published by June 27, when campaigns officially
close. Lopez Obrador had begun to close the gap with the front-
runner earlier this month, although the latest polls show Pena
Nieto has maintained his lead of more than 10 percentage points.
     “There’s no question Pena Nieto is going to win,” said
Federico Estevez, a political science professor at the
Autonomous Institute of Technology of Mexico. “The fight is not
over the outcome, but over the amount of the lead.”
     A sampling of six other polls shows Pena Nieto leads by
about 15 percentage points, although undecided votes are not
included in the count, according to the Mexico City-based
Mitofsky.
     Lopez Obrador said in an interview with Radio Formula today
that a poll his campaign conducted giving him a lead of 3
percentage points “is going to widen.” He said other polls
showing Pena Nieto with a lead are “political propaganda.”



                     Congressional Majority



     Mitofsky calculated that the PRI would win a majority in
both houses of Congress, even under the worst-case scenario,
although it shows respondents’ backing for the PRI in Congress
is at its lowest since the campaign began, at 44.2 percent.
     The party needs 42.2 percent support to gain a majority,
according to Mitofsky. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1
percent.
     The Mitofsky survey shows that 30 percent of voters have
“a lot” of trust in the Federal Electoral Institute’s ability
to oversee the election, less than the 44 percent ahead of the
previous election in 2006.
     Mitofsky interviewed 1,000 registered voters from June 22
to June 24, and 13.6 percent of them did not specify support for
a candidate.

[jaichind]

Outrage in Mexico as 'traitor' Fox backs PRI candidate

     June 27 (AFP) -- For Julio Rodriguez, who grills meat at a
busy sidewalk lunch stall, Mexican ex-president Vicente Fox is
guilty of "treason, towards his party and towards the nation."
     Fox, a member of the conservative National Action Party
(PAN), is calling on Mexicans to unite behind Enrique Pena
Nieto, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate
and front-runner in the July 1 presidential election.
     A lanky and affable rancher who was friends with US
president George W. Bush, Fox made history in 2000 when he was
elected president, ending 71 years of PRI rule in Mexico.
     "First he wanted to get the PRI out of power, and now he's
trying to put them back in again," Rodriguez said as he
arranged spice bottles for his Tuesday lunch customers.
     "The economy has to continue improving, and the only
economist in the race is Josefina," he said, referring to PAN
candidate Josefina Vasquez Mota, who is hoping to be Mexico's
first female president.
     Polls have her running a distant third, far behind Pena
Nieto and leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the Party of
the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
     "Only a miracle will allow that lady to win," Fox told
reporters recently.
     PAN members were especially outraged by a Fox interview
Sunday with Spain's El Pais in which he blasted President
Felipe Calderon, his successor and fellow party member.
     Under Calderon "there is a grave employment deficit," Fox
said. And in the war on drugs, "there have been innumerable
human rights violations."
     "I'm not calling for people to vote for the PRI, I'm
calling for people to unite around the front-runner, and the
winner is in sight," he told El Pais.
     "My loyalty is with democracy, with the people of Mexico."
     The PRI ran Mexico for 71 years through a combination of
patronage, corruption and ballot-box fraud until they were
ousted in 2000. Pena Nieto's opponents have argued that his
victory would mean a return to the bad old days.
     PAN spokesman Javier Lozano responded to Fox late Monday
with unusually harsh language, calling the former president a
"scoundrel," a "hypocrite," a "liar" and an "opportunist" for
turning his back on his party.
     He was "myopic" for not realizing that Europe's economic
woes contribute to Mexico's slowdown, and a "megalomaniac" for
comparing himself to Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill and
Martin Luther King.
     President Calderon "has had to pick up the garbage from
previous years of irresponsible and cowardly government during
previous presidencies, including (Fox's)," Lozano said.
     "Everything seems to indicate that he sold out" to Pena
Nieto, Lozano said. "We have definitely lost him."
     In part because he joined the PAN as an adult, Fox has
been out of place among life-long party loyalists like
Calderon, so he is more open to speaking his mind, said
political scientist Nicolas Loza.
     "The joke was that Fox and not the PAN reached the
presidency in 2000," said Loza, who teaches at the FLACSO
graduate school.
     Fox has always been friendly to PRI members and is
especially bent on preventing Lopez Obrador -- whom he derides
as "Lopez Chavez," a reference to leftist Venezuelan leader
Hugo Chavez -- from reaching the presidency.
     "Fox's behavior is not totally out of the unusual given
the advances of Lopez Obrador," who is now second in the polls,
said Loza.
     Fox clashed with Lopez Obrador when the latter was mayor
of Mexico City and when the leftist politician brought the city
to a standstill with mass protests after narrowly losing the
2006 election.
     Internal bickering is nothing new for the PAN, Loza said,
pointing out that Calderon was not Fox's choice to succeed him,
just as Vazquez Mota was not Calderon's first choice as
presidential candidate.
     PAN loyalist Alejandro Flores, 27, squirmed in his seat at
a Mexico City party office when asked about Fox. "It was not
the right time or place to say such things," he said.
     Flores said he preferred to remember Fox for his role in
prying the PRI out of office after seven decades. "For me, Fox
will always have a place in our party," he said.

[jaichind]

Can someone post the link to PREP so we can follow the results tomorrow.  When does the polls close?

[jaichind]

Ah. I found it.
http://www.ife.org.mx/difusores.html

[jaichind]

It looks like PRI flipped Chiapas


     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Institutional Revolutionary Party
is leading in governors’ races in three Mexican states, TV
Azteca said, citing exit polls.
     The PRI, as the party is known, is ahead in races in
Jalisco, Chiapas and Yucatan, the Mexico City-based network
reported, based on the surveys of voters at polling stations.
Contests in three other states are too close to call based on
the margin of error, TV Azteca said.

[jaichind]

Well if Tabasco is too close to call then that is not great for PRI since they currently hold it.  I guess it is expected since like you said that AMLO running might be helping PRD there.  I think when the PRI took Tabasco in 2006 it was not on the same voting date as the Prez election where AMLO could have helped the PRD candidate.  I guess positive for PRI is Morelos where it is currently held by PAN and PRI might be able to flip it.

I forgot to include Guanajuato in the previous post! (it is 6 states plus the Federal District). Guanajuato is PAN's stronghold.

So, new exit polls have come out for the governor elections.
These are from El Universal newspaper:

Yucatan: PRI 58%  PAN 33%  PRD 8%  PANAL 1%  (PRI announced another exit poll by Parametria pollster that had PRI between 49 and 56%, PAN between 35 and 40% -- strange that the PRI announced poll is a bit closer than the newspaper one).

Chiapas: PRI-Green 58% PRD 23% PAN 12% and a local Chiapas party 7%  (TV Azteca network announced another exit poll by Mendoza Blanco pollster than gave PRI around 64%!)

Guanajuato: PAN 45%  PRI 37% PRD 16% others 2%

Morelos and Tabasco were declared too close to call by El Universal's exit poll.

These are big results for PRI in my opinion, since the margin in Chiapas is huge and their lose in Guanajuato relatively close.

The source is just El Universal newspaper main webpage.. results in the ticker:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

[jaichind]

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential candidate
Enrique Pena Nieto leads his rivals in voting today as he seeks
to return the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party to
power, according to an exit poll from GEA-ISA.
     Pena Nieto has 42 percent of the vote, leading Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party, who has
31 percent, and Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National
Action Party, with 23 percent, according to Mexico City-based
polling company. GEA-ISA questioned 3,588 people and the poll
had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

[jaichind]

PENA NIETO TAKES 51.7% OF MEXICO VOTE IN PRELIMINARY COUNT:IFE
Of course this is based on a few hundred votes.

[jaichind]

*MEXICO'S PRI WILL HAVE MAJORITY OF SENATE, VIDEGARAY SAYS
*PENA NIETO HAS WON MEXICAN ELECTION, VIDEGARAY SAYS
*PENA NIETO WON WITH MARGIN OF 5 TO 6 MILLION VOTES: VIDEGARAY

VIDEGARAY is General Coordinator of Nieto's campaign.

[jaichind]

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Enrique Pena Nieto is ahead in
Mexico’s presidential vote today as he seeks to propel the once-
dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party back to power,
according to an exit poll from BGC, Ulises Beltran y Asociados.
     Pena Nieto has 40 percent of the vote, leading Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolutionary Party, with
32 percent, and Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National
Action Party, with 25 percent, according to the survey of voters
at polling stations. The poll was released by BGC Excelsior.

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN concedes.

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Josefina Vazquez Mota, the candidate
of the ruling National Action Party, said the early results of
voting in today’s election don’t favor her.
     Vazquez Mota made the comments in a televised speech in
Mexico City.

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN getting around 28-29% of the vote in Prez, Senete, and Congerss rates.  Pretty consistent.