Mexico 2012

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Before we do the 2012, we should do Michoacan 2011. I will try to make up the background, etc.

[ag]

Cordero standing a chance? He is, at best, a distant third for PAN nomination in every poll imaginable, both among PANistas and the electorate in general, and he is considered a lightweight even by his own personal friends. I am yet to see anybody, not directly employed by the administration, to say he is supporting Cordero for nomination.

Cordero was viewed as an inefectual Treasury secretary - mostly, because he had to struggle to be respected even by his own direct subordinates. He is a decent guy, but very few people take him to be presidential material. His only claim to nomination is that he is very loyal to Calderon and Calderon supports him - and Calderon does have a lot of weight in the party, and knows it really well, so that shouldn't be discounted. But, if he is nominated, he will badly struggle to come even second - forget winning the election, that's simply out of the question. He is going to be a disaster for PAN down ballot.

To sum up, I will give Cordero about a 1/3 chance to get the nomination and, conditional on getting the nomination, under 1/3 chance of being among the top 2 candidates in the general.  He can't win.

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BTW, which country's ambassador was that?

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Pena Nieto, of course, is by far the front runner. He will be "less confrontational" on drugs - everybody will be, everybody's seen what it has done to Calderon. Not that it is going to change much - it's not like there is a drugster Politburo you can negotiate with, even if you wanted to.

As for the oil... that's interesting. I doubt he is going to have an outright majority in Congress - it's difficult to achieve in Mexico - and, even if he gets it, it will only likely be there for the first 3 years (electoral law is fairly anti-majoritarian, given the existence of 3 major parties). More importantly, big blocks of PRI legislators are controlled by governors and regional bosses, and will not be directly under Pena Nieto control. PRI does have a substantial block that's still sentimental about the oil nationalisation - it will be tough to do much even under the best of circumstances. Still, of course, any PRIista would have easier time doing this than a PANista. The question is, would he want to do it?

[ag]

Well, one modification on Cordero: he will likely come second if, as may very well happen, both Lopez Obrador and Ebrard run (the former for PT, the latter for PRD).  They will split the leftist vote, so one can easily come second w/ about 25%.

Otherwise, if it is only Lopez Obrador running on the left, a big chunk of panista electorate will split off to whoever the priista is, to make sure there is no risk of Lopez winning. If it is Ebrard, he is a legitimate and experienced anti-PRI candidate, perfectly acceptable to the (non-clerical) right. In that case, Cordero will hold the "Yunque" (the Catholic ultras; not because he is one, which he is not, but because Ebrard is, probably, the most secular candidate out there - and the one w/ the most complicated personal life to boot), but will loose many of the "neoliberals" and technocrats to Ebrard. Cordero has no personal vote, and it is not clear where it may come from. He will only get those panistas and pan-leaners who find every other major candidate entirely unacceptable.

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Yeah, PT and Convergencia (or, whatever it is called now - they've renamed) will support Lopez Obrador no matter what (unless, of course, he himself chooses not to run - which is next to impossible). Ebrard's job now is to do everything possible to make sure that Lopez Obrador implodes - without being visibly behind the implosion himself. Lopez does have significant and very loyal personal vote. It's not enough to win election, but it is enough to affect who wins it (definitely enough to make sure that Ebrard is non-competitive).

"Neoliberals and technocrats" might not be a major electorate in themselves, but they are not an insignificant chunk of chattering classes, so the impact on election wouldn't be insignificant. Of course, as a neoliberal and technocrat myself I am likely to exaggerate our importance )) But, then, that is supposed to be Cordero's natural electorate - he is a neoliberal technocrat w/ little appeal to anyone else. And he isn't generating any excitement even among that segment of the population.

[ag]

PAN has just decided they will use a closed primary (i.e. only w/ registered members and "adherents" voting) to nominate the candidate. This is, actually, relatively good for Cordero - not that he is particularly popular among the members, but Calderon knows/feels that electorate very well and this is the knowledge that he used to defeat Creel last time. Creel is not a true party man - he'd, probably, prefer an open primary any day. How will this play for Vazquez Mota - this I don't yet understand (probably, because I haven't been following too close).

[ag]

On November 13th there will be the last state-level poll before next July (a bunch of state elections are held the same day as the national one). In Michoacan they will be electing the governor, the state legislature and municipal mayors.

Michoacan has been governed by PRD for 2 terms (since 2002). In fact, it is the native state of the Cardenas clan, and old Cuauhtemoc was a governor himself in the 1980s (before he left PRI). His son was the governor from 2002 to 2008.  But it also is the native state of Calderon and the president's sister is running for PAN this time. And 4 years ago, if I recall correctly, PRI has sufficiently recovered in the state to re-capture the mayoralty of the state capital (Morelia) from PAN. So, this is going to be fun.

The polls show a three-way split between the main parties, so the election is going to be unpredictable. September poll from Reforma showed PRI ahead of PRD ahead of PAN, but their poll published today shows PAN (Calderon-sis) at 37%,  PRI at 33%, PRD at 29% Still, it is all within the margin: it's a true free-for-all. Calderon seems to have a commanding lead among women, but is not polling well among men.

If PRI gets it, their inevitability next year is reinforced. If PAN captures this from PRD (especially if they also retake Morelia from PRI), they might spin this into a revival and popular endorsement of the current federal administration. PRD really has to hold this.

[ag]

I'm wondering that if the PRI wins back the Presidency and the Congress, if they'll roll back democratization?

Not likely. Not easily done. Though, of course, who knows.

[ag]

Election is today.

It has been very nasty. A few weeks ago the panista mayor of La Piedad was killed. Yesterday a local paper in that same town was forced to print a threatening advertisement, announcing reprisals for anyone who'd vote PAN or walk around w/ pan propaganda, etc. (they also published a disclaimer, saying that they are printing this to avoid damage to their staff).

Results later tonight.

[ag]

All three parties have declared victory )

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I think polls has closed

BTW.  I found this

http://revistaemet.com/nota/mendoza-blanco-y-asociados-da-como-ganador-a-silvano-aureoles/5857

Which, if my spanish is correct, indicates that latest poll taken recently, has PAN 31, PRI 34, and PRD 35.  We will have the real results soon enough

When things are this close and three-way, exit polls are meaningless.

[ag]

So, as is normally done in Mexico, we will have the preliminary unofficial count tonight. If it is close, it will not determine the winner though: there always are quite a few polling booths were they screw up w/ filing the protocols w/ the preliminary count.  The official count will be next weak.

[ag]

So, first results. W/ something like 2 precincts reporting we have

PRI/PVEM 63.89%
PRD/PT/PC 23.61%
PAN/PANAL 9.72%

This is, of course, still profoundly meaningless.

[ag]

Something like one more precinct:

PRI 52.8%
PRD 26.4%
PAN 16.8%

[ag]

Nah, it is even more meaningless - the precincts so far reporting are tiny, w/ under 100 votes each. This is not serious for the moment.

[ag]

Still, I can't make myself stop, however nonsensical. W/ 4 precincts reporting it is

PRI 113 votes (43.97%)
PRD 93 votes (36.19%)
PAN 46 votes (17.90%)

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Got the exact: PRD 14, PAN 12, PRI 10; PVEM, PT, Convergencia and Panal - 1 each.

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Each state has its own constitution, but they are similar. In case of Michoacan there 24 FPTP districts and 16 PR. The rules for allocating the PR are arcane and, usually, things wind up in the electoral tribunal.

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Another heavily PRI (why did I want to write GOP? ) ) precinct:

PRI 192 votes (48.48%)
PRD 146 votes (36.87%)
PAN 51 votes (12.88%)
invalid 7 votes (1.77%)

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Starts accelerating

PRI 274 votes (44.55%)
PRD 171 votes (27.80%)
PAN 153 votes (24.88%)
invalid 17 votes (2.76%)

BTW, the big PAN batch came from La Piedad.

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PRI 304 votes (45.17%)
PRD 184 votes (27.34%)
PAN 166 votes (24.67%)
invalid 19 votes (2.82%)

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9/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 344 votes (41.85%)
PRD 264 votes (32.12%)
PAN 189 votes (22.99%)
invalid 25 votes (3.04%)

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12/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 389 votes (39.98%)
PRD 331 votes (34.02%)
PAN 226 votes (23.23%)
invalid 27 votes (2.77%)

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13/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 413 votes (39.48%)
PRD 356 votes (34.03%)
PAN 250 votes (23.90%)
invalid 27 votes (2.58%)