Mexico 2012

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Just had a great short talk with the former Ambassador to Mexico, who was telling me how Ernesto Cordero is to him the only panista to stand a chance. He doesn't appear to think either Creel or that lady stand much of a chance. Also interesting how he mentioned that Pena Nieto, while a boring centrist who won't change much, might be less confrontational on the drug issue and more likely to make some reforms to the oil sector and so forth because he'd likely have a congressional majority.

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Weird regional results. Anybody want to take a stab at some explanations?

Tamaulipas for JVM, along with Nuevo Leon (fair enough), Guanajuato (well, obviously) and Veracruz... what's up with the first and last state on this list?

Priista landslide in Zacatecas: isn't this a PRD stronghold normally?

Baja California seems sucky both for PAN (in the north) and PRD (in the south)

On the other, aren't those some pretty strong PRD performances in Tabasco (even though Madrazo probably had a boost there in 2006), Oaxaca and Puebla?

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Did they publish the composition of Congress, including the PR seats in both chambers? Or is there a simple way to guess them? I don't want to delay my blog post for too long because they're lagers.

Re: Chiapas. It's amusing how the PVEM's victory in the gubernatorial race had an effect on other races: 19.2% for Ken Barbie on the PVEM line, 3 house seats for PVEM candidates, 24.8% for the PVEM line on the PRI-PVEM senatorial slate. Was the PVEM strong in Chiapas beforehand or is this a new development? The PVEM has always fascinated me as a party.

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I think Velasco's grandfather was a PRI governor in the state in the 1970s.