Mexico 2012

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'm surprised that there hasn't been a thread created for this yet but it does look as if this election is a done deal thanks to Enrique Pena Nieto and his celebrity status thanks to his wife being a telonovela star. Regardless of his utter lack of accomplishment during his six year government of Edomex, he is stomping his competition in the polls:

El Universal (December, 2010)
Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI) 39.4%
Santiago Creel (PAN) 14.6%
Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon (PRD) 12.6%

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI) 40.9%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 12.1%
Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon (PRD) 12.1%

(sorry about the old nature of the poll, I can't find anything else on the internet. I can only assume that the state of the race has largely stayed the same.)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Well, one modification on Cordero: he will likely come second if, as may very well happen, both Lopez Obrador and Ebrard run (the former for PT, the latter for PRD).  They will split the leftist vote, so one can easily come second w/ about 25%.

Otherwise, if it is only Lopez Obrador running on the left, a big chunk of panista electorate will split off to whoever the priista is, to make sure there is no risk of Lopez winning. If it is Ebrard, he is a legitimate and experienced anti-PRI candidate, perfectly acceptable to the (non-clerical) right. In that case, Cordero will hold the "Yunque" (the Catholic ultras; not because he is one, which he is not, but because Ebrard is, probably, the most secular candidate out there - and the one w/ the most complicated personal life to boot), but will loose many of the "neoliberals" and technocrats to Ebrard. Cordero has no personal vote, and it is not clear where it may come from. He will only get those panistas and pan-leaners who find every other major candidate entirely unacceptable.

I read somewhere that the PT and Convergencia will endorse Obrador regardless who the PRD nominates, is this true? Does Obrador have any appeal to the electorate anymore? Do neo-liberals and technocrats even have much sway in Mexican politics?

Anyways I expect most of my family members to support Ebrard. They aren't catholic, are middle class and are very educated/urban. At least I hope they will support Ebrard, he's the only candidate I could get behind.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Yep, Lopez Obrador is ahead on 3 out of 5 questions asked and Ebrard is not running.

Ugh, it looks like I will be supporting whoever the PAN nominates...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

PAN Primary was today (well, yesterday already). Final results are still outstanding, but Josefina Vazquez Mota has defeated both Ernesto Cordero (the favorite of President Calderon) and Santiago Creel. Both have conceded, so Vázquez Mota becomes the first female major party nominee for presidency in Mexican history.

As neither PRI, nor PRD have had competitive primaries (with Manlio Fabio Beltrones and Marcelo Ebrard conceding before any such vote could be held), the candidates are:

PRI/PVEM/PANAL (the latter still subject to last minute renegotiations) Enrique Peña Nieto
PAN Josefina Vázquez Mota
PRD/PT/MC (the latter is Movimento Ciudadano, ex-Convergencia) Andrés Manuel López Obrador

How do you think she will fare?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

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THANK YOU BASED GOD!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

My mom will be voting for Vazquez Mota and has no interest in choosing between a lesser of two evils of Nieto and AMLO (I'm guessing she'd pick AMLO). If I actually decided to go through the process and become a dual citizen, I'd probably vote for Quadri.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I saw this...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/07/enrique-pena-nieto-mexico-election

...and thought of this thread.

Even American coverage of this election is superior.