Mexico 2012

[ThePrezMex]

Hi all,
I've been intending to log in and contribute on this thread for month, but well, finally got to do it now.
You can watch live results on the sites provided by IFE:
http://www.ife.org.mx/difusores.html

and Google is providing a cool page with maps with feed directly from IFE:
http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results

[ThePrezMex]

Milenio newspaper just gave the results of their exit poll in Federal District for the Mayor election (poll done by GEA-ISA).

Link in Spanish:
http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/cfcc5f12a8baea4b4ad5183a596fe728

The candidate of the leftist alliance (PRD-PT-MC) Miguel Angel Mancera has 61% in the exit poll
Beatriz Paredes of PRI has 23%
Isabel Miranda of PAN has 14% and
Rosario Guerra of PANAL has 2%

The last tracking poll that Milenio had published on Wednesday had Mancera with almost 66%, Beatriz Paredes with 20.5%, Miranda with 11% and Rosario Guerra 1.8%

So while the result was as expected and Mancera won by a landslide, the margin was slightly closer than the last poll showed.

As I'm pretty sure has been discussed earlier on this thread, exit polls of state elections can be announced at the closing of the polls, in the case of Federal District it was at 6pm CST

[ThePrezMex]

Which states are the ones to watch?

I would watch in particular the 6 that also have governor elections: Federal District (Mayor), Chiapas, Yucatan, Morelos, Jalisco and Tabasco. I would be looking in the exit polls that are coming out now how the PRI is doing with respect to the latest polls. Take into account that four of those six states have a strong support for Lopez Obrador: Federal District, Chiapas, Morelos and Tabasco (his home state). In Yucatan the fight is between PRI and PAN as it would typically be in Jalisco, but this time around a third candidate supported by the left (apart of the PRD candidate) was polling a strong second behind PRI.

[ThePrezMex]

I forgot to include Guanajuato in the previous post! (it is 6 states plus the Federal District). Guanajuato is PAN's stronghold.

So, new exit polls have come out for the governor elections.
These are from El Universal newspaper:

Yucatan: PRI 58%  PAN 33%  PRD 8%  PANAL 1%  (PRI announced another exit poll by Parametria pollster that had PRI between 49 and 56%, PAN between 35 and 40% -- strange that the PRI announced poll is a bit closer than the newspaper one).

Chiapas: PRI-Green 58% PRD 23% PAN 12% and a local Chiapas party 7%  (TV Azteca network announced another exit poll by Mendoza Blanco pollster than gave PRI around 64%!)

Guanajuato: PAN 45%  PRI 37% PRD 16% others 2%

Morelos and Tabasco were declared too close to call by El Universal's exit poll.

These are big results for PRI in my opinion, since the margin in Chiapas is huge and their lose in Guanajuato relatively close.

The source is just El Universal newspaper main webpage.. results in the ticker:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

[ThePrezMex]

yes, and in Jalisco, El Universal exit poll says:

PRI 44%
Citizen's Movement 33%
PAN 16%
PRD 4%
PANAL 2%

Looks like PRI was able to hold the challenge from the Citizen's Movement candidate (supported by Lopez Obrador)

[ThePrezMex]

Yes, all the exit polls were consistent:

Milenio GEA-ISA: PRI 42%  PRD 31%  PAN 23%  PANAL 4%
TV Azteca:          PRI (39-42.7%) PRD (30.8-34.4%) PAN (22.1-25.7%) PANAL (2.1-3.1%)
Excelsior (BGC):  PRI 40%  PRD 32%  PAN 25% PANAL 3%
El Universal:        PRI 42%  PRD 31%  PAN 24% PANAL 3%

[ThePrezMex]

http://www.prepchiapas2012.com/home_gobernador.cfm

is PREP for Chiapas. Just found it

The Green Party-PRI-PANAL candidate Manuel Velasco is winning in a landslide. He is only 31yo! His grandfather (who was a very prominent physician) was governor in the 1970s.

[ThePrezMex]

The CIRT (stands for the Association of Radio and Television Networks) commissioned a quick count to Consulta Mitofsky. The results are:

PRI 40.3%
PRD 31.8%
PAN 25.4%
PANAL 2.5%

I don't know if it has been discussed here before, but the quick count is based on real votes (as opposed to exit polls that are as their name says, polls). This quick count uses a sample of around 7,000 precincts from all over the country, which is supposed to make it representative of the total votes (taken into account mix of urban/rural, etc). The results of each precinct are posted in a sign on the doors of the precinct, so people can go and see their precinct results.
IFE will release its own quick count at 11:45pm CST.

And responding to a previous question, yes, the results are coming in pretty slowly.

[ThePrezMex]

IFE just announced the results of their quick count. Half hour earlier than expected.The results are:

PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto between 37.93 and 38.95%
PRD - López Obrador      between 30.90 and 31.86%
PAN - Vázquez Mota       between 25.10 and 26.03%
PANAL - Gabriel Quadri   between  2.27 and 2.57%

And President Calderon is just speaking live right now, congratulating Peña Nieto.

[ThePrezMex]

Looking at the results so far, I think it is fair to say that Peña Nieto has won:
Chihuahua, Durango, Michoacan, Sinaloa and Zacatecas.
López Obrador has won Federal District and his home state of Tabasco.
Josefina Vazquez Mota has won Nuevo Leon.
And we would be able to call very soon Oaxaca for Lopez Obrador and Tamaulipas for Josefina.

Given that we are in the US Election Atlas, I always like to make the imaginary exercise of what would happen if Mexico also had the US electoral college system. In Mexico's case, the number of federal districts is 300, so the winner would need 151 electoral votes.
Given the states that I just called, Peña Nieto would have 37ev, Lopez Obrador 33 and Josefina 12.

If the current trend in each of the other states hold, Peña Nieto would end up with 163ev, Lopez Obrador 103, and Josefina 34.

[ThePrezMex]

Don't forget the Senate And in Mexico each state has 3 senators, so you should add another 96 electoral votes

You are correct! So the electoral college would be 396 instead of 300, with the majority being 199.

Peña Nieto would have right no2 52, López obrador 39, Josefina 15
And with the current trend, Peña Nieto would win with 220ev, López Obrador 133ev and Josefina 43ev.

[ThePrezMex]

What are the trends in each state anyway?

Just based on the PREP results. You can look at them graphically on the Google election page, I'll post the link again here.
It is quite fun to click on each state and see the results by district and the % of votes in (you can play you are a Mexican John King in your imagination).
I just saw that it is almost sure Josefina Vazquez Mota is going to win Tamaulipas but that Guanajuato is still too close to call for example, given where the results are coming in (the districts in which Josefina is winning are almost 60% reported (except one) while the Peña Nieto ones are in around 45% reported).

http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results

[ThePrezMex]

Weird regional results. Anybody want to take a stab at some explanations?

Tamaulipas for JVM, along with Nuevo Leon (fair enough), Guanajuato (well, obviously) and Veracruz... what's up with the first and last state on this list?

Priista landslide in Zacatecas: isn't this a PRD stronghold normally?

Baja California seems sucky both for PAN (in the north) and PRD (in the south)

On the other, aren't those some pretty strong PRD performances in Tabasco (even though Madrazo probably had a boost there in 2006), Oaxaca and Puebla?

Yes, there are some interesting results. My guess is that voters in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon have punished very incompetent PRI governors (in terms of their fight against organized crime); the last time I saw polls there, President Calderon is very popular and there's a high approval rating for the presence of the military in public safety tasks there. In the local elections in Nuevo Leon, PAN is also getting very good results (even though PAN has its share of corruption scandals there). Peña Nieto is getting a very thin victory in Coahuila, another of PRI strongholds, but with a very prominently corrupt former governor.

It has been a big surprise for me that PAN did so badly in Baja California, a state that as AG mentioned, has been governed by PAN since 1989. Vazquez Mota is running third there!

Zacatecas used to be one of PRI's strongest states until they lost the governorship in 1998 (PRI still won Zacatecas in 2000 over Vicente Fox). But PRI recovered the governorship from PRD in 2010 and seems like the state might be going back to PRI.

Yes, since Madrazo was also from Tabasco, he got around 38% in 2006 (compared to Peña Nieto's 31% with 84% votes counted). And while Lopez Obrador is doing better than in 2006, he's not much above.. he got about 58% in 2006 and is scoring 60% right now.

[ThePrezMex]

The case of Baja California is very interesting.
In the Presidential Election the results so far (86% counted):

PRI 36.54%
PRD 31.29%
PAN 27.52%!
PANAL 2.84%

But look at the Senate vote so far:

PAN 31.95%
PRD 26.26%
PRI  25.90%
Green 3.95%
PANAL 3.92%

And for House:

PRI is ahead in 7 of 8 districts and PAN in 1
PRI 38.29%
PAN 29.65%
PRD 24.79%
PANAL 4.64%

People split their vote all over the place in Baja California.

[ThePrezMex]

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.

They voted for the crazy man, EPN.

No, he is the stupid man, AMLO is the crazy man.

All Romans are crazy, the Gaul village is at Selva Lacandona (Chiapas). This time it seems that Chiapanecos got tired of PRD and went again into the arms of PRI (and PVEM). As far as I know PRI was very strong in Chiapas historically.

Thanks for the excellent maps!! (and thanks to Shibboleth as well).

Veracruz and Puebla are indeed extremely close, and as you pointed out, they could flip once the official numbers come in and recounts done. If we had an electoral vote system this would be getting all the attention, alas is not relevant in Mexico (although it certainly is for us Atlasians).

Looks like PRI was able to win back two states that were traditionally very strong for them, Zacatecas and Chiapas, and that had been in hands of PRD for two consecutive elections (PRI won the governorship of Zacatecas back in 2010 and now they won the presidential vote) - but they have also lost two of other strongholds: Oaxaca and Puebla (both governorships in 2010 to an alliance of PAN-PRD (the nominal governor of Oaxaca is from PRD and Puebla from PAN) and now losing the presidential election. So people just exercising their power to vote out bad governments.

BTW, having read and enjoyed Asterix the Gaul since I was a pretty young, I object your characterization of the Selva Lacandona as where the Gaul Village is!!!  Although, thinking more about it, I might be considered more like a Roman... :/ .. hmm.. my real name in any case would make me appear in at least a couple of the book titles representing Rome, ha.