Mexico 2012

[NVGonzalez]

I hear networks are projecting Pena Nieto now... Idk what to make of this. Also the fact that PRI regained my Mexican home state Jalisco for the first time in 18 years. Wow.

[NVGonzalez]

The map at the moment looks very different from 2006 in the north. Lots of PRI flipping in the north from PAN in 2006 and some of the centrals that PRD took are also green. But the most interesting thing is that the southern states except Chiapas remain yellow. PAN lost so much ground it's insane. You could tell from Josefina's voice in her first speech that her party and not just her was screwed.

Funny how they did gain ground in the state elections in the North East though.

[NVGonzalez]

The map at the moment looks very different from 2006 in the north. Lots of PRI flipping in the north from PAN in 2006 and some of the centrals that PRD took are also green. But the most interesting thing is that the southern states except Chiapas remain yellow. PAN lost so much ground it's insane. You could tell from Josefina's voice in her first speech that her party and not just her was screwed.

Funny how they did gain ground in the state elections in the North East though.

Well, JVM comes third, whereas Calderon won, so this is the obvious swing. AMLO may even repeat his 2006 percentage, and may do better in some of his old strongholds. The interesting thing is the Northeast, but you have to look at the senate/hose elections. Back in 2006 and, especially, in 2009 PRI was superstrong there: PAN is on the upswing locally, despite the general fiasco.

Also Vazquez Mota seems to be taking Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. Everything else...

They have state elections there in just over a year - they'd better figure out what's gone wrong, or PRI will add this state to its crown.

Basically this

[NVGonzalez]

I have a few friends from Jalisco, maybe I should ask them what they think about PRI.

I grew up in Jalisco (though I was born NV) I'm stunned this is happening there considering how solid Jalisco *was for PAN*. What do I think of it? I'll just say I'm nervous.

*edit Sorry I was double tasking

[NVGonzalez]

Pena Nieto seems to have won this by less than I expected him too in fact his advantage is in single digits. PRD kept most of their ground and can figure out how to expand that. PAN is a completely different story. They only kept 3 states out of their Northern territory for now. Ouch

[NVGonzalez]

Well, everyone has accepted the result, it seems - except for one person. AMLO says, that he will "wait for the final count".

Of course.

[NVGonzalez]

Don't forget the Senate And in Mexico each state has 3 senators, so you should add another 96 electoral votes

You are correct! So the electoral college would be 396 instead of 300, with the majority being 199.

Peña Nieto would have right no2 52, López obrador 39, Josefina 15
And with the current trend, Peña Nieto would win with 220ev, López Obrador 133ev and Josefina 43ev.

I will say election nights in Mexico would be funner with EV's and the American way. It was just so boring to see the race get called like that.