Mexico 2012

[LastVoter]

I may have seen some polling, though I am not certain - not for a run-off, of course, but about your "second preference". Actually, this is not the same thing One votes very differently, depending on whether the election is close or not. For instance, if the last pre-election poll were to show Pena Nieto far ahead of everyone, my second choice would have been Lopez Obrador - I'd hate a big Pena majority. On the other hand, if I thought Lopez Obrador could win, I would definitely claim my second preference to be Pena Nieto - I'd hate a Lopez Obrador victory, whatever the margin. As the run-off and first-round dynamics aren't the same, I could very well imagine voting for Lopez Obrador in the first round only to switch to Pena Nieto in the second ) In any case, my preference in one-round election would be different from that in a two-round poll.

So is your first preference some "irrelevant" third fourth party, and if so who? This post is confusing to me, I assume it's not the right-wingers since you said you would would for one of the left-wingers if it's a two round vote. It seems to me both of the left-wingers have some serious baggage, AMLO hired Guiliani and seems to have trolled seriously over his loss in past presidential election. PRI is well... PRI.

[LastVoter]

I have a few friends from Jalisco, maybe I should ask them what they think about PRI.

[LastVoter]

One of the two precincts on my block (my wife's) has reported. Reliably PANista, even at the dark hour

Total number registered 467 voters
Turnout 358 (76.65%)
JVM 148
EPN 110 votes
AMLO 92 votes
Quadri 6 votes
write-in 0 vote
invalid 2 votes

actually, have to update: somehow the results changed in a few minutes, must have been an erroneous entry. still panista, but less resoundingly so.

2nd update: I originally confused the presidential results w/ the senate, originally, PANd did get over 50% for the senate, but JVM is substantially behind her party even here.

So it's  a gated community?

[LastVoter]

Well, it looks like only 2 out of 6 ballots I cast yesterday were for a winner

One was, obviously, Mancera - but that's obvious. The other was, surprizingly, for the city council. Of the 40 FPTP seats PRD is taking 38, it seems, and PAN is ahead in 2 (w/ one of those beeing too close to call). My district is the only semi-safe PAN district in the entire city at this point: district XX of the city council

PAN 53,456 votes
PRD/PT/MC 47,562 votes
PRI/PVEM 27,658 votes
PANAL 3,141 votes
invalid 5,272 votes (for city council races a lot of people, probably, simply cast blanks)

This is Mexico's archetypal middle class land: western Benito Juarez and northeastern Alvaro Obregon boroughs. No, it's not a giant gated community

Just to show the proxi Ebrard (i.e., Mancera) vote in the same district:

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 76,242 votes
Miranda Wallace (PAN) 31,365 votes
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 26,203 votes
PANAL 1,027 votes
invalid 2,235 votes

Is gated community an unfeasible concept in Mexico because many of the rich have cartel money?