Greece 50% writedown (Oct. 2011)

[Wonkish1]

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Beet what are your thoughts on this^^^^^?

[Beet]

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Beet what are your thoughts on this^^^^^?

From what I see, I agree with you, but if that is the case the Germans should be voting FDP. Instead they are voting for the party whose last Chancellor just called for a "United States of Europe" not more than a month or two ago. However, I expect that things will continue to get more acute and this plan will not really resolve the issue, so the story isn't over. Just because the frog hasn't jumped out of the pond yet...

[Wonkish1]

From what I see, I agree with you, but if that is the case the Germans should be voting FDP. Instead they are voting for the party whose last Chancellor just called for a "United States of Europe" not more than a month or two ago. However, I expect that things will continue to get more acute and this plan will not really resolve the issue, so the story isn't over. Just because the frog hasn't jumped out of the pond yet...

I do find it weird that something like 8 in 10 Germans now think that Germany would have better off without the Euro and they are voting out the FDP and voting in the SPD in state elections. Now granted state elections have 0 to do with parliamentary votes on exiting or staying with the Euro, but is still weird.

FDP is my favorite party in Germany, but I get the impression that SPD is doing better mostly at CDU's loss because CDU is in power and people don't like whats going on. But they aren't paying enough attention to realize that SPD would probably triple the amount of money that they would hand out to the rest of Europe.


That said, I think unless the rest of the Eurozone is really, really good at getting Germany to agree to constant marginal increases in German help eventually they are going to ask Germany to go "all in" to and they'll say no.


I bet when the ECB gets taken over by the new Italian guy they will announce a "very modest" program to buy up another small quantity of government bonds. Then 3 months later they'll announce a slightly larger "modest" program to buy up more. Ever trying to not piss off the Germans. But if the ECB announces a large $800 billion dollar monetization program I don't see how Germany doesn't say "F-you" and leave.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It isn't weird at all. The FDP is a worthless joke at the best of times.

[Franzl]

It isn't weird at all. The FDP is a worthless joke at the best of times.

No dispute from me at the present time.....at least.

[opebo]

This is a very complicated answer, but lets start by seeing how much you know about fractional reserve banking, the money supply, and the velocity of money. That way hopefully we don't have to start this all the way back at the basics of what happens when a bank lends.

I can't believe I'm actually allowing opebo into a discussion. You better stay very far from crazy town in this discussion or I'm not ever going to let you into a discussion again. Your last 2 posts have been fine, they better stay that way.

Shut your quivering little pie-hole, upstart.

[Franzl]

I actually kind of enjoy being a "villan", opebo

[opebo]

I actually kind of enjoy being a "villan", opebo

Sorry, who are you?  What do you mean?

[Gustaf]

This is a very complicated answer, but lets start by seeing how much you know about fractional reserve banking, the money supply, and the velocity of money. That way hopefully we don't have to start this all the way back at the basics of what happens when a bank lends.

I can't believe I'm actually allowing opebo into a discussion. You better stay very far from crazy town in this discussion or I'm not ever going to let you into a discussion again. Your last 2 posts have been fine, they better stay that way.

Shut your quivering little pie-hole, upstart.

The famous Opebo wit, gentlemen.

You really need to work on your feigned indifference, old chap.

[LastVoter]

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS
Interesting...

[Gustaf]

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS
Interesting...

That is only one stat making up total employment and as such can easily be misleading. It's more useful to look at total hours worked divided by total population in a given year.

[Wonkish1]

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS
Interesting...

That is only one stat making up total employment and as such can easily be misleading. It's more useful to look at total hours worked divided by total population in a given year.

Also hours worked isn't all that useful at all. If I work an extra hour each day beyond someone else, but I spend half of my time staring at my desk then the extra hour is meaningless.

The bigger issue is productivity instead of hours worked.

[Beet]

Greece still has inflation at a steady 3% rate, and the current account has barely shrunk by one-tenth over the year. Given the surge in the unemployment rate to 18%, this is hard to accept. It seems they are getting all of the pain but none of the reward. Where is the internal devaluation? At this point, they may as well impose a mandated, across-the-board cut in ALL wages and prices by 15%. This is a balance of payments crisis and the government and IMF must target the balance of payments! That they have made so little progress on this after inflicting so much pain is a horror movie.

[opebo]

Greece still has inflation at a steady 3% rate, and the current account has barely shrunk by one-tenth over the year. Given the surge in the unemployment rate to 18%, this is hard to accept. It seems they are getting all of the pain but none of the reward. Where is the internal devaluation? At this point, they may as well impose a mandated, across-the-board cut in ALL wages and prices by 15%. This is a balance of payments crisis and the government and IMF must target the balance of payments! That they have made so little progress on this after inflicting so much pain is a horror movie.

This is because competition doesn't work, Beet.

[Yelnoc]

Can you change the thread title?  It's bothering me.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Can you change the thread title?  It's bothering me.

I couldn't agree more.

[Beet]

Can you change the thread title?  It's bothering me.

I couldn't agree more.

Fine, but Greece has already defaulted. The ISDA can go suck on barbed wire.