China, 2024

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Preview...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

This is the result of the 2024 Chinese election. The first Democratic elections held in China. The new government elected Liu Xiaobo to be the Premier, but he's made it clear he does not want the job permanently.

There are 47 parties in the new Assembly, but they've organized themselves into 5 basic Alliances. Communist, Conservative, Southern, Regionalist, and Liberal. All members of the Communist alliance backed Bo Xilai for the job, while all the other alliances backed the Conservative candidate.

More backstory to come.

Notes:
Regionalist parties are generally supported by ethnic groups, in particular, Zhuang, Manchu, Uyghur, Mongol, Tibetan, and Korean. They generally support Independence, or, union with other nearby countries.

The ethnic groups Maio, Yi, Tujia, along with spekaers of the languages Wu, Min Bei, Min Nan, Xiang, Gan, Hakka, and Yue, or Cantonese, support the Southern Federation.

Meanwhile, Muslim Hui peoples have so-far voted along with the remainder of the Han population.

[izixs]

I look forward to more in this.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How we got here.

The move to democracy in China was a slow a thoughtful one, much like the remainder of Chinese history. In the years 2011 and 2012, not many would have thought that China was already on the path to free democracy, but in hindsight, it was clear.

Perhaps the first major shift came with a subtle change in Chinese foreign policy. By 2017, China was actively working with Mexico to help them with their drug problem, and China was pushing, hard, to become the best friend of not only African nations, but those in South America too. The polarizing 2012 and 2016 US elections left that country disunited, while both parties continued to move away from each other, making any real progress on the issues difficult if not impossible. China meanwhile was able to focus all of it's resources, and get a leg up on the USA. By 2017, China had overtaken the United States to become the world's largest economy.

The Chinese economy had been booming. The East Coast became only richer while the Rise of Central China marched on. Only in the Northeast were there difficulties in adapting. GDP Per Capita, in 2011 at 10% of the US, was by 2020, 25%.

China remained as a beacon for economic growth, growing at amazing rates despite the stagnation of economies in America and Europe. Some nations in Asia suffered from the prolonged stagnation with great pain. Mongolia and North Korea both suffered severely, while South Korea was able to maintain a steady growth rate. By 2020 it was clear that North Korea would not see the end of the decade, but a strong movement arose in South Korea to oppose reunification on the grounds that it would likely bring the nation into near bankruptcy. Some in the North even secretly began to look to China. Mongolia, suffering from major economic problems, also began to look at other nations. Some proposed a loose union with Russia, similar to the one that nation had been looking at with Belarus and Kazakhstan, but this idea fell flat when rebuffed by the Russians, who privately felt that Mongolia was useless to them. The Mongolian Communist Party then began to look towards China.

By the end of 2020, China, from the outside, looked like the place to be.

Inside it was a different story...

[Simfan34]

Do go on, this is fascinating. So is China the ROC again?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

That's yet to be determined!

[Simfan34]

That's yet to be determined!

Ooh, now you have me.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

A reminder, there are a lot of issues facing China right now here in 2024. You can be a part of solving them here
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142441.new#new
You can be a policy advisor for either the Communists or the Conservatives.



China from the inside.
2015 was the last year Wikipedia was blocked within China. The Government would begin a slow push towards Liberalization. Corruption would be the big issue in the early years, with the Government doing more and more to crack down on it, and, allowing the media to report on it with increasing freedom.

Starting in 2017 there began a split in the country. With the failure of the economic reforms in the Northeast, and the concentration of new jobs in the South, many in the North of China felt left behind. This forced a sudden shift in focus for the Communist governmnet, one they excused as either pro-Mandarin or pro-Han. The assembly vote on the issue saw the largest split ever with over a thousand elected members voting against the new economic plan. It would be the watershed moment for the slow march to democracy in China.

Many of the opponents of the government's plan were in the Kuomintang, which had become a Communist puppet party. The Communists, seeing an opportunity, decided to allow the Kuomintang to drift slowly away from the Communists, in order to create a "real" opposition party that they still had control over. Membership in that party would double between 2016 and 2020 as disaffected people joined.

Perhaps the worst sign of things to come in China was growing racism, where anyone who was not Han or who did not speak Mandarin was seen as stealing jobs away from the "real" Chinese people, IE those in the North of China.

2020 was a benchmark year. 10,000 members of the Communist Kuomintang left the party to create their own alliance of linguistic and ethnic minorities in the South of China. The Communist party was quick to make this new party Illegal, but unlike previous similar problems, they found this new party very difficult to stamp out. As more and more pro-ethnic and pro-minor language groups were founded, more and more of them fought pressure from the central Government, and this in turn only brought more and more people to the cause.



Inside and Out

2021 would be a benchmark year for the Chinese economy. With a staggering 21.8% growth, the government was able to use money to quit the discontent within the country. Manchuira was quickly modernizing it's industrial capacity while the South of China continued to diversify it's economic assets. The year however saw the start of another Global slowdown, and 2022 became a difficult year for all countries, including China.

That year, economic growth was so close to 0 that China was near in a recession. This fermented the already present anger and un-approved protests broke out in many southern cities. The central government, afraid of taking too much or too little action was divided as to how to respond. Hu Jintao and other officials wanted a strong line, while Bo Xilai and others supported the radical idea of open elections, on the grounds that they expected the Communists to be able to win. The schism was divisive, and the most heated debates in the history of Communist China took place over the issue. The chaos only allowed the discontent to spread across China.

By the summer of 2022, more and more of the international media were focused on the problems in China. Bo Xilai's forces were able to win concessions at assembly meetings. The registration of some, limited, opposition parties was allowed, however what they could say was restricted on certain issues. The Southern parties were fractured, as only individual ethnicities and languages were allowed parties, not all of them combined. The Democratic Party, one of China's older banned parties was officially unbanned, but decided to not participate in the process due to the restrictions placed on them.

All of this, however, did not stop what was coming.

In early 2023, the provincial government in Guangdong (Canton), made up of a majority of members from the various opposition parties, declared that it was no longer a part of the Peoples Republic of China, but it was also not a part of the Taiwanese Republic of China. Without declaring independence, the Province announced it was no longer Communist, and that it would be part of the "One Country, Two Systems" plan. The Central Government held a crisis meeting to decide how to respond. Some wanted the tanks to roll in, but without public support others feared that this would only drive the country into civil war. Bo Xilai's forces eventually won out and it was decided to "talk" to solve this problem. Old hardliners like Hu Jintao were forced out of office. Hong Kong, Macao, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Shanghai would eventually join with Guangdong, and together they demanded free elections. Bo Xilai eventually agreed, and a plan was set out for elections in 2024.

The election period would begin on January 1st of that year, with elections taking place in July. The plan was for the elections to take so long that only the Communists would have the resources to make a sustained campaign. Taiwan shocked the world when it announced that it would also partake in the elections. Taiwan would not "join" communist china, but rather, was willing to "devolve" it's federal powers on the condition that the election was free and fair, and, that it could always take those powers back at will. This was seen as a compromise between all of China become ROC or PRC, with the "new" China to be something in between.

When the election was finally held, 47 different parties received enough votes to win seats. The election was a single nation-wide proportional representation ballot. In order to quash any regional fights, only the nation-wide numbers were allowed to be reported. One concession however was that the winning alliance in each county would be allowed to be reported, and thus our map. This map would become a famous symbol in China of the election, and it's clear regional divide would destroy part of the reasoning for avoiding regional results being published.

The first meeting of the new Assembly would see all the non-Communist parties vote for China's first non-Communist government.



Next update: The parties, what they stand for, how they got here. Also, the major issues facing China and the new Government.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

14 Parties allied themselves with the Communist Party.

8 of them part of the Communist "United Front":
Revolutionary Committee of the Kuomintang (Zhongguo Guomindang Geming Weiyuanhui)
China Democratic League (Zhongguo Minzhu Tongmeng)
China Democratic National Construction Association (Zhongguo Minzhu Jianguo Hui)
China Association for Promoting Democracy (Zhongguo Minzhu Cujin Hui)
Chinese Peasants' and Workers' Democratic Party (Zhongguo Nonggong Minzhu Dang)
China Party for Public Interest (Zhongguo Zhi Gong Dang)
September 3 Society (Jiu San Xueshe)
Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League (Taiwan Minzhu Zizhi Tongmeng)

And 6 new parties, including a new Socialist Party.

Many of the more "Conservative" Communists left the Party though the Kuomintang, and now find themselves sitting with the Conservatives. The new Socialist Party is clearly on the left, and began to push the Communists to the left. Among the policies proposed by the Communists were allowing for collective bargaining of labour unions.




16 Parties allied themselves with the Kuomintang. Among them the Democratic Party of China, one of the oldest opposition parties.  Many of these parties are made up of anti-communist allies, and other random pro-freedom groupings. The "Conservatives" are thus without a single unified platform.



Beyond these 32 parties, an additional 15 ran in the election.

7 of these were regionalist parties.

5 are parts of the Southern Federation, each of these are various attempts to unite the various parties.

Lastly, there are 3 Liberal parties.




Next update: The problems facing China.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Here is a list of the various issues facing China.

Taiwan
The country is not yet officially united. The approach to Taiwan needs to be determined. Some in Taiwan do not want the country to join China, others do. The Kuomintang and the Communists both support reunion.

North Korea
There are still elements within North Korea that want annexation by China. The South’s current government does not want the North and will not oppose any moves.

Mongolia
Some elements within Mongolia still desire union with China, but there are concerns over how much power such a Mongolia would have.

Manchuria
Many in the Northeast desire for more control over their local affairs due to the economic troubles in the area.

Tibet
Tibet is of course seeking it’s independence.

South
The South of China is seeking more power, and perhaps even Independence. It will need to be dealt with in some way.

Freedoms
Just how far and how fast to take the new Freedoms is a major issue.

Labour Rights
With the new left-wing Allies of the Communists pushing for Labour rights, this has also become an issue.

Upper House
The creation of an Upper House, or “Senate” of some sort, is also a big issue. With over 3000 members in the “lower” house, there is a drive to create a smaller upper house to focus discussion. There is, however, great debate about how to go about it. This is the #1 issue of the time for the government.

Government
The new Conservative government has been impotent in exercising it’s power.  There has been some movement amongst some of the smaller parties to put the Communists back in power if the price is right.

Other issues, like Taxes, rates, social issues like Gay Rights, Abortion, international issues with regard to the US, or EU, are just not at the top of the priority list for discussion at this time.


Check out the interactive thread
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142441.new#new
to partake in the discussion.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

DISCUSSION ON THE "SENATE"

The parties could not agree to anything. The Conservatives were able to get their idea of senators-per-province passed, while the Communists were able to get agreement for at-wide members. The Liberals meanwhile were able to get their idea for seats elected from the Assembly passed.

With three different plans all passing, there was clear problems. The parties continued to discuss.

A Liberal member has suggested a mix-and-match system. Each of China's 34 provinces will elect a Senators, and each will appoint a Senator. In addition, the assembly members from each province will elect a Senator. 34 Senators will be chosen from the Assembly at large, and 34 elected on a nation-wide PR system, with 34 being appointed by the President.

An issue arose during the discussion, as to what powers the President should have, and how he should be elected.

Unless anyone has other ideas (IE interactive) the Senate proposal is likely to go ahead.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Special note - In order to make the interactive portion of the game work better, I am advancing the game (by two elections)

The official story is that the assembly could not agree to anything, so they held an election, which elected a Communist administration with a minority,



During the election the Hui voted Conservative.

The Conservatives supported Mongolia joining while the Liberals supported the splitting up of Inner Mongolia

The Liberals were the big winners.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Communist goverment fell when the Liberal proposals for Province reform passed. Manchuria would also gain and it swung to the Liberals.



The Liberals gained a near Majority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Democratic Party of China switched allegiances between the Conservative Alliance and the Liberals. This left the Kuomintang as the only party left in the Conservative Alliance.

The Southern Federation united into a single party pushing for more Autonomy within China.

Mongolian Regionalists would join with the Kuomintang and continued to call for Mongolia's joining China.

Xinjaing has seen a lot of violence, and many Han have fled non-Han areas, and vice versa. The Liberals currently have no plans for a referendum, but have not opposed one.

Taiwan is due for a Referendum on weather or not to officially join with the new China.

The Korea Issue is coming to a head.

Three provinces saw border changes in and around Tibetan areas. The current Liberal plan is to Free Tibet, and a Referendum is being planned on the topic. The Communists and Kuomintang are both united in their very strong opposition to any such moves.

The Liberals, with agreement with both Regionalist parties have a majority, and would retain such if both left China. The Liberals thus have been able to form the first stable government in China since 2024.

It is now 2026


The Communist Alliance has 3 parties. The Communist Party of China, which holds 700+ seats. The Socialist Unity Party of China, which holds 350+ and the "United Left Front", which is the remnants of the old United Front puppet parties of the Communists, which hold the other 50 or so seats. Since the resignation of Bo Xilai and the failure of his government, the Cities have swung more towards the Socialists while rural areas remain Communist.

The Liberal Alliance also has 3 parties. The Democratic Party of China, which is the oldest Opposition party in the country, holds 600+ seats, while the "Allied Liberals", which is a coalition of all the Liberal Parties from 2024, hold 550+ seats. The new "Liberal Party of the Regions" hold the remaining 400 or so seats, and has strong support in Manchuria and the South of the country.

Any government must keep in mind that they need to balance the interests of their own political alliance as well as the desires of other parties.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Due to the sudden unexplained lack of interest I'm removing the interactive portion of this