NY: Siena Research Institute: Obama leads everyone by double-digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New York President by Siena Research Institute on 2011-10-14

Summary: D: 55%, R: 37%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

55-37 Obama vs. Romney

58-32 Obama vs. Cain

58-31 Obama vs. Perry

[Eraserhead]

Respectable showing for Romney.

[© tweed]

Respectable showing for Romney.

think he could win Suffolk/Nassau?  60% in Richmond?

[Eraserhead]

Respectable showing for Romney.

think he could win Suffolk/Nassau?  60% in Richmond?

Kind of unlikely considering Bush couldn't even pull any of that off in '04. Obama would have to crash and burn pretty badly which certainly isn't impossible but I wouldn't bet on it.

[© tweed]

Respectable showing for Romney.

think he could win Suffolk/Nassau?  60% in Richmond?

Kind of unlikely considering Bush couldn't even pull any of that off in '04. Obama would have to crash and burn pretty badly which certainly isn't impossible but I wouldn't bet on it.

I just think Romney is built to play in the affluent Northeastern suburbs.  though this may show up more in the Jersey and Connecticut exurbs than on the more complicated LI.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

McCain did well on LI in 2008 considering the beating he took everywhere else. I doubt Romney can take it though. He may get 48% or thereabouts.

[© tweed]

McCain did well on LI in 2008 considering the beating he took everywhere else. I doubt Romney can take it though. He may get 48% or thereabouts.

Bush04 got to about -3.5% off of his national number in Suffolk.  how 9/11 played into this we can only guess.  how close can Mitt get to that?  can he outperform it?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Probably not unless his margin of victory is pretty substantial. I could see him coming close to Bush's 04 performance, but I doubt he can outperform it. We'll see though. LI actually trended to the GOP with McCain running in 2008, and Romney probably plays just as well there.

[© tweed]

wow I didn't even realize that.  Suffolk was more favorable to McCain than the national average and Nassau was within a point.  Al Gore was a long-ass time ago.

[Eraserhead]

wow I didn't even realize that.  Suffolk was more favorable to McCain than the national average and Nassau was within a point.  Al Gore was a long-ass time ago.

9/11 changed everything. And, you know, Obama's skin color.

I guess he won't have to worry about underperforming too much on LI if Cain is nominated!

[© tweed]

there's also the budding Hispanic racial issue which pushes people toward the reactionary.  I think we also have to consider the possibility that Clinton/Gore was the historical exception and not a new rule.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Gore performed incredibly well there in 2000. Actually, Gore performed incredibly well in NJ and LI for a Democrat considering it was basically a 50/50 election. They swung back to the GOP in 2004 and pretty much stayed consistent in 2008 given the national trend.

Again, I doubt Romney wins those counties, but he'll keep them close as long as Obama doesn't win by 7 or so points like he did in 2008.

[Smash255]

Respectable showing for Romney.

think he could win Suffolk/Nassau?  60% in Richmond?

Perhaps he does a point or two better than McCain, but not much better than that.  Moderate Republicans play fairly well (or at least those that comes across as moderates) on LI, but not enough to win.  The religious conservatives (Perry, Bachmann, etc) would get utterly destroyed.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Interesting.

In 2008 (according to Mr. Leip), the New York vote split 62.88 % for Obama, and 36.03 % for McCain.

So, if we subtract one point for “others” from the Undecided category, and allocate the remaining, 4 for Romney and 3 for Obama (undecided’s typically break against the incumbent), the result would be 58 % for Obama, and 41 % for Romney, a 17 point margin instead of the approximately 27 % margin in 2008.

If this is repeated on a national level, Obama is in big trouble even if he carries New York.

Oh, and New York will have fewer Electoral College votes in 2012 than in 2008.

[Eraserhead]

Respectable showing for Romney.

think he could win Suffolk/Nassau?  60% in Richmond?

Perhaps he does a point or two better than McCain, but not much better than that.  Moderate Republicans play fairly well (or at least those that comes across as moderates) on LI, but not enough to win.  The religious conservatives (Perry, Bachmann, etc) would get utterly destroyed.

How do you think Cain would do? LOL.